The Enterprise Blog

Author Archive

So far, the chief criticism of Coming Apart is that I don’t acknowledge globalization and the disappearance of high-paying, unionized manufacturing jobs in creating the problems that afflict white working-class America. I have responded to that criticism elsewhere, but my technical arguments can’t respond to the larger myopia: The people making such arguments are incredibly out of touch with life as it is lived in working-class America (which relates to another theme of Coming Apart: the isolation of the elite). No one who is around those neighborhoods at ground level is under any illusion about the problems I describe.

Readers who don’t live in such neighborhoods can get a sense of what’s going on by engaging in conversation with the guys (or gals) who next come to your house to fix the wiring or clean the gutters or repair the deck. Ask about their friends and neighbors—who’s getting jobs in this economy, who’s not, and why. If you hire someone who has a small business, ask him what it’s like to try to find workers who will show up on time and do a good job. Start by saying that surely they have no problem in an economy with eight percent unemployment, and listen to them laugh. Or talk to teachers in schools that serve white working-class America. Here’s an email, edited to preserve anonymity, that I got yesterday.

I have never been so moved to write to an author, but after I finished your book, I had to share my response. I am a teacher who has lived in many parts of the country. In college, I spent one summer as a nanny for a family in Rye, NY. I have taught at a 50/50 black/white private high school in St. Louis. I have taught in a private school outside of Georgetown, Texas, where a couple of my students were the grandchildren of one of the former presidents of Yale. Then we decided to move back to my grandparents’ farm in Oklahoma. I taught in more of a Fishtown in Kansas, and am currently teaching in a school in a small town (shall I say Lower Fishtown?) in Oklahoma. Here you’d have to look hard to find a true nuclear family, no one on the school board has a full-time job, and last we calculated, we weren’t sure any of them had high school diplomas.

I have marveled at the contrasts in the people in some of these places: Rye & Georgetown vs. small town Kansas & Oklahoma. Your book really hit home. Definitely these kids where I now teach come from broken families. Religion does not seem to play an important part in their lives, although most of them would claim to be Christian. They are extremely dishonest. Many have blatantly lied to me, and there are few that I feel I can trust. Work ethic is a huge struggle. These kids have no concept of the upper end of society where kids are competing for the top colleges, where parents go over their graded assignments and argue for every point. I’m not sure if I’ve ever had a parent examine an assignment where I am now. Some students have observed how their parents and grandparents have managed to survive with no one working, so why should they bother to work? They have nicer cell phones than I do. How much of this attitude can we as a society sustain? If this little town is one of many—and I suspect it is—the future is bleak.

As I was looking over some online comments regarding Coming Apart, I was very disappointed at how few people get it. They keep falling back on the economic disadvantages and don’t want to face the fact that morality could matter. Their world (along with Rye & Georgetown) is so far removed from Fishtown. They have no idea. No idea about these kids that despite their opportunity at an education, don’t take it, even if it is at a Fishtown School. In my current school in Oklahoma, virtually any of these kids could go to college for free, but none of them have the model of work ethic to do the work that it takes.

I’m not cherry-picking. I have gotten other emails like that—but few that so graphically express the cultural divide that has opened up between classes that not so long ago shared the same values.

James Bamford, whose track record on all things associated with the National Security Agency (NSA) is excellent, has a chilling article in Wired about the NSA’s newest facilities and capabilities. They are jaw-dropping. In effect, he is telling us that once the new Utah facility is operational, everything that an American citizen does that involves electronic communication will be captured by NSA—emails, purchases, cell phone calls, text messages. Everything. Bamford doesn’t say it, but I assume that NSA can also do what hackers can do: Get access to the entire contents of disk drives.

Contemplating this capability, we are beyond having to ask whether NSA will watch over the most private affairs of American citizens. That’s already happening, under guidelines that the government assures us limits surveillance to those citizens who pose a threat. The only question is how fast the definition of “threat” will expand from people who pose a clear and present danger of mounting a terrorist attack to people who pose whatever kind of threat is dear to the heart of the administration in power.

We already have an abundance of horror stories about what happens to citizens when the federal government decides to go after them for an infraction of one of its uncountable rules and regulations. I know, and I bet most readers know, of friends and acquaintances who have done nothing wrong except to run afoul of a bureaucrat’s interpretation of a regulation and have been given the bleak choice, “Agree to the penalty we have decided upon, or try to fight it and we will ruin you completely.” Some of you have faced such a choice yourself. That’s what we’ve got now. Those of us old enough to remember also know how steep the trajectory of federal arrogance has been over the last several decades. Put the trajectory and the current situation together, and it is not paranoia but realism to expect that the capabilities NSA is developing will eventually be used as a tool for the executive branch to monitor individual Americans on a grand scale and use that information to punish or discredit people in furtherance of its policy agenda and of its hold on power.

In my view, no threat to our freedoms from abroad comes close to the magnitude of the threat from within posed by NSA’s burgeoning capabilities. We need to start a national conversation on what price we are willing to pay in the name of national security.

I finished listening to Christopher Hitchens’s Hitch-22 a few days ago, read by himself, and highly recommend it both for entertainment value and as a commentary on the political landscape of the last half-century. But the recording had special poignancy because by the time Hitchens did it he already knew he was unlikely to be long for this world, and yet he retained his sneering contempt—his voice drips with it—for the possibility of an afterlife.

