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Polling Problems: The Pew Research Center released the results of an exhaustive study of response rates, and the news is grim. The response rate (the percentage of people who are successfully interviewed) has dropped from 36 percent in 1997 to 9 percent today. The decline is evident across all kinds of surveys. One area where there were differences from large government surveys with much higher response rates was in the area of civic participation. Pew is still optimistic about the polls: “[D]espite declining response rates, telephone surveys that include landlines and cell phones and are weighted to match the demographic composition of the population continue to provide accurate data on most political, social, and economic measures.”

Who’s Rich?: In a new poll, 68 percent told Gallup that Barack Obama was rich; 82 percent felt that way about Mitt Romney.

Debt Ceiling Fight Replay?: This week, House Speaker John Boehner vowed to hold up another increase in the debt ceiling unless it is offset by larger spending cuts. Are we in for a replay of the showdown last summer? Who was hurt most by it?

It is hard to isolate what moves poll numbers, but the Republicans in Congress have lost more ground than the Democrats since spring 2011. Neither party is especially popular. In the ABC/Washington Post poll of adults, Republicans lost 11 points since April 2011, while Democrats lost 2 points. Thirty-four percent in their March 2012 poll approve of the Democrats in Congress and 23 percent the Republicans. In Quinnipiac surveys of registered voters, Republicans lost 12 points since March 2011 and Democrats 5 points. Republicans have a 22 percent approval rating and Democrats a 26 percent rating in their February 2012 poll. The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation shows a bigger drop since last March for Republicans than Democrats (12 and 4 points). In February, 22 percent approved of the job the Republicans in Congress were doing compared to 31 percent for the Democrats.

On Wisconsin: With three weeks to go in the recall fight, two new Wisconsin polls give Governor Scott Walker a modest lead. In the May 9-12 Marquette Law School poll of likely voters, Walker led Tom Barrett by 50 to 44 percent, up from 48 to 47 percent in April. Republicans appear to be more enthusiastic about the contest. Ninety-one percent of them said they are absolutely certain they will vote compared to 83 percent of Democrats. Walker had a 50 to 45 percent lead over Barrett in the new PPP poll taken May 11-13. In the poll, 39 percent of union households supported Walker.

Christie’s Chances: Last week we wrote about an Ohio poll showing that adding Senator Rob Portman to the ticket did little to improve Romney’s position in the key state. Now comes a Quinnipiac poll showing that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie doesn’t add much either in a state that is expected to go Democratic. In the presidential matchup in New Jersey, Obama led Romney by 49 to 39 percent. With Chris Christie on the ticket, the Obama/Biden ticket polled at 50 percent, Romney/Christie at 42 percent.

Jobs Report: Sixty-eight percent in a recent Gallup poll know someone who has lost a job in the past six months. This morning’s disappointing jobs report reflects the pessimism the public feels on the job front.

Swing States Update: In a new Quinnipiac poll of three key swing states, Obama is up 8 points in Pennsylvania (47 percent Obama – 39 percent Romney), up 1 point in Florida (44O – 43R), and up 2 in Ohio (44O – 42R). In Pennsylvania and Ohio, there is a sizable gender gap. Women back Obama by a 17-point margin in Pennsylvania and a 13-point margin in Ohio. In Florida, women back Obama by a narrow 2-point margin. Men back Romney in all three states.

The War Against Women?: Responses to poll questions about the administration’s mandate on contraception coverage varied, pulling people in one direction or the other depending on how questions were worded. CBS and the New York Times recently asked a broader question about “women’s health issues” and 4 percent of men and 6 percent of women said these issues would be the single most important factor in determining their vote. Sixty-four percent of men and 73 percent of women said they would be one of several important factors, and 29 percent of men and 21 percent of women said they would not be an important factor.

The Catholic Vote: Based on aggregated data from Gallup’s daily polling, Hispanic Catholics back Obama by a significant margin, 70 percent to 20 percent for Romney. Non-Hispanic white Catholics, a much larger group, back Romney 55 percent to 38 percent for Obama.

Non-Hispanic white Catholics who self-identify as “very religious” back Romney 62 percent to 32 percent for Obama. “Moderately religious” Catholics back Romney 56 percent to 34 percent for Obama and “nonreligious” back Obama 54 percent to 40 percent for Obama.

Supreme Court: Fifty-two percent told Pew that they have a favorable opinion of the Supreme Court, which is the Court’s lowest rating since the trend began in 1985. Much of the recent decline has been driven by the views of self-identified Republicans, whose favorability rating of the Court dropped 14 points since April 2009. Even still, the Supreme Court remains more popular than either the executive branch or Congress.

