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It may seem unimaginable, but the incoherence of the Obama administration on Libya got even more incoherent today.

Last week, the president solemnly declared at a White House press conference: “Muammar Qaddafi has lost the legitimacy to lead and he must leave. Those who perpetrate violence against the Libyan people will be held accountable. And the aspirations of the Libyan people for freedom, democracy and dignity must be met.” In case folks missed the message, President Obama repeated his call a few moments later for emphasis: “Let me just be very unambiguous about this. Colonel Qaddafi needs to step down from power and leave.”

Well, apparently that was a little ambiguous for the director of national intelligence. Not withstanding Obama’s call, today DNI James Clapper told Congress, in effect, “that’s not happening.” CNN reports:

Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi appears likely to survive the revolt against him because he commands superior military equipment, the head of the U.S. intelligence community told Congress in a blunt assessment Thursday.

National Intelligence Director James Clapper’s appearance before the Senate Armed Services Committee came as officials in Washington, Europe and the Middle East are debating whether to aid rebel forces in Libya’s civil war. Clapper said the rebels are “in for a tough row” against Gadhafi, whose forces are now moving to retake territory lost since the uprising began in mid-February.

“I do believe Gadhafi is in this for the long haul,” Clapper said. “I don’t think he has any intention, despite some of the press speculation to the contrary, of leaving. From all evidence that we have—which I’d be prepared to discuss in closed session—he appears to be hunkering down for the duration.” Clapper cautioned that the situation is “very fluid,” with government troops attacking opposition forces and then pulling back. But he added, “I think, longer term, the regime will prevail.”

So let’s get this straight. Obama says: “Colonel Qaddafi needs to step down.” And a few days later, his intelligence chief tells Congress “the regime will prevail.”

And why will the regime prevail? Because, Clapper told Congress, the regime commands superior military equipment. Well, might we not rectify that situation, by arming and training the resistance? The White House last week declared that arming the opposition was one of the options “on the table.” Not so fast, said a State Department spokesman, who declared any such aid would be “illegal.”

The White House said a no-fly zone was also an option that was “on the table.” Then Secretary of Defense Robert Gates went before Congress and poured cold water on the idea.

It seems the White House has one policy on Libya, while the State Department, Defense Department, and DNI have another one entirely. This is simply pathetic. It is one thing for the president to speak while the world ignores him. But his own administration? The presidency gets smaller with each passing day.

When the United States boasted about the tough action taken by the UN Security Council on February 26 to impose an arms embargo on Libya, many warned (including me, here) that it looked as though we were in danger of repeating the disastrous mistake made by the Bush-41 and Clinton administrations in Bosnia in the 1990s, when a UN-imposed arms embargo simply empowered the well-armed Serb aggressors while leaving the Bosnians desperately weak. That embargo prolonged the war in Bosnia for three years, during which tens of thousands of people, predominantly Bosnian Muslims, were killed. The United States finally intervened, but only after the Srebrenica massacre and only after Senator Bob Dole and a number of his colleagues pushed through a joint resolution of Congress calling for an end to the arms embargo.

When the actual text of the embargo (UN Security Council Resolution 1970) was published, the language appeared to present less cause for concern, since it declared that:

Member States shall immediately take the necessary measures to prevent the direct or indirect supply, sale or transfer [of arms] to the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya.

Jamahariya is a neologism, made up by Qaddafi out of the Arabic words for “republic” and “masses.” (Interestingly, it is apparently a neologism not only in the usual meaning of “a newly coined term,” but also as used in psychiatry, where “neologism” refers to “the use of words that only have meaning to the person who uses them, independent of their common meaning” and is “considered … a symptom of a thought disorder (indicative of a psychotic mental illness, such as schizophrenia).”)

Thus, it seemed that the embargo language might apply only to the regime and not to the country. Unfortunately, it turns out the State Department doesn’t think so. On Wednesday, State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley announced:

It’s very simple. In the U.N. Security Council resolution passed on Libya, there is an arms embargo that affects Libya, which means it’s a violation for any country to provide arms to anyone in Libya.

When pressed, Crowley elaborated that “it would be illegal for the United States to [give arms to any rebel groups]. It’s not a legal option.”