Today, I am just back from an early morning walk at our eco-resort in far northwest Thailand which included a steep pitch that caused me considerable shortness of breath. That, along with my recent 69th birthday, got me to thinking about the afterlife. And that brings me back to Hitchens’s utterly confident nihilism.

What if survival after death is a choice? Suppose there is indeed a transcendent dimension to the universe (something I don’t find implausible) and that evolution gave humans the unique capacity, unshared even by dolphins and African Gray parrots, to tap into that transcendence, in the same way that it gave humans the unique capacity to solve quadratic equations. But neither happens automatically. You have to learn algebra to solve quadratic equations, and you have to nurture and exercise your potentially immortal soul to enable it to survive the death of your body. That nurturing and exercise both involve systematic, purposeful seeking after the nature of the transcendent. More colloquially, you have to work to understand God, in the same way that you have to work to understand math. And so Christopher Hitchens’s soul never became viable and is now extinct, whereas, say, Thomas Merton’s soul—or those of his Buddhist, Jewish, or Islamic counterparts—lives on.

It’s a scary thought, if you’re like me and haven’t worked at it. I have adopted the convenient belief, perhaps one that some of my secular readers will recognize, that (a) probably there isn’t a God, but (b) even if there is, I’m really a nice person and an all-knowing God will understand that, and give me a pass.

If it doesn’t work that way, I’m in trouble. I need to come to my deathbed able to survive it, just as I need to come to a marathon able to run 26 miles or to an algebra test able to solve quadratic equations. Being a nice person has nothing to do with it.

It puts a whole new spin on Pascal’s Wager. It’s not enough to bet that there’s a God and a heaven, because a formalistic faith doesn’t help. You can’t even have a deeply felt conversion at the last minute. If you haven’t done your homework, you’re dead.

That exhausts my thoughts on the subject. Back to my day job.

Charles Murray

Keep locking ’em up

By Charles Murray

December 29, 2011, 10:14 am

I got into a good-natured argument with my friend Pete Wehner of the Ethics and Public Policy Center over lunch last week about the importance of incarceration in explaining the gratifying drop in crime since the 1990s. Pete cited some credible technical analyses (summarized in John DiIulio’s fine overview on crime trends showing that increased incarceration accounts for only 10 to 35 percent of the reduction in crime), while I muttered that we would see how true that is if we freed a whole lot of violent criminals. Without pretending to refute the technical analyses, let me give a quick illustration why I think simple incapacitation—we’ve locked up a huge percentage of the really nasty guys—plus a substantial deterrent effect is a plausible explanation for why violent crime dropped at all.

I specify violent because I’m sure that much of the drop in property crime is explained by target hardening. It’s impossible to steal most new cars this day because there is no way to get the engine started without the key. Hot-wiring is futile. Try to burgle a home in a neighborhood where homes have much worth stealing, and you’d better be prepared to get in and out before the high-tech security system brings the cops. If you’re in a commercial area, you’ve got omnipresent surveillance cameras to worry about along with the security systems. The effect of these innovations on violent crime has been much spottier. Yes, it can be harder to rob a convenience store (robbery is classified as a violent crime), but for the most part, robbery, homicide, aggravated assault, and rape are not technically more difficult to commit than they used to be.

Here is a graph that shows the violent crime rate per 100,000 population and the number of prisoners per 1,000 violent offenses from 1960–2010:

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, FBI Uniform Crime Reports. “Prisoners” refers to inmates of state and federal prisons and does not include persons in jail.

The red line shows the shape of two trends: the risk of going to prison if you commit a violent crime and the proportion of all violent criminals who are behind bars at a given time (they are not the actual risks and proportions for various reasons, including the large number of persons in jail who are not included in the count of prisoners—748,728 in 2010). Here’s how I interpret those shapes:

When crime gets safer, crime goes up very quickly as a response. In the late 1950s, the “prison only makes people into smarter criminals”  school became dominant in criminal justice circles. By the early 1960s, imprisonment rates were plummeting. For that matter, even the raw number of prisoners fell. One consequence was that every cohort of young people saw acquaintances start to get probation for offenses that would have sent them to prison or reform school in the 1950s. I still remember my shock as a 17-year-old in that era when a friend of mine who shoplifted several thousand dollars of clothes from the store where he worked got probation. Once he had been arrested, it had not occurred to me that he wouldn’t go to reform school.

Pushing that toothpaste back into the tube takes a lot longer. Kids who are amazed when a friend gets away with a serious crime aren’t amazed when, say, 19 percent of their friends arrested for a serious crime are incarcerated instead of 15 percent. Understandably, crime continued to rise after imprisonment rates started to rise after 1974. Even in 1990, after 15 years of rising imprisonment rates, the risk of going to prison if you committed a violent crime was still far lower than it had been in 1960.

Cumulatively, however, two things happen. First, more and more of the “dirty 7 percent” of offenders who commit about 50 percent of all crime end up in prison. They cannot commit crimes, except against other criminals. Second, the cumulative impact of much higher imprisonment rates does make an impression—the idea that crime doesn’t pay is no longer completely a joke. For violent crime, the tipping point occurred in 1992, when imprisonment rates were heading straight up. By the time that the imprisonment rate for violent crime reached its 1960 level in 1998, the downward trendline was well established.

