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Al Qaeda officially welcomes al Shabaab

By Katherine Zimmerman

February 9, 2012, 4:12 pm

Al Shabaab is officially an al Qaeda affiliate. This development is not really new, since I and other analysts have assessed that relationship to be real for some time. But for the naysayers, al Qaeda’s media arm just released a video of al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri welcoming al Shabaab to al Qaeda. Is it right, then, to continue to assert that al Shabaab remains a local threat?

The Somalia-based terrorist organization has recently come under military pressure from joint Kenyan, Ethiopian, Somali, and African Union-led operations. Most of al Shabaab’s fighters have been caught up in the fight to protect the organization’s territory, which once extended from the Kenyan border up through central Somalia. Yet not all of al Shabaab is entirely focused on this local fight. A hard-line faction within the leadership has cycled through Somalia’s successive radical Islamist organizations—first al Ittihad al Islamiyya, designated a foreign terrorist organization after 9/11, and then Somalia’s Islamic Courts Union. These leaders, profiled by the Critical Threats Project, subscribe to al Qaeda’s ideology and have more global aspirations.

Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper testified to this distinction between nationalist and radical factions of al Shabaab. He said, “Members of this group—particularly a foreign fighter cadre that includes US passport holders—may also have aspirations to attack the United States.” He added that there are no insights into concrete plots to attack outside of the Horn of Africa, however. But the nationalist and radical factions are not entirely distinct. Al Shabaab’s hardliners rely on the safe havens secured by local fighters to operate, which opens up access to necessary networks to conduct operations. Current military operations in Somalia have begun to disrupt some of these networks, but al Shabaab still has safe havens in the country. And from there, the hardliners will continue to operate.

The fact that Zawahiri and al Shabaab’s leadership decided to announce their relationship publicly at this time is in itself interesting, and merits further examination. For now, though, it is essential for American policymakers to register the fact that an Islamist organization that controls significant territory and resources—including U.S. passport-holders—has declared openly for al Qaeda.

Back when I worked on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in the 1990s, we heard stories of a Liberian warlord who went by the nom de guerre “General Butt Naked.” The general led his troops—the Butt Naked Bridgades—into battle naked because he believed that if he stripped down to his birthday suit he would be immune to bullets.

Despite his humorous name, there was nothing funny about him. Butt Naked was a brutal killer. He claimed that he “met Satan regularly and talked to him” and admitted to taking part in human sacrifices which “included the killing of an innocent child and plucking out the heart, which was divided into pieces for us to eat.” He once told a newspaper reporter, “Sometimes I would enter under the water where children were playing. I would dive under the water, grab one, carry him under and break his neck.” He also claimed to have chopped off peoples’ heads and used them as soccer balls.

After the Liberian civil war ended, Joshua Milton Blahyi (his real name) disappeared and had a conversion experience. He renounced his violent past, and is now an evangelical minister preaching reconciliation. He has his own website and his conversion is the subject of a new film “The Redemption of General Butt Naked.”

You can see a PBS interview with the filmmakers here:

Watch A Warlord’s Quest for Forgiveness in ‘The Redemption of General Butt Naked’ on PBS. See more from PBS NewsHour.

Yesterday, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta visited Camp Lemonier in Djibouti, where he thanked the Marines stationed there for their service. He might have also thanked someone else during his East African stop—the CIA interrogators who uncovered al Qaeda’s plans to blow up Camp Lemonier in an attack that might well have rivaled the 1993 bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut that killed nearly 300 service members.

As I explain in my book, Courting Disaster, in 2004 a Somali terrorist named Hassan Guleed was captured and taken into CIA custody. Guleed worked for an East African al Qaeda leader named Abu Talha al-Sudani—one of the leaders behind the attacks on the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania as well as the bombing of an Israeli-owned hotel in Mombasa, Kenya. Abu Talha appointed Guleed as al Qaeda’s Djibouti cell leader—responsible for locating safe houses, casing targets, assisting in the transfer of funds, and procuring weapons, explosives, and other supplies for the al Qaeda leader. As a result, he knew many details of al Qaeda’s East African operations—including its hideouts, its bank accounts, and its plans for new attacks.