Meanwhile, over at the White House, Press Secretary Jay Carney tried to rescue his claim on Monday that arming the opposition is “one of the range of options that is being considered.” Today he argued, “We believe that the arms embargo contains within it the flexibility to allow for a decision to arm the opposition, if that decision were made.”

Unfortunately, the basis for this alleged flexibility appears to be that the sanctions committee established by UNSCR 1970 “can issue waivers, including to arm rebel groups.” Such a waiver, administration officials said, “would only be sought after an international consensus develops on the best way to aid the Libyan opposition.” Yesterday, the UN Security Council got around to formally designating Portugal as the chair of the sanctions committee, but it doesn’t seem likely that a UN committee composed of all the members of the Security Council will form an “international consensus” any time soon to arm the Libyan opposition.

So, while the Libyan opposition is losing vital ground to heavily armed Qaddafi forces, the United States is debating what it can do to help under the constraints of a UN resolution that was supposed to have sent a tough message to Qaddafi. Instead, it is sending a demoralizing message to Qaddafi’s opponents.

Tuesday evening, Senators Joe Lieberman and John McCain released a statement calling on the administration to construe the language of UNSCR 1970 narrowly, “to hold open the possibility of providing military aid to the opposition, which presumably does not consider itself part of the ‘Libyan Arab Jamahiriya.’” That’s good advice. It would be good if the administration would listen.

In the Washington Post I argue that the United States should apply the principles of the Reagan Doctrine to Libya by arming and training the Libyan rebels the same way we armed and trained anti-communist fighters in Afghanistan and Nicaragua in the 1980s. I note that the arms embargo adopted by the U.N. Security Council does not have to be an obstacle to such a policy, since the resolution bars providing weapons “to the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya”—the official name of the Libyan government—and the United States can interpret this as a ban on arming government forces, not the rebels.

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Fighting erupted today in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, with al Shabaab militants against Somali government troops and African Union (AU) peacekeepers. So far, more than 22 people have been killed and 80 injured in the most recent round of violence, making today one of the deadliest days since al Shabaab launched its Ramadan offensive on August 23. Residents report clashes throughout the contested districts in the capital. Hizb al Islam militants, who are currently supportive of the al Shabaab offensive, fought in the Hodan district. An attack on AU forces near the parliament building killed a Ugandan peacekeeper and wounded two others, according to the AU spokesman Barigye Ba-Hoku. The parliament building is a mere 500 meters west of the presidential palace.

Al Shabaab has waged an offensive in Mogadishu over the past month with the goal of driving out the African Union Mission in Somalia forces in order to take control of the city. On Monday, an al Shabaab militant blew himself up at the gates of the presidential palace. The Critical Threats Project is currently tracking the al Shabaab offensive in Mogadishu and has produced a map detailing major events since the beginning of the offensive.

Daily reporting on the situation in Mogadishu is available in AEI’s Gulf of Aden Security Review.

Katherine Zimmerman is a Critical Threats Project analyst at AEI.

Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania — Earlier today, global diamond regulator Kimberley Process met in Tel Aviv. Atop the agenda was whether Zimbabwe should be approved, its diamonds made eligible for international trade.

The watchdog, named after the site where diamonds were first found in South Africa, was established in 2004 to prevent trade of “blood diamonds” from abusive governments and conflict-ridden regions.

A Kimberley Process investigation will claim that Zimbabwe is now meeting minimum rights standards in its Marange diamond fields, after it was discovered last year that forced labor and other abuses against civilians were perpetrated by the military.

But there are reasons to doubt this claim. Farai Maguwu is a brave journalist who claims that hundreds of people have either been killed by the Zimbabwean military or died due to practices at the Marange fields in the Manicaland Province of Zimbabwe. Maguwu was arrested on June 3 after allegedly handing a secret document (probably an official Zim Government document) to an official of the Kimberley Process—and he may well be sentenced to a long prison term for this alleged theft of official documents.

With Maguwu unable to present his evidence, the Zimbabwean authorities might well succeed in resuming sales of what look increasingly like “blood diamonds.”

Image by Brian Herrington Spier.