So how much of the reduction in violent crime was produced by increased incarceration? This kind of analysis doesn’t tell us. But neither am I sure that the armory of social science quantitative techniques adequately models what has gone on. Here is my simple-minded thought: Suppose we had maintained imprisonment for violent crime at the rate that applied in 1974. In that case, we would have had 276,769 state and federal prisoners in 2010 instead of the 1,518,104 we actually had. Suppose tomorrow we freed 1.2 million inmates from state and federal prisons. Do we really think violent crime would continue to drop at a somewhat slower pace?

In one sense, it is a silly question, as all counter-factuals must be. And I’m not saying that our current incarceration rates are appropriate. We may very well have been in a state of diminishing returns to incarceration for the last decade, as the experts DiIulio cites have argued. But I continue to harbor the belief that without the massive increases in incarceration after the mid 1970s, crime rates wouldn’t have turned around at all. Higher imprisonment was the necessary condition for 100 percent of the reduction in violent crime.

For a long time, psychometricians have known that males have larger brain volume than females, on average, even after adjusting for body size, and that brain volume correlates with IQ (Sorry, Steve Gould fans. A lot of the things he told you about IQ just aren’t true).* So what are men doing with that extra brain volume? Are they smarter than women?

One theory has been that men use that extra brain volume to process three-dimensional spatial data. Out on the prehistoric savanna, being able to throw a spear accurately and find one’s way home after a long hunt had clear survival value, and the demand on men to do these things was a lot higher than the demand on women. Hence, a sex difference in spatial abilities evolved, but one that would not necessarily translate into a sex difference in the overall general mental ability g.

An article on sex differences in cognitive ability has just appeared that is based on state-of-the-art science and provides strong evidence that this conjecture is correct. Using precise measurements of gray matter and white matter plus a complete battery of mental tests, the researchers found that sex differences in brain volume were not related to g, but were related to sex differences in spatial skills.

How can this be? As a rough analogy, consider how much computing power you need. If you are a photographer and manipulate large images on Photoshop, you need a lot faster chip and more memory than if you are a writer and using only Microsoft Word. But that doesn’t have anything to do with the cognitive complexity of the different tasks. Again very roughly: Men tend to be better at certain spatial tasks, which require a lot of neurons; women tend to be better at verbal tasks, which require fewer neurons.

This article is not dispositive—there’s a lot left to be learned about all of these issues. But it is a big step forward, has the advantage of making sense, and is another vindication for those of us who think there are lots of important sex differences—and vive le différence.

*Gould didn’t just misrepresent the literature. He sometimes made things up.

Charles Murray

The Big C as cultural artifact

By Charles Murray

December 2, 2011, 12:06 pm

For those of you who haven’t watched it, The Big C is a television series starring Laura Linney as Cathy Jamison, a Minneapolis high school teacher and housewife who is diagnosed with terminal melanoma. I’m a big fan of the show. Linney is flat-out brilliant. Black comedy is hard to pull off, and the writers mostly succeed. The plots seldom take easy outs.

The Big C’s role as cultural artifact arises from this: Throughout the first two seasons, 26 episodes in all, neither Cathy nor anyone in her family considers the possibility of a spiritual dimension to life that might be relevant in confronting the prospect of death. One character in the entire series, who is also in treatment for cancer, is a professed Buddhist. But his religious practice, whatever it might be, is conducted offstage, doesn’t seem to offer him a lot of consolation, and anyway Buddhism is a safe religion for Hollywood—exotic, not of the West, and one that doesn’t involve an actual, you know, God. Of spirituality drawing from Christian tradition, nothing.

It is that complete void which is so striking. There is no mention of a religious upbringing that Cathy has rejected. No role for a clergyman who tries to bring the consolation of Christianity to Cathy but fails. For practical purposes, the Minneapolis of The Big C is a world in which the religion on which Western civilization is founded is not just wrong, but does not exist.

Maybe the producers are running through Kübler-Ross’s five stages of dying and will get to the spiritual dimension in the next season or two, and maybe Christianity will be referenced. But the thought runs through my mind nonetheless: What if the producers and writers of The Big C live in a world where Christianity really doesn’t exist in any practical way and they think that’s the world in which all smart people live?

Hollywood in the last few decades has been weird when it comes to religion. There’s no shortage of plots with an afterlife, ghosts coming back to guide the living, and supernatural events. But there’s a big shortage of plots that incorporate adult, thoughtful, and nuanced spiritual considerations—the kinds in which Christianity abounds, whether or not you are a believer—into the way that characters live their lives. Of all the gulfs that separate Hollywood from the rest of America, that one may be the widest. The Big C, produced and written by people who are not only smart but adult, thoughtful, and nuanced in everything aside from spirituality, is an exemplar of that gulf.

Charles Murray

Even the good news has a downside

By Charles Murray

November 28, 2011, 11:38 am

The preliminary birth data for 2010 just released by the National Center for Health Statistics reveal that, for the first time since 1995 and only the second time since 1950, the American illegitimacy ratio (the percentage of live births that occurred to unmarried women) decreased in 2010. That’s nice, but don’t pop the champagne. We’re talking about a drop of two-tenths of 1 percentage point, from 41.0 percent to 40.8 percent. (Linger over either number for a second. More than two out of five American children are now born to unmarried mothers.)

The more interesting aspect of the data is shown in table 7: Even though the overall ratio dropped, the ratio for every age group increased. How could this be? Because the group with the highest proportion of nonmarital births, teenagers, accounted for a smaller proportion of all births in 2010—9.3 percent of all births, compared to 10.0 percent in 2009—while women with the lowest ratio, those 30 and older, increased their share of all births from 37.4 to 38.6 percent.

