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Our colleague Henry Olsen got it just right in his early assessment of Democrat Kathy Hochul’s victory in NY-26 when he said, “The verdict is clear. For whatever reason, the blue-collar Independents and Democrats who voted Republican in droves last year did not vote GOP tonight.” It should be a wake-up call for the GOP, as Olsen says, not to back away from entitlement reform, but to “address the real concerns of these pivotal voters.”

One of the themes in President Obama’s State of the Union speech was the need to update U.S. infrastructure to fulfill the promise of the American Dream. “We need the fastest, most reliable ways to move people, goods, and information—from high-speed rail to high-speed Internet.” A new Rockefeller Foundation survey from the bipartisan polling team of Public Opinion Strategies and Hart Research suggests the public places a higher priority on other transportation needs than on a high-speed rail system.

•    When asked about improving transportation infrastructure where they lived, 38 percent said they would improve the roads, followed by 20 percent who said they would provide more or better public transportation. “More or better rail systems” ranked last. Six percent said they would embrace it.

•     Eighty-five percent favored a “fix it first” policy before building new systems.

•     When asked about specific points from President Obama’s State of the Union speech, 68 percent strongly agreed with the idea of “providing funding for transportation projects based on what is best for the economy, not based on politics.” Forty-four percent strongly agreed with the notion that “building a high-speed rail system in the United States will be a benefit to travelers and to the U.S. economy.” In terms of strong support, high-speed rail was the least popular of five items tested.

•    Taxes and fees were unpopular across the board. Fifty-one percent said it was unacceptable to provide additional funding for national transportation projects by placing a new tax on foreign oil. Fifty-eight percent in another question objected to replacing the federal gas tax with a fee based on miles driven, 64 percent said it was unacceptable to add new tolls or increase tolls on bridges and highways, and 71 percent opposed increasing the 18-cent federal gas tax, which the pollsters told people “has not been increased since 1983.”

•     Sixty-five percent of employed people in the survey reported having a commute of less than half an hour. In a separate question, 56 percent said their commute was about the same as it was five years ago, while 22 percent said it was longer, and 18 percent shorter. Sixty-one percent speculated that if transportation in their area were improved, it would save them less than 30 minutes each week.

Image by Matthew Black.

Although we don’t know at this point how many Democrats and Republicans will sit together at the State of the Union tomorrow night, some high-profile members like liberal Democrat Chuck Schumer and conservative Republican Tom Coburn have agreed to date. Americans seem to like the idea. Seventy-two percent in a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll said Republicans and Democrats should sit next to each other on both sides, while 22 percent wanted the parties to sit on opposite sides. Republicans are less enthusiastic about Tuesday’s date night. Thirty-eight percent of them want members to sit on opposite sides, compared to 15 percent of Democrats and Independents. A new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll released yesterday showed that 56 percent thought it was a good idea to break tradition and have lawmakers sit with each other to show they are serious about toning down the debate, but 39 percent said it was a silly idea that would mainly be just for show and not really mean anything in the long run.

As for civility, 39 percent in a mid-January Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll said the tone of political debate in the country had reached a new low and was unnecessarily negative and dangerous, but 53 percent said that this kind of debate has always gone on and reflects genuine differences in political beliefs. Forty-five percent of Democrats and 64 percent of Republicans said it has been ever thus.

Image by ilovebutter.

In anticipation of the State of the Union speech next week, most major pollsters are assessing President Obama’s standing at the halfway point of his term. The editors of AEI’s Political Report have collected many of the new ones. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, like an ABC News/Washington Post poll taken at about the same time, showed an uptick in Obama’s ratings, likely a result of the good feeling after the lame-duck session, a few green economic shoots, and the president’s reaction to the Tucson tragedy. Will the improved ratings last?

Americans still want President Obama to succeed, and they rate him highly on many personal attributes. A new Gallup poll shows, for example, that 61 percent are satisfied with his strong moral character. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll finds 74 percent rating him highly on having good family values. But performance is key, and here the numbers must worry the White House. In the same CNN poll that showed an uptick in the president’s approval rating, half said that his policies would move the country in the right direction. But almost that many, 46 percent, said they would move the country in the wrong direction. Forty-seven percent in an early January Quinnipiac poll thought his first two years had been mainly a success, but 45 percent called them mainly a failure. The proportion that likes him personally and approves of most of his policies in the December NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll was 37 percent. Particularly troubling in many recent polls are the low marks the president gets from whites. Working-class whites, as our colleague Henry Olsen has written, deserted the party in droves in 2010.

In addition to the in-depth look at the president, the January AEI Political Report examines attitudes about Michelle Obama, the healthcare bill, trade, and much more.

A new poll from Gallup and USA Today asked people about how important it was for the lame-duck Congress to take action on six different things. A solid majority, 56 percent, said it was very important to pass legislation that would keep the estate tax from increasing significantly next year. In terms of major importance, this was the top issue in the poll, outranking extending unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed (48 percent said that was very important), allowing gay men and women to serve in the military (32 percent), and passing the DREAM act (31 percent). The only item to come close in terms of high importance was extending some form of federal income tax cuts passed under President Bush that are set to expire (50 percent said this was very important).

Virtually every poll I’ve ever seen shows that Americans don’t like the estate tax. The sentiment is broad and deep. In this poll, 68 percent of Republicans, 54 percent of Independents, and even 48 percent of Democrats said it was very important to keep the tax from increasing.