During CIA questioning, Guleed revealed a plot by Abu Talha to attack Camp Lemonier using water tankers loaded with explosives. Guleed told the CIA he had been sent by Abu Talha in September and October 2003 to case the Marine camp, and was tasked by the al Qaeda leader to purchase two rocket-propelled grenades, five AK-47s, and four 9mm pistols. Information from Guleed—including the identities of the operatives associated with the plot—allowed the United States to thwart this attack on our Marines in Djibouti.

As I point out in the current issue of World Affairs, this account of the disrupted plot against Camp Lemonier has been confirmed by none other than WikiLeaks. Earlier this year, WikiLeaks released a trove of documents it dubbed the “Gitmo Files”—including files on Hassan Guleed. According to those WikiLeaks documents, Guleed admitted to the CIA that when captured he was “in the progress [sic] of planning terrorist operations against U.S. coalition personnel and assets in Camp Lemonier.” He told the agency that “in October 2003, the operatives identified a dark red Isuzu water tank truck that delivered water to Camp Lemonier. Subsequently, in December 2003 they agreed on a plan to target Camp Lemonier with an explosives-laden water truck. While operatives still needed to secure funding, a string of arrests in 2004 and September 2005 disrupted the operation.” It was information Guleed provided the CIA that made those arrests possible.

Had al-Qaeda succeeded in carrying out this attack, many Marines might have died and al Qaeda would have struck a major blow against the United States. Camp Lemonier still stands thanks to the skill and hard work of our much-maligned CIA interrogators—and because Hassan Guleed was not read his rights and given a lawyer when he was captured in 2004. That’s a fact Leon Panetta left out of his speech in Djibouti this week.

No one ever accused Zimbabwe’s despot in chief, President Robert Mugabe, of having a sense of humor, and neither apparently do his supporters. Nandos, a South African fast food chain, has pulled its amusing commercial ridiculing Mugabe as Africa’s “last dictator standing.” In the commercial, Mugabe is seen having a water pistol fight with Moammar Ghadafi and riding a tank (with allusions to Titanic’s Di Caprio and Winslett bow shot) with Idi Amin. The commercial was being aired across Southern Africa, but Mugabe’s supporters have threatened staff at Nandos outlets in Zimbabwe and so the company has pulled the commercial. Hopefully it will now get even more views on YouTube.

Roger Bate

PEPFAR and World AIDS Day

By Roger Bate

December 1, 2011, 9:43 am

Today is World AIDS Day and President George W. Bush writes in the WSJ about the progress made against the disease around the world. He appeals for continued HIV funding through the plan (PEPFAR) his administration established eight years ago. While PEPFAR has been a huge success, new infections continue to rise; what was seen as generous assistance a few years ago has now morphed into something else. The largesse of the American people, which is still praised around the world, is now seen as a right by those receiving treatment and by international aid actors always clamoring for money. Since there is no cure, are U.S. taxpayers on the hook for billions of dollars of treatment funding every year from now? Cutting funding to PEPFAR may not be warranted right now even in these straightened financial times, but at some stage we should demand that the countries with the infected take up the cost for treating them.

Roger Bate

Millenium Village a total bust

By Roger Bate

November 29, 2011, 10:51 am

The first independent evaluation of the United Nations Millennium Village project, which aimed to increase incomes of targeted Kenyans by subsidizing agricultural development, has just been published.

To those of us who have seen the Villages or read about the practices at the Villages, it comes as no surprise that there is no increase in income. For while there is an increase in agricultural returns to affected households due to the massively subsidized projects supported by taxpayers, these same households have had to be less innovative in other areas of income generation. No doubt the UN and Columbia University’s Jeff Sachs, who champion the project, will spin their own reasons why this new report is flawed, but for the rest of us it is just another failed aid project.

My colleague Michael Barone has a good piece arguing that the recent celebration of President Obama’s foreign policy victories may be a bit overdone. He is most tentative on Libya, where he writes that it is still unclear how things will work out. That’s certainly correct. We shouldn’t need reminding that the cessation of open conflict in the Middle East is not always followed by a period of tranquil democracy building.