It is unequivocally good news that teenage births are falling. Other things equal, mothers in their 20s and 30s are more mature than mothers in their teens, and consequently likely to be better mothers. But that the illegitimacy ratio is continuing to rise in every age group is ominous. As the years go on, nonmarital births decreasingly reflect adolescent thoughtlessness. They increasingly reflect the opinion of adult women that it is okay to bring a baby into the world without a male committed to its protection and care, and the opinion of adult men that it is okay to create a child without fathering it. That’s depressing.

A few days ago, the Washington Post ran an article on the “gifted gap” whereby white students in gifted programs around Washington are highly overrepresented. It was an unremarkable article—gifted programs throughout the country are overrepresented with whites, East Asians, Southeast Asians, and South Asians. But toward the end of the article came this remarkable sentence:

In nearly every local system, white students are disproportionately represented, even though most gifted programs explicitly target students with natural talents and aptitude, which are spread evenly across racial groups and social classes.

Ignore the assertion about racial groups. I am told that disputing that assertion can get one into trouble. Just think about the assertion that natural talents and aptitudes are evenly spread across social classes.

In what kind of society is it possible that natural talents and aptitudes are evenly spread across social classes? One option is a society inhabited by humans who do not pass their talents and aptitudes along to their children. But there is no such thing. Children’s abilities are correlated with their parents’ abilities throughout the world and have been known to be correlated for as long as humans have been observing and writing about other humans. A large part of that transmission of abilities is genetic. Regarding IQ, geneticists have now established beyond serious dispute that fluid intelligence—similar to the famous g, general mental ability—is at least 51 percent heritable.

Given that parent-child relationship, the only society in which talent in children would be evenly spread across social classes is a totalitarian state in which ability has no relationship to success in life. It is a logical necessity that in a society in which ability has any relationship to success, children of the most successful people will be overrepresented among the gifted. In a society that is pretty good at rewarding ability with success, that overrepresentation will be large. In a highly meritocratic society, it will be huge. This is not a political statement nor one that relies on a particular definition of ability. It’s just the way things inevitably work out in a world where parent-child correlations on ability are as large as the world we live in. To think that children’s natural talents and aptitude will be spread evenly across social classes in a country like the United States is breathtakingly silly.

Do women temporarily get stupider when they have a baby? My wife thought so about her two births; so did my two daughters who have had children, and they tell me that all the other mothers they know think so, too. Now, as science marches on, it appears that it really is true. Jessica Henry and Barbara Sherwin have an article in the forthcoming issue of Behavioral Neuroscience reporting that women in late pregnancy and soon after birth had significantly lower scores than a control group on a variety of cognitive tasks, and conclude that changes in the levels of cortisol and estradiol may be involved.

“It’s nature’s way of hosing down the mind,” a family friend explained it to my wife when she was caring for her three-week-old and complaining that she had lost her brains. And when you think about it, what better way to help a new mother cope with the infinite demands of an infant on her life?

(Yes, I know what a sexist sentence I just wrote. But on a level far beyond the power of socialization to change, mothers are left holding the baby.)

Charles Murray

The Headline That Never Was

By Charles Murray

September 14, 2011, 1:50 pm

Yesterday, the revelation that poverty had reached 15.1 percent in 2010 (poverty figures refer to the year prior to their release) got a lot of attention, but, seen in context, it wasn’t really a big deal. The official poverty percentage hit its low in 1972 at 11.1 percent and since then has moved within a narrow range, hitting a high of 15.2 percent in 1982.

Compared those wiggles in the graph of poverty with this headline: “POVERTY HALVED. Drops 20 Percentage Points in Just Twelve Years.” That’s what happened from 1949 to 1961. We didn’t know it at the time, but the numbers have been calculated retrospectively, using the 1950 census to determine the poverty rate in 1949—it was 41 percent. In President Kennedy’s first year in office, 1961, it was 21 percent. And what was going on in between? Oh, yes. Those boring, complacent Eisenhower years, when the government didn’t try to help the poor. Unlike now.

Charles Murray

On Raising Taxes Philosophically

By Charles Murray

August 16, 2011, 10:32 am

Pete Wehner, upon reading my defense of the Republican candidates who refused to agree even to a 10:1 spending cuts: tax increases deal, has held my feet to the fire.

It’s a thought experiment, Pete points out, and I’ve been using thought experiments for the last quarter century, so respond to it: Assuming that a genuine 10:1 spending cuts deal could be struck, should Republican presidential candidates automatically oppose it? He cites the telling example of Mitch Daniels, who was demonized by some Republicans because he raised some taxes as governor of Indiana while lowering others and reaching a balanced budget—especially telling, since Daniels is a man who, in my opinion, would make a truly great president.

Pete writes that “if we have reached a point where Republicans running for president cannot envision (or at least admit to) any scenario in which they would raise taxes, even if as a result they could roll back the modern welfare state, then it’s time to consider loosening the philosophical straightjacket they are in.”

If Pete had altered that parenthetical phrase “or at least admit to” and made one other emendation, I would have no argument. Here’s the statement I could agree with: “If we have reached a point where Republicans running for president cannot envision (though they must never admit to envisioning) any scenario in which they would raise taxes, even if as a result they could roll back the modern welfare state, then it’s time to consider finding candidates who are more adept politicians.”

