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North Korea’s much-awaited party conference kicked off in Pyongyang Tuesday with a news release announcing the promotion of Kim Jong Il’s 28-year-old third son, Kim Jong Eun, marking what is undoubtedly a transition to the third generation of family rule in North Korea and a continuation of the country’s military-first policy.

In a surprise move, Kim Jong Il promoted his sister Kim Kyung Hee and Kim Jong Eun to four-star generals in the Korean People’s Army. The military promotions of Kim’s sister—who despite her lack of military experience and general disinterest in politics will serve as regent to the youngest Kim and deputy to Kim Jong Il—and Kim Jong Eun send a clear message that the survival and legitimacy of the Kim family regime depends on the military and not the People’s Party. While the younger Kim will likely be given a civilian post as well, he is first and foremost a member of the military and has begun his transition to Supreme Commander. North Korea will continue to be run as a military-first dictatorship rather than a communist state, offering little hope that the country will pursue policies of reform and opening anytime soon.

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Checkbook Diplomacy, Take Two

By Leslie Forgach

September 23, 2009, 2:47 pm

This week Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada reiterated in an interview in The Financial Times that his country would not extend its refueling mission in the Indian Ocean in support of U.S.-led anti-terrorism operations in Afghanistan. Japan is instead considering providing more aid to Afghanistan. The move to replace “boots on the ground” with aid is inconsistent with Tokyo’s goal to assume greater responsibility on the world stage, as well as within the U.S.-Japanese alliance.

This announcement comes as no surprise—a key foreign policy objective that the newly elected Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) stated during the election was to end the refueling mission, in which Japanese Maritime Self Defense Forces (MSDF) refueled coalition ships headed to the Gulf. But the DPJ may have forgotten an important lesson from the first Gulf War. Japan was severely criticized by the international community when instead of sending troops to the region, it sent $13 billion. Countries who sent troops into harm’s way chastised Japan for contributing solely money.

Two decades later a rookie DPJ may repeat the mistake of reverting to “checkbook diplomacy.” Undoubtedly the DPJ is trying to differentiate itself from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), who defined Japanese foreign policy over the course of its 54-year tenure. While the DPJ may have won a majority, they did not win a mandate. Faced with a floundering economy and scandal-ridden bureaucracy, Japanese constituents voted the LDP out of power because they wanted change at home, not abroad. In fact, nearly 50 percent of Japanese voters feel more confident with a LDP-led foreign policy; 33 percent support a DPJ one. A proactive foreign policy espoused by the former government continues to be backed by a Japanese populace, who are more aware of dangers abroad, overwhelmingly favor the U.S.-Japanese alliance, and increasingly support Japanese Self Defense Force missions.

This retreat in Japanese foreign policy would also undermine the country’s quest to become a global stakeholder. For nearly two decades, Japan has been trying to come to terms with a role in international security affairs that is commensurate with its role as an economic powerhouse. In 2001, LDP Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi took the events of September 11 as an opportunity to advance Japan’s foreign policy by creating a proactive role for the pacifist nation in security affairs. The refueling mission was one such advance that enabled Japan to contribute “on the ground” in the war on terror and the war in Afghanistan. Japan proved it was willing to invest human capital by sending its troops on the mission.

As the United States struggles to commit more of its own troops and to maintain the support of coalition forces already in the region, it now also risks losing a credible commitment from one of its key allies. Certainly Afghanistan would benefit from more aid, but the Pentagon has made it clear the MSDF mission is invaluable to coalition efforts in combating terrorism. If the DPJ truly wants to elevate Japan as an “equal partner” in the U.S.-Japanese alliance, as it often claims, it’s going to have to do more than send a check.

Leslie Forgach is a research assistant at the American Enterprise Institute.


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