I would just note that the situation with Libya is substantially worse than “let’s wait and see what happens.” What are the great achievements of the Libya campaign? A brutal dictator is gone, of course, which is worth celebrating. But:

1. Was a significant U.S. national interest furthered?

No. Secretary Gates told us there was no such interest at stake.

2. Did it demonstrate the efficacy of NATO?

Just the opposite. NATO looked feeble and split, unable to do much without the United States, incapable of beating a distinctly inferior force for many months, and unlikely to try this again anytime soon, even when our national interests are at stake.

3. Did it establish a model for future multilateral cooperation?

Hardly. We deceived the Russians, Chinese, and others at the UN. We told them it was a limited mission to protect civilians. This led to the Russian Foreign Minister’s wry recent question of how a French fighter jet attacking Qaddafi’s fleeing column was meant to protect civilians. Lest there be any doubt that these UN powers are now in “Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice…” mode, look at the (trivial) UN response to events in Syria (where U.S. interests really are at stake).

It’s good that Gaddafi’s gone, but we degraded public respect for (or fear of) NATO in the process and damaged prospects for future cooperation. Given that the Obama administration initially disavowed regime change as its objective, this is a distinctly limited and costly victory.

Muammar Qadhafi may have been captured alive in Sirte, but it wasn’t long before his dead body was being paraded through the streets of Misrata, a town pulverized by Qadhafi loyalists. The United Nations is predictably demanding an investigation into his alleged summary execution by forces loyal to Libya’s new government. The UN’s outrage is misplaced, though. We should all be glad Qadhafi is dead.

International justice has become a multi-billion dollar industry in which trials last years and justice is seldom served. Serbian dictator Slobodan Milošević died in prison more than four years after his trial began. Liberian dictator Charles Taylor first appeared before the Special Court for Sierra Leone on April 3, 2006; there is still no verdict. While Western diplomats believe a trial provides catharsis and allows for a new beginning, the opposite is actually true: Trials infect open wounds and seldom promote healing. True reconciliation requires beginning with a clean slate. Before his own death and Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein’s capture, Hume Horan, the State Department’s most talented Arabist of the past 50 years, spoke of the importance of seeing Saddam dead rather than on trial. “So long as his pug marks can be seen in the morning around our campfire, Iraqis will not sleep soundly,” Horan wrote in a November 2003 email, adding, “He must be killed… We can pooh-pooh the likelihood of his ever making a comeback. But just that simple word ‘comeback’ must bring on a fainting spell for the likes of Governor [Iskandar] Witwit [of Hillah], who saw his brother’s head hacked off in front of him.”

The international justice industry should back off. It is too infected with its own agenda. When Saddam was captured and put on trial, Human Rights Watch (HRW) refused to provide the Iraqi prosecutors with evidence it had gathered about chemical attacks on Kurds unless the Iraqis agreed to waive capital punishment. HRW might believe they are enlightened, but Iraqis simply saw them for what they were: armchair imperialists.

Perhaps the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights wants to investigate the circumstances of Qadhafi’s death; bureaucrats always want to feel relevant, and tilting at windmills is a UN pastime. But the first question he should ask is if his expensive quest will enable reconciliation or hamper it, and whether justice is best served by Westerners in three-piece suits, or by the Libyans themselves who have put a definitive end to their 42-year nightmare.

Roger Bate

Dictators and double standards

By Roger Bate

October 21, 2011, 9:12 am

This has been a good week for African security. With the demise of Qadhafi, Libya has the chance to move in the right direction. It is also good news that the administration will send troops and otherwise assist in the desired demise of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) in the Great Lakes region of Africa.

But as one despised dictator meets his end in the dirt of his home town in Libya, many other dictators survive to occasionally kill opposition figures, cripple free media, and otherwise suppress their own people. While few have operated on the odious scale of Libya’s former dictator, the leaders still in power in Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Uganda—the list goes on—have all been suppressing opposition for far more than a decade; over 30 years in some cases. None of these are real democracies: elections are more fair in some than in others, but they all foment understandable dissent. While the LRA is odious, it has at least partially been able to find succor and support because of the myriad dictatorships it has operated within.