Mitch Daniels, who is philosophically closer to a libertarian than any of the remaining Republican candidates, could, as a sitting governor, accept a tax increase pragmatically. I am sure he saw ways to reach a balanced budget for Indiana that wouldn’t have required a tax increase, but knew he couldn’t get them through the legislature. He practiced politics, the art of the possible. Presidents should do the same.

But philosophy has nothing to do with it. Smart revolutionaries in power (Lenin, along with Reagan, comes to mind) routinely take one step back so they can take two forward. But we live with a federal government that could have vast chunks of its bureaucracy lopped off with no detriment to the lives of Americans (and in most cases with benefits instead). We have a tax code that takes up thousands of pages to spell out the tax goodies that have been carved out for special interests with effective lobbies, and a dozen ways to reform that tax code that would raise more revenue with lower, fairer rates. Under these conditions, tax increases are something that a Republican president should accept as a last resort, holding his or her nose, and the campaign is not a time to ruminate about last-ditch options. Let’s face it; some thought experiments can be so out of touch with reality that they are pointless. Postulating an American presidential campaign that consists of grown-up conversations is one of them.

My friend Pete Wehner sees a problem if the eight candidates in last week’s Republican debate were serious when they all said they would refuse to accept a “real spending cuts deal” that offered $10 in cuts for every $1 in increased taxes. “If taxes cannot be raised under any circumstances,” Pete writes, “then we have veered from economic policy to religious catechism.”

I, on the other hand, was annoyed that none of the eight challenged the false premise of the question. There is no such thing as a real spending cuts deal (TINSTAARSCD, a companion to TINSTAAFL). Congress doesn’t keep its spending cuts promises. Didn’t keep its promises in the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982. Didn’t keep them in the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Balanced Budget Act of 1985 (or, more precisely, in its reworked version passed in 1987). Can anyone doubt that the promises of spending cuts made in the recent legislation raising the debt limit will also be hedged and finagled? Experience indicates that lawmakers do not yet know how to craft legislative language that irrevocably binds Congress to its fiscal promises. That’s why all eight candidates could properly refuse to support a 10:1 spending cuts deal, or even a 100:1 spending cuts deal. They are not deals that would be honored.

A landmark article went online a few days ago in the journal Molecular Psychiatry. The study was prepared by a team of 32 researchers headed by the University of Edinburgh’s Gail Davies and entitled “Genome-wide association studies establish that human intelligence is highly heritable and polygenic.” The study’s methods do not lend themselves to easy explanation unless you’re at home with SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) and inverse variance weighted models used to capture “the variance in the trait that is due to linkage disequilibrium between genotyped SNPs and unknown causal variants.” But the bottom line of the article is reasonably simple. Using nothing but genetic information, the team of researchers was able to establish that the narrow heritability of crystallized intelligence (the kind that can be more easily affected by education) is at least 40 percent. The narrow heritability of fluid intelligence (the kind that involves pure problem-solving ability, independently of acquired knowledge) is at least 51 percent. Note the at least. The study’s authors explicitly state that these estimates are lower bounds.

Shelves of books and articles denying or minimizing the heritability of IQ have suddenly become obsolete. Those who continue to claim that IQ tests don’t measure anything real inside the brain also have their work cut out for them.

Charles Murray

It’s the BA, Stupid

By Charles Murray

June 27, 2011, 9:35 am

The New York Times’s David Leonhardt has weighed in with a defense of college-for-all. Arnold Kling dissects some of its obvious flaws on econlog. But the larger problem is that Leonhardt misses the point. The choice should not be framed in terms of college or no college. Almost everyone needs more education after high school. The problem is a piece of paper called the bachelor’s degree that has become both the requirement for first class citizenship in this country (being “just a high school graduate” makes you distinctly second class) and at the same time has become meaningless as an indication of what you have learned. End the BA, stop requiring four years worth of courses, stop glorifying the residential campus, and create a post-high-school educational system that takes advantage of all the ways that technology offers to let high school graduates tailor their post-secondary education to what they need to realize their abilities. Forget about the percentage of people going to college and focus instead on how antiquated, inefficient, and punitive the BA system is.  

I’ve always been in favor of school vouchers, despite worries about how much regulation of private schools vouchers would bring with them. But then comes this email from Ken Milano, a working-class guy from Philadelphia (he would insist that I describe him that way) who has helped me with some field work on my current book. Ken wrote:

What are your thoughts about the school choice vouchers? In particular, the bill that is making its way through the Pennsylvania Legislature?

On paper it all sounds just grand. You take the 120 or so worst-performing schools in the state and give those families a voucher to go to parochial schools or private school (up to the amount of what it costs the State to educate a child, something like $7000 to $9000). The children will now have a fighting chance for an education.

So if you are only thinking of the kids in these worst-performing schools, the law sounds like a winner. However, the folks I talk to (and I would count myself in their camp as well) think it’s a rotten idea, not because we don’t care about the future of these children stuck in horrible schools, nor because we give a hoot about the public school system or the teachers union. We are Catholics and would be sending our children to parochial schools regardless, even if local schools were good.

The way we see movement for school choice vouchers is this way. Classes at the Catholic school where my sons go now have about 25 to 28 students per class and we pay about $3500 a year for tuition. If this school voucher bill becomes law, only those families whose kids are in those 120 or so worst schools get the vouchers. Thus the white working class gets the short end of the stick yet again. The working stiffs who work several jobs to pay for the parochial school tuition doesn’t get a voucher because his kid isn’t in the horrible schools, but now the kid sitting next to his kid gets a free ride, plus on top of this the potential for the classes to be maxed out, even overcrowded, arise as the Church will gladly fill up their classrooms to whatever they can get away with. So instead of 25 to 28 we might be looking at another 8 kids or more in the classroom.