Supporting dictators apparently friendly to our interests often seems like the right move at the time. But as history repeatedly shows, advantages from such support often disintegrate over time, sometimes becoming counterproductive (think Mugabe and Mobuto). I suspect one day we will regret having provided staunch support for Meles, Museveni, and even Kagame.

Thus always to tyrants.

Qadhafi’s death is the capstone of the Libyan revolution. It also marks the fall of Sirte, one of the last strongholds of Qadhafi loyalist fighters. Mahmoud Jibril, the interim prime minister from Libya’s National Transitional Council (NTC), has stated that once Sirte falls (which it now has) he will officially declare the “liberation of Libya” and then step down. The NTC would then move to Tripoli and an interim government would take over and oversee the transition to national elections slated to be held eight months later.

Five questions about Libya’s future stand out:

FIGHTING: Does Qadhafi’s death mean the end of fighting? The desert town of Beni Walid still holds out and it remains to be seen whether news of the Colonel’s demise will convince his partisans there to put down their guns.

GOVERNANCE: Will the rebels and the NTC be able to manage post-conflict security issues—particularly protecting civilians and infrastructure, preventing looting and revenge killings? Amnesty International has already reported prisoner abuse in rebel-run detention facilities.

LEGITIMACY: Will the Libyan rebel leadership be able to build its legitimacy in a post-war Libya? While the Benghazi-based NTC is the internationally recognized authority in Libya, it is not accepted as the main authority by all the rebel movements in Libya. Misrata’s rebel leadership in particular has tried to maintain its independence from decision-making in Benghazi.

TRIBES: Will the rebel leadership be able to bring on board those tribes and parts of the population that supported Colonel Qadhafi, such as his own Qadadfa tribe? If Qadhafi’s tribesmen or those who supported him see a bleak future for themselves under the new regime, it may encourage them to keep fighting or to turn their resistance into an insurgency.

DISARMAMENT: Will the rebel leadership be able to demobilize, disarm, and reintegrate all the men who took up arms against Qadhafi and who, for the past several months, have operated as part of loosely coordinated militia forces? And will the new Libyan government (and NATO) be able to clamp down on all of Libya’s loose weapon systems? Ever since the war started there have been reports of arms markets being flooded with looted Libyan goods; some have reportedly been destined for Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Securing Libya’s weapon stockpiles and the surfeit of small arms and heavy weaponry currently in the hands of rebel fighters will likely have a big impact on the future security of the country and, indeed, the whole region.

What appears to be authentic footage from Sirte shows deposed Libyan dictator Muammar Gadhafi’s naked body lying in the street, being dragged around by victorious government forces. After more than four decades of terrorizing his country and much of the world, Gadhafi has followed so many a tyrant from the heights of power to licking the dust. Hitler, Mussolini, Ceausescu, Hussein, Gadhafi. There will always be more, and we may be complicit in not stopping such monsters earlier, but justice often still manages to triumph.

Marc Thiessen

Re: Justice for Qadhafi

By Marc Thiessen

October 20, 2011, 10:18 am

Dany has a great post of Gadhafi’s reported demise. One of the reasons Gadhafi gave up his WMD programs after the liberation of Iraq was that he did not want to end up like Saddam. So this line from the Reuters report on Gadhafi’s capture/death is particularly ironic:

An anti-Gadhafi fighter said Gadhafi had been found hiding in a hole in the ground.

No word on whether it was a “spider hole.”

Reports and even a photograph have emerged from Libya that appear to confirm Qadhafi’s death. Another quick thought about the implications of this dictator’s bloody end: this only underscores the choice before the Assads and the Salehs of the region. Like Saddam and Muammar, they can go out under a bloody sheet or at the end of a rope. Like Mubarak, they can go out in a cage. Or they can bow out reasonably gracefully, like Tunisia’s Ben Ali, and allow their country the opportunity to reform and transition. For those dictators who are clinging to power at the point of a gun, that condo next to Ben Ali should start to look pretty good right around now.

Danielle Pletka

Justice for Qadhafi (Update)

By Danielle Pletka

October 20, 2011, 8:41 am

Justice is sweet. If it is true that Muammar Qadhafi has indeed been captured or even killed, as is being claimed, this is an auspicious moment. First, it is the Libyan people who have liberated themselves. Second, they did so with support from countries who shared their moral cause. Third, Libya appears prepared for a genuine transition (unlike some, ahem, Egypt).

If Qadhafi has indeed been captured and is still alive, we then turn to questions about how justice will be served. Many in Europe (and naturally at the United Nations) will demand that he be rendered to the International Criminal Court. Other self-appointed arbiters of justice will demand Qadhafi be spared the threat of the death penalty. But the choice should belong to the long suffering Libyan people alone.

Finally, on this day, let’s remember the families and victims of the Qadhafi-sponsored attack on Pan Am 103.

Next for the dock: Bashar el Assad.

UPDATE:  It is now being reported that Qadhafi may have been killed, which renders moot the question of whether and how he would be tried. More soon.

I highly recommend the article published today in South Africa’s Business Day by George Pieler.

In it he explains how the malaria community has decided to get in bed with the notorious, illegitimate, despotic leader of Equatorial Guinea. I know malaria funds are under pressure due to the economic situation, but providing good public relations to President Obiang in return for funds is not the solution.

In Wednesday night’s debate, Texas Governor Rick Perry had the following to say when it came to foreign conflicts: “I don’t think America needs to be in the business of adventurism.” He added, “Americans don’t want to see their young men and women going into foreign countries without a clear reason that American interests are at stake. They want to see a clear exit strategy as well.” Red meat from a red state governor. But who eats red meat these days? Even the heartiest of Texans I know at least sear their steaks on both sides before digging in. So, before Perry and his team allow this to become a rote talking point, they ought to think twice before serving it up again.

First, the idea that Americans should not be “in the business of adventurism” is a truism. No one thinks otherwise. The real question is which military operation does he refer to? Presumably, he doesn’t think removing the Taliban and their al Qaeda guests from Afghanistan was such an operation. Is Iraq what he has in mind? It seems doubtful, since he’s never suggested it was such, and the war to remove Saddam Hussein was overwhelmingly supported by conservatives within his own party. No, presumably, the governor was referring to the Obama administration’s decision to help our allies remove Gaddafi from power. As political rhetoric goes, this was clever indeed. By not saying “Libya,” Perry leaves open whether he was opposed to the campaign. At the same time, he suggests to many of the conservatives who were against the military mission that he is on their side. But being clever is not being presidential.

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On Monday, the United Nations added a sixth area in Somalia to the country’s list of famine-stricken regions. The food crisis devastating East Africa has hit Somalia the hardest, affecting nearly 4 million people there alone. The spread of famine further south to the Bay region means that an additional 750,000 Somalis are at risk of starving to death in the next fourth months. The UN expects these conditions to reach two neighboring regions on the border with Kenya, endangering even more lives. This bleak outlook begs the question: what can be done to stop the humanitarian crisis?

Unfortunately, the case of Somalia is further complicated by its volatile security environment and the presence of the radical Islamist group al Shabaab, which controls large parts of the country—including those in the south most affected by the famine. Katherine Zimmerman, Gulf of Aden team lead at AEI’s Critical Threats Project, will testify at 2 p.m. before the House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, and Human Rights on the challenges of providing humanitarian assistance in al Shabaab-controlled Somalia. Some key points from her testimony:

•    The greatest obstacle to the provision of humanitarian assistance in Somalia is denial of access by al Shabaab, which not only creates a prohibitive security environment, but also restricts humanitarian operations in southern Somalia.

•    Al Shabaab has banned many international aid agencies from operating within territories under its control. The group has enforced this ban with violence: militants raid local offices, destroy foodstuffs and medical supplies, and kidnap aid workers. The group’s actions against aid organizations have created the humanitarian emergency that many Somalis now face.

•    The international community should not cling to the false belief that a humanitarian operation in southern Somalia could be successfully accomplished without ground forces supporting the mission. There is a high likelihood that any such operation, which would entail establishing security in the heartland of al Shabaab’s territory, would be met with significant armed resistance.

Watch the hearing, “Addressing the Humanitarian Emergency in East Africa,” live or read the full text of Katherine’s testimony.