Plus these new students will be from schools that were the worst in Philadelphia, which might not guarantee they are with the program when it comes to discipline. Of course the law says that private and parochial schools do not have to accept anybody if they do not want to and at least the Catholic schools give priority to Catholics, so it might not be too bad, but I can’t help thinking that yet again the social engineers are coming up with laws that they will never have to live under. They say that this will be the “first phase,” and only include the worst 120 or so schools, but I can’t see how they will ever phase in other levels. It seems to me and some who I have talked with that this is just another giveaway program that the white working class will not be eligible for.

Also, the Catholic Church likes to state how they keep the tuition low because working class families would not be able to afford it otherwise. If the State is going to give vouchers up to $7000 to $9000, then what reason would the church have to keep the tuition costs down? I think if this becomes law you could see the price of Catholic school tuition go up as the church can get even more of the taxpayers’ dollar, which would then squeeze out the white working class from even a parochial school education!

What do you think? Am I off the mark here?

No, I don’t think Mr. Milano is off the mark. In fact, if I were in his shoes, I would be against the bill for exactly the same reasons.

On a hundred-point scale of distrust of government social programs, I consider myself to be at least a 99. But if I’d been asked about the Pennsylvania voucher bill a few days ago, I probably would have said it sounded like a great idea. Perhaps the bill could be tweaked to respond to the issues that Mr. Milano raises. But maybe not. The words will come back to me whenever I’m about to say nice things about vouchers in the future: “I can’t help thinking that yet again the social engineers are coming up with laws that they will never have to live under.”

Paul Krugman, the Jekyll and Hyde of public intellectuals (breathtakingly bad though he is as a columnist, I’m told he’s actually competent when he’s alone in a room with other economists), had a piece a few weeks ago in which he linked a state’s policy toward collective bargaining for teachers with its national ranking on SAT/ACT scores. He then proceeded to extol Wisconsin and excoriate Texas.

Out of nowhere—at least I’d never heard of him—comes a posting by one David Burge on his blog, Iowahawk, in which he tore Krugman’s numbers apart. I don’t mean he found some soft spots. I’m talking evisceration. The post has been flying around cyberspace and has a attracted a lot of flak to which Burge has now responded.

I recommend both posts as tours de force on two levels. First, they are saturated with the best kind of Internet irreverence and humor—sophomoric occasionally, lmao funny more often. Second, the guy is a hell of an applied statistician.

It’s wonderful: Paul Krugman’s got his mile-high New York Times platform, Burge has an obscure blog. And yet, in the world of the Internet, he can take Krugman down and end up letting a whole lot of people know he’s done it.

The text of the SOTU as delivered can be read in a few minutes, and be understood much more straightforwardly than by watching. Why watch?

I am a big fan of civic rites (I would never vote by mail if I could get to a polling place), and the SOTU was once such a ceremony that I felt duty-bound to watch. But those were the days when the president soberly gave a speech and our elected representatives listened quietly, with occasional applause. The president got a standing ovation when he entered the House chamber and when he completed the speech, as is appropriate. But for many years the SOTU has become a political circus. Yesterday’s speech was interrupted more than 75 times by applause, the Washington Post tells me. Since I didn’t watch, I can only guess how many of them involved some members leaping to their feet. A lot, I bet. It’s a bipartisan degradation of a fine old tradition. I wish the television ratings would plummet, and that the pollsters would discover that people no longer watched because they are disgusted. Who knows? A president sometime in the distant future might quietly send word to the senators and representatives that he doesn’t want them to interrupt him while he tries his best to describe the state of the union.

Nick, regarding that list, all I can say is, thank God for legal immigration.

The Amy Chua furor over parenting has led me to reflect on the concept of a happy, well-adjusted childhood. Okay, so we don’t want our children to be miserable. I’ll grant that much. But think back on the formative experiences of your own childhood—the things that taught you lessons that have been most valuable to you as an adult. Some of them may be examples set by your parents that you have tried to live up to, which is great. But even in those cases, I doubt that the lesson you learned was that “I vow to be as undemanding of my children as my parents were of me.” Aside from deciding to emulate good examples, I submit that most of the learning experiences of childhood involve difficulties, unhappinesses, and struggles, and most of the moments that stand out as gratifying are ones in which someone you respected recognized that you had accomplished something in the face of difficulties.

I’m also trying to think of anyone who has accomplished anything great in life who had a happy childhood. Can’t.

preschoolA new article has been published with more evidence that there is an interaction effect between genes and socioeconomic status (SES) on IQ, but only for children from low-SES homes (one of the coauthors, Eric Turkheimer, has been making this case since about 2003). From the abstract: “At age 2 years, genes accounted for nearly 50% of the variation in mental ability of children raised in high-SES homes, but genes continued to account for negligible variation in mental ability of children raised in low-SES homes.”

What can that mean? That somehow IQ is not heritable for poor children but is heritable for rich children? That’s impossible, surely. Kids are kids; if IQ is (let’s say) 50 percent heritable for human beings, doesn’t that have to mean that it is 50 percent heritable for rich and poor alike?