State is the monthly in-house magazine of the U.S. Department of State. Every issue features a “Post of the Month” which shows life and the American embassy or consulate’s activities in a particular city or country. (I had a bit of tongue-in-cheek fun with the feature a few years back in The Weekly Standard). In September 2010, the State Department decided to feature Tripoli, Libya. Some of the insights:

Today, the Defense Attaché’s Office is cultivating a growing relationship with the Libyan military. Cooperative programs have included military leadership visits and exchanges, working-level discussions with U.S. Africa Command staff, familiarization trips to U.S. military facilities, International Military Education and Training programs, a U.S. Coast Guard ship visit and technical advising for Libya’s C-130 transport aircraft fleet.

That was a wise long-term investment.

The Embassy also worked to line up U.S. investors.

American companies have returned in large numbers, focusing on infrastructure development, consulting and program management, and the oil and gas services industry. In February, the embassy hosted the first U.S. government-led trade mission to Libya in nearly 40 years, with participation by 25 U.S. companies specializing in energy, infrastructure, health care, telecommunications, transportation and other key economic sectors. In May, the United States and Libya signed a bilateral Trade and Investment Framework Agreement, which will pave the way for closer engagement on commercial issues.

It will be interesting to see what happens to those investments, and whether the Transitional National Council holds grudges against those companies that sought to ingratiate themselves to dictator Muammar Qadhafi’s regime. Sometimes, if liberty is the first investment, the dividends last more than 11 months.

When it comes to the re-opening of the U.S. embassy, State writes, “The recent warming of bilateral relations comes against the backdrop of a long and complicated relationship.” Only under Hillary Clinton would it be possible for the State Department not to acknowledge that Qadhafi’s transformation of Libya into a terrorist state is the reason for such complications. Nor did the State Department report honestly on the restrictions suffered by American diplomats.

At least life in Tripoli was decent for America’s pampered representatives:

It is not easy setting up a new mission, but Embassy Tripoli employees still find time for fun. In addition to bargaining for antiques in the souks of the old quarter, staffers usually head to the gorgeous beaches near Tripoli on weekends. Archaeological tourism is popular; Libya is home to some of the most impressive Phoenician, Greek and Roman ruins in the world. Desert tourism to Tuareg outposts in the South such as Ghat and Ubari offers Saharan lakes, pre-historic rock art and a glimpse of caravan routes that have changed little in hundreds of years. Recreation options include tennis courts, a stadium for jogging and walking and a “sand” golf course. Those needing a real break can quickly fly to Tunis, Malta and points further afield in Europe.

If only Libyans could be so lucky. Maybe now they can, and perhaps the State Department will do some soul-searching about its embrace of dictator-chic culture.

President Obama should be congratulated on Libyan dictator Muammar Qadhafi’s fall. While criticism of the White House over its squandering of momentum remains legitimate—had Obama acted earlier and with more force, the civil war might not have so devastated Libya’s infrastructure and population—Obama nevertheless made the right decision to intervene. It was not only a good humanitarian call for the people of Benghazi, but also important for U.S. national security interests. The last thing North Africa needed was for tens of thousands of armed Benghazi residents to flee as refugees into an already de-stabilized Egypt.

Obama should not celebrate just yet. Over at Commentary, where I blog more regularly, I highlight two orders which Obama should give immediately.

  1. First, he should order the re-capture of released Lockerbie bomber Abdelbaset Mohmed Ali al-Megrahi.
  2. Second, he should move to protect the documents left behind by Qadhafi. The Libyan archives will be a treasure trove of information about malfeasance not only by Qadhafi and his cronies, but also by his American interlocutors, from Billy Carter to Gary Hart to Louis Farrakhan.

Roger Bate

Mugabe’s Torture Camp

By Roger Bate

August 8, 2011, 8:40 am

Last month I wrote about the brutal diamond mining operations overseen by Robert Mugabe, despotic president of Zimbabwe. Now it appears the situation was worse than I had explained. In an area called Zengeni, Western observers have described a torture camp. This camp, less than one mile from the main Marange field diamond mine, houses men and women who are forced to dig out the diamonds, and are beaten, raped, and killed for not working hard enough. Here’s a fuller account of this terrible story.

With Growing Isolationism, We Need Obama to Lead Now More Than Ever

By Alex Della Rocchetta

June 14, 2011, 6:36 pm

Libyan rebels recently broke through a Qaddafi government blockade on their approach to Tripoli, as opposition forces across the country mount an aggressive resurgence amid an intensified NATO air campaign. According to recent opinion polls, however, rebel success has not translated into an increase in American public support for the war. This is indicative of a growing isolationist sentiment espoused by the U.S. public.

According to a new Rasmussen Reports survey, just 26 percent of likely United States voters feel that the U.S. should continue to engage in military action in Libya. Meanwhile, 42 percent are opposed and 32 percent remain undecided on the issue. As Congress ponders the merits of executive unilateralism in Libya, the survey found that 59 percent of voters believe that President Obama should seek the approval of Congress if he plans to continue U.S. military action in the country. The number marks a jump in support for congressional authorization from when President Obama initially committed U.S. military resources to the Libyan mission in mid-March. The increase is not just reflective of public opinion on the powers of the executive, but is evidence of a growing sentiment of isolationism in the U.S.

The June 10 Pew Research Center poll provides evidence that Americans are becoming more isolationist. Indeed, the center reports that the present assessment of isolationist sentiment is the highest recorded in over four decades. There are other indications of the public’s reservations on American engagement in the world. Seventy-seven percent of those surveyed declare it is more important for President Obama to engage with U.S. domestic policy, a stark contrast to the 9 percent who state that the president should focus more on foreign policy.

Whether this trend can be partially attributed to skepticism about achieving success in the “war on terror” or to domestic economic turmoil, the repercussions of an isolationist streak are considerable. It would be damaging for the current public sentiment to push the U.S. to fully extricate itself from humanitarian intervention and bold policies amid the havoc of the Arab Spring.  Engaging with Libya, Syria, Egypt, Yemen, etc. is necessary and fundamental, as it allows the United States to be an active participant in shaping a friendlier Middle East, in line with democratic values and stability.

In order to combat the trend of American isolationism and salvage public support for the mission in Libya, President Obama must stage an immediate reversal from his approach implemented at the outset, one characterized by ambiguity and inconsistency. Indeed, the president must now present clear and consistent objectives on the direction that the war is heading. In the manner of the congressional resolution sponsored by House Speaker John Boehner and his subsequent written warning released Tuesday, which directs the president to explain the United States’ purpose in Libya, President Obama must engage in a candid dialogue with Congress and the public.

If the administration had articulated a coherent approach and unambiguous justification from the outset, it is reasonable to assume that the poll numbers on Libya would look significantly more promising.

Suicide Attacks a Reminder of Terrorists’ Strength in Somalia

By Katherine Zimmerman

June 10, 2011, 5:27 pm

The spate of suicide attacks in Mogadishu – three in two weeks – could be an indicator that the gains after recent offensives were only temporary. Just Monday, the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) reported that additional districts in the Somali capital had been cleared of al Shabaab militants. Al Shabaab, a radical Islamist group with ties to al Qaeda, already controls much of southern and central Somalia.

Today, an al Shabaab female suicide bomber killed the Somali Interior Minister. Reportedly, she had been staying with him in his home near the KM4 intersection in Mogadishu. The AMISOM headquarters are nearby, and KM4 serves as a key transit point for AMISOM and Somali government troops and supplies.

Yesterday, two al Shabaab suicide bombers attacked the main seaport. The attack killed one civilian and injured three AMISOM peacekeepers.

And on May 30, al Shabaab attacked AMISOM’s Shakala base along Makka al Mukarama Road, the main supply route. The attempted suicide attack killed two AMISOM peacekeepers and injured four others.

The AMISOM peacekeeping force, now an estimated 9,100 troops, is still shy of its mandated 12,000 troops. The force supports the weak UN-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG). Recent offensives increased the areas under the Somali government’s control, but there was not a comparative increase in government or AMISOM troops to hold the gains.

As changes sweep through the Arab world and demand attention, Somalia cannot be forgotten.

Katherine Zimmerman is a Critical Threats Project Analyst and Gulf of Aden Team Lead at AEI.