The confusion arises partly from the difference between the underlying heritability of IQ and its measurement over the life span. The correlation between the midpoint of parental IQ and the child’s IQ starts fairly small in early childhood and continues to increase. In the best review of twin studies, genes accounted for only about 22 percent of the variance at age 5, 40 percent at age 7, and a whopping 82 percent at age 18. So there’s lots of room to push and pull mental ability in infants and toddlers. It doesn’t mean that the reshaped mental ability will stay that way, but it will certainly produce changes in the measurement of it while the children are young.

The confusion also arises partly from the asymmetrical way in which good and bad environments affect IQ. Super-enriched environments don’t have much effect. That wonderful mobile you bought to put over your baby’s crib won’t make much difference, nor will playing Mozart while the child is in the womb, nor will any of the other ingenious ways in which ambitious upper-middle-class parents try to whip every neuron in their child’s cerebral cortex into tip-top shape. The things that such parents normally do will provide a “good enough” environment.

But never talking to an infant at all, except to scold it? Leaving an infant in an environment that is devoid of stimulation? Or in cases of blatant abuse, locking a toddler in a closet for long periods of time? You certainly can have a major negative effect on mental ability if you do those kinds of things. That’s the parsimonious explanation for Turkheimer’s findings. We know from other studies that low-SES mothers (in low-SES circles, fewer and fewer fathers are part of the picture these days) often don’t talk much to their children, often leave them in low-stimulation environments—often, not to mince words, have terrible parenting practices. That indeed will produce a big environmental effect on low-SES infants that has no counterpart among high-SES children.

The obvious next question: Can outside interventions do much to help children facing that kind of incompetent parenting? But that’s a big topic, completely separate, that I’ll leave for another time.

Image by Nicki Dugan.

Steve Hayward’s post about the invective used against Ronald Reagan reminds me of a PhD dissertation topic I’ve long wanted to induce some energetic graduate student to take up: A quantitative study of political invective. The research design should be fairly easy to set up. One category could be political office-holders, including, from both parties, all U.S. representatives and senators. Another category could be all political columnists on a defined set of major newspapers. A third could be talk show hosts and commentators from both radio and television. A fourth could be contributors to a set of major online magazines and blogs that have high political content—Slate, Salon, the Huffington Post, National Review’s Corner, and the like. The invective could be categorized. Comparisons with hateful people from the past (Hitler, McCarthy, Stalin, etc.). Accusations of lying. Accusations of stupidity. Accusations of treachery. Accusations of cruelty. Accusations of conspiracy. Ethnic slurs. Sexual slurs. Use of obscenities. There could also be a category for witty invective, but P.J. O’Rourke has the monopoly on that.

And then add them all up. What part of the political spectrum will be most responsible for the loss of civility that everyone so piously deplores?

I have a few predictions. On minor market radio shows, the loony Right probably piles up the most invective points, partly because there are so many more right-wing radio hosts than left-wing ones, and partly because there are some truly nasty people out there. But once you move into the major talk show and television commentators, I think the Left will take the lead. My impression is that Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, and Sean Hannity seldom use the kind of language that Keith Olbermann uses routinely. When it comes to columnists in major newspapers, just think of the pairings—George Will and Charles Krauthammer compared to Frank Rich and Paul Krugman, for example. Michael Barone and E.J. Dionne. Jonah Goldberg and Maureen Dowd. For that matter, have you kept track of the language that academicians of the Left like Alan Wolfe use about the Right? Try to find anything remotely like it from Harvey Mansfield or James Q. Wilson. When it comes to the actual politicians, I’d be guessing. But wouldn’t it be fun to have the evidence laid out for everyone to see?

Amy Chua is a hoot. Her WSJ op ed about the superiority of Chinese parenting, a take from her book Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother, has blogs around the world roaring at a woman who could be so cruel to her children. I was laughing out loud throughout, partly because she clearly was having the time of her life twitting the sensitive helicopter parents who can’t bear the idea that their wonderful child is stressed or criticized in any way whatsoever. I was also laughing because the mother of my first two children was half Thai and all Chinese, and it was all so familiar. The subject heading of the email attaching the Chua article to my elder two daughters was “Bring back memories?” My own archetypal memory is when my eldest daughter, then perhaps eight years old, came home with her first Maryland standardized test scores, showing that she was at the 99th percentile in reading and the 93rd percentile in math. Her mother’s first words—the very first—were “What’s wrong with the math?”

Both children turned out great and love their mother dearly.

To get a little bit serious: large numbers of talented children everywhere would profit from Chua’s approach, and instead are frittering away their gifts—they’re nice kids, not brats, but they are also self-indulgent and inclined to make excuses for themselves. There are also large numbers of children who are not especially talented, but would do a lot better in school if their parents applied the same intense home supplements to their classroom work.

But genes play a big role in whether you can demand that your child get an A in advanced calculus or make first seat in the violin section of the orchestra. With that in mind, let’s contemplate the genes being fed into those Chua children who are doing so well.

Maternal grandfather: EE and computer sciences professor at Berkeley, known as the father of nonlinear circuit theory and cellular neural networks.

Mother: able to get into Harvard (a much better indicator of her IQ than the magna cum laude in economics that she got there); Executive Editor of the Law Review at Harvard Law School.

Father: Summa cum laude from Princeton and magna cum laude from Harvard Law School, now a chaired professor at Yale Law School.

Guess what. Amy Chua has really smart kids. They would be really smart if she had put them up for adoption at birth with the squishiest postmodern parents. They would not have turned out exactly the same under their softer tutelage, but they would probably be getting into Harvard and Princeton as well. Similarly, if Amy Chua had adopted two children at birth who turned out to have measured childhood IQs at the 20th percentile, she would have struggled to get them through high school, no matter how fiercely she battled for them.