In the 1986 book What Is Africa’s Problem?, the author writes that: “The problem of Africa in general and Uganda in particular is not the people but leaders who want to overstay in power.” The author of the book was Yoweri Museveni, who was about to become President of Uganda. Today he is re-elected for the fourth time after having been in the job for 25 years already. His country, which has received billions in aid, is in serious trouble with increasing inflation and political unrest. The opposition leader Kizza Besigye has been harassed, and he claims the recent election won by Museveni was rigged.

While observers gave mixed reports on election intimidation, there is little doubt that whatever good the president did for his country, his time has long past. But on he goes, ignoring his own prescient analysis and dragging his country down with him. Perhaps as big a disaster is that donors will not punish his behavior. They’ll carry on funding his AIDS programs, schools, and other special projects that they can show to their own electorate as evidence that their aid saves lives, regardless of the fact that at some stage they will be on the wrong side in Uganda, just as they were in Egypt, Tunisia, and many other places further north.

Some clarity is needed in the debate about what to do in Libya. Some may support intervention. Others will oppose. But they should do so without illusions about the state of play. Some shibboleths that need addressing:

We have no national interest in Libya

We may once have had no national interest in Libya, but Muammar Qadhafi, the Libyan people, and our own president have forced that interest upon us. The president of the United States has (rightly) said Qadhafi must go. If the United States now accepts Qadhafi remaining, that will be a serious blow to our national prestige, with global implications. Perhaps he should not have said it, but unless someone can turn back time, cat’s out of the bag.

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Jean-Pierre Filiu

Revolutions Mean Hard Times for Al Qaeda

By Jean-Pierre Filiu

March 11, 2011, 8:37 am

This may prove one of the most daunting challenges confronting al Qaeda now: how is the global jihadi network going to survive, in the near or distant future, the inevitable fall of Moammar Qaddafi? Let’s face it: Osama Bin Laden could remain quiet since the beginning of the Arab uprising, some three months ago in Tunisia, because he had found with the Libyan ruler the perfect partner in his propaganda war. Qaddafi has repeatedly said that the rebels who dare to resist him are just a bunch of Bin Laden’s young operatives, high on drugs generously provided by al Qaeda (the Libyan leader even explained a short-lived lull in the insurgency by the fact that drugs were “wearing out”!).

This tragic farce had an invaluable side-effect for the jihadis: it rejuvenated their big fantasy of global boogeyman, at a moment when the revolutionary movements in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya are practically pushing al Qaeda to the limbos. Even more important, Qaddafi saved Bin Laden the trouble of speaking the unspeakable, of trying to cope with the magnitude of the collapse of anything al Qaeda stood for. Other jihadi luminaries have failed miserably in that regard. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghrib’s (AQIM) call for support of the Tunisian revolution was issued on the eve on Ben Ali’s departure and went unnoticed in Tunisia. Al Qaeda in Iraq, at the height of the occupation of Tahrir, with Egyptian flags all over the square, warned the protesters against “the putrid idolatry of patriotism.” And Ayman al-Zawahiri, Bin Laden’s Egyptian deputy, waited one week after President Hosni Mubarak’s fall to issue a message designed as though the deposed president was still ruling Cairo.

So those are hard times for al Qaeda: movements which managed to stay peaceful in Tunisia and Egypt were able to topple in a few weeks regimes the jihadis could not destabilize over the past two decades; masses went bravely into the streets to demand democracy, transparency, and accountability, concepts alien and even heretic for al Qaeda; and the American “far enemy,” instead of backing the autocrats all the way, facilitated their stepping down. What is even worse for al Qaeda is that nobody cares anymore in the Arab world about the jihadi statements, which find their main audience in the West. Bin Laden and his followers now pray for some counterrevolution to succeed here or there, in order to reharness their propaganda and machinery. They displayed many times in the past their capacity to make their best out of the Arabs’ worst. And they now hope Qaddafi will remain as long as possible in power, because he could emerge as the last true believer in al Qaeda’s power and influence.

Jean-Pierre Filiu is a professor at Sciences Po, Paris, and Columbia, New York, and author of “Apocalypse in Islam.”

Image by the U.S. Army.


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