Accepting both truths—parenting does matter, but genes constrain possibilities—seems peculiarly hard for some parents and almost every policy maker to accept.

Charles Murray

Six Modest Proposals

By Charles Murray

December 30, 2010, 9:35 pm

constitutionYesterday, my wife forwarded a chain email to me that made a lot of sense. It proposed an amendment to the Constitution that would read as follows:

Congress shall make no law that applies to the citizens of the United States that does not apply equally to the Senators and/or Representatives; and, Congress shall make no law that applies to the Senators and/or Representatives that does not apply equally to the citizens of the United States.

There are some problems with wording that would have to be hammered out, but the sense of it is clear enough. My reaction is, damn right. I would vote for it in a heartbeat. And now that the subject has been raised, I have five additional constitutional amendments that I’d like to see enacted. There are some wording problems with these, too, but you’ll see what I’m getting at, and each addresses an annoying defect in our constitutional democracy:

1. No one holding a civilian post in the federal government shall be addressed by the title associated with that post after leaving office, and that includes the president.

2. Secret Service protection shall not be provided for anybody whose death or kidnapping wouldn’t really make much difference anyway. This means everybody but the president, at least.

3. No person shall be elected to the House, Senate, presidency, or vice-presidency who has not successfully held a job for at least one year with a for-profit employer.

4. If the president of the United States chooses to hold a press conference, he or she shall make a good-faith effort to answer the questions.

5. A piece of legislation may be about only one thing.

As we embark on a new year, these six modest changes seem little enough to ask of our elected public servants who, we are told, are looking for ways to make things better without spending any money.

Image by Jonathan Thome.

janet-napolitannoOne of the best things about AEI is that there’s no institutional position on anything. And so it is in this fine tradition of the organization that I say to my colleagues Marc Theissen and Danielle Pletka, I beg to differ. About the TSA, I mean. On this one, I’m foursquare with another AEI colleague, Alex Pollock.

Long before the new TSA policies were announced, it has been evident that Americans who fly are required to endure harassment because the U.S. government hasn’t the honesty to deal with threats to airplane terrorism sensibly. In conversations, I’ve suggested a thought experiment: Give people a choice between two airlines. One airline is secured by the current system. The other airline has its passengers walk down a corridor, at the end of which sit a couple of retired New York homicide dicks who occasionally point to someone and say, “You—I want to talk to you,” and pull him out of the line. Everyone else walks onto the plane. Which airline would you choose?

Now make it a little more realistic. It’s not a couple of retired homicide dicks eyeing the people walking down the corridor, but many experienced law enforcement agents with special training on terrorist profiling, backed up by the unimaginably extensive real-time, anti-terrorism databases that U.S. intelligence maintains, linked with passenger lists and the same requirements for passenger identification that exist now. That’s good enough for me. I bet a large majority of passengers would agree with me, especially if the extent of the intelligence available to screeners were known.

To take the current system, which is already awful, and add additional humiliations to Americans whose probability of being terrorists is precisely zero, is outrageous. As usual, Peggy Noonan, George Will, and Charles Krauthammer have said it better than I can.

When the Department of Homeland Security was created, the very name was unsettling. “Homeland” sounded vaguely totalitarian, a word that the Third Reich or USSR propagandists might use, not a word in the American lexicon. In the wake of 9/11, a lot of us swallowed our objections and muttered, “Well, okay, but be careful how far you take this stuff.” What’s happening at the TSA is why we were apprehensive.

Image by the Center for American Progress.

Karlyn, I’ve been thinking for the last several months that the Republicans were setting themselves up for a fall by counting their gains so confidently and gleefully. You’re the polling expert. Based on past history, is there any reason to think that Republican gains will be considerably less than projected (because of overconfidence and lower-than-expected-turnout, energizing a reaction among the Democratic base, etc.)? Or have poll designers and analysts become so sophisticated that they can factor those possibilities into their estimates?

obama-enemiesPresident Obama’s jarring use of the word “enemies” to describe political opponents came a few days before I took some friends on a tour of Antietam, which is only a few miles from our home. During the tour, I told them one of my favorite Antietam stories. After hours of savage fighting—it was the bloodiest day in American history—Robert E. Lee encountered his son, a 20-year-old artillery officer. His son’s face was blackened with powder and battle smoke, and Lee didn’t recognize him until the boy approached and asked, “General, are you going to send us in again?” Lee was heard to reply quietly, “Yes, my son. You all must do what you can to help drive those people back.”

I tell the story (when I can get through it without breaking up) because of its poignancy—the commanding general finds his son alive when he must have feared he was dead, and then has to tell him he must go back into the cauldron—but when I told it on Tuesday I was struck by the words “those people.” It is said that Lee always referred to the Union troops as “those people,” unwilling to call them “the enemy.”

I grant that too much shouldn’t be made of a single use of the word “enemies.” Politicians say lots of words in the heat of a campaign, and some of them come out by accident. But it is all right to make much of Lee’s unwillingness to use the word “enemy.” And, fair or not, the comparison is unavoidable.

Image by Wikimedia Commons user calebrw.


The American Enterprise Institute takes no institutional positions on policy advocacy or political campaigns. The views expressed on The Enterprise Blog represent those of the individual writers.

AEI