The End is Nigh?: An Ipsos poll of residents in 21 countries found that 14 percent believe the world will come to an end in their lifetime. Countries with particularly high responses were Turkey (22 percent), the United States (22 percent), South Africa (21 percent), Argentina (19 percent), Mexico (19 percent), and Indonesia (19 percent). The poll also fount that one in ten agreed that the end of the Mayan calendar in 2012 marks the end of the world.

Jewish Voters: A new survey conducted by Knowledge Networks for the Public Religion Research Institute looks at the political opinions and social and cultural values of Jews in America. Sixty-two percent of self-identified Jewish voters in the panel survey said they would like to see President Obama re-elected, twice as many as say they would prefer the GOP candidate (30 percent).  Jews were about 2 percent of all voters in 2004 and 2008.  They gave 25 of their votes to the GOP candidate in 2004 and 21 percent in 2008.

When asked about the congressional elections, 65 percent of Jewish voters said they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district and 27 percent the Republican.

In the survey, seven in ten Jewish voters identified with (50 percent) or leaned to (20 percent) the Democratic Party compared to three in ten who identify (13 percent) or leaned to (16 percent) the GOP.  The top issue for Jewish voters was the economy (51 percent), followed by national security (29 percent).  Israel and Iran were selected by 6 percent each.

In the News:  The table below shows the results from a question in Pew’s most recent News Interest Index that asked people whether news organizations were giving too much, too little, or about the right amount of coverage to these stories.

Views on the Supreme Court:  President Obama has signaled his intention to make the Supreme Court an issue in the fall campaign. Gallup’s data on the Court shows that approval of the Court has dropped from 48 percent in the first asking during the Obama presidency to 46 percent in 2011.  The proportion having a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the Court has moved up slightly during his presidency.  Thirty-two percent had high confidence in 2008; 37 percent did so in 2011.

In 2008, 30 percent said the Court was too conservative and 21 percent too liberal.  In 2011, those responses were reversed: 31 percent said it was too liberal and 20 percent too conservative.

Pew’s new poll, taken after the Supreme Courts’ hearing on the health care law last week, showed that 65 percent said their opinion of the Court had not changed from what they saw or heard. Twenty-one percent had a less favorable opinion and 7 percent a more favorable opinion. Democrats were more likely than the public as a whole to have a more negative opinion following the hearings (32 percent). Republicans were slightly more likely than the national sample to have a more favorable view of it (13 percent).

The Road Ahead: The next batch of Republican Primaries occurs April 24. In Connecticut, a mid-march Quinnipiac poll showed Romney up 23 points. In New York, Romney was up 33 points in late March/early April Quinnipiac survey. The last poll we have from Rhode Island, a mid-February PPP poll, shows Romney up 23 points. In Pennsylvania, recent surveys show mixed results. An early April PPP poll shows Romney up 5 points while a late March/early April Quinnipiac poll shows Santorum up 6 points. There has not been any recent polling in the last April 24th state, Delaware. It’s expected that Romney will carry it.

As for the stories in the news this week, we’re confident that most Americans don’t have a well-developed grand theory of taxation. We do know that most people think the system is a mess. The Pew poll from late December found that 60 percent of Republicans, 55 percent of Democrats, and 63 percent of Independents said that there was so much wrong with the system that Congress should completely change it, a sentiment long held by the majority. Americans aren’t confident promises to cut taxes will be kept, whether they are made by Democrats or Republicans. For this reason, Republicans’ advantage on the issue (if it exists, and we have little new polling data on it) continues to be that Republicans are considered more likely to maintain taxes at current levels, though not necessarily to cut them.

As for the auto bailout, virtually every poll we saw in late 2008 and early 2009 showed strong national opposition to the bailout. In a new Gallup poll, 44 percent nationally approved and 51 percent disapproved of the financial bailout of U.S. automakers that were in danger of failing.

In a new NBC/Marist poll from hard-hit Michigan, 63 percent of registered voters said the bailout was a good thing (28 percent bad). But far fewer, only 42 percent, of likely voters in next Tuesday’s primary said it was a good thing (50 percent bad). When asked how much credit the president deserved for the recovery of the industry, 58 percent of registered voters in Michigan said he deserved credit, but only 27 percent of likely primary voters there said he deserved a great deal or a lot of credit.

The most recent poll we could find about affirmative action was from a 2010 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll in which 49 percent agreed that  ”affirmative action programs are still needed to counteract the effects of discrimination against minorities, and are a good idea as long as there are no rigid quotas,” while 43 percent felt the programs “have gone too far in favoring minorities, and should be ended because they unfairly discriminate against whites.” Thirty-one percent strongly supported the programs and 30 percent strongly opposed them. In 2009, 63 percent said the programs were still needed.

Congress continues to get low marks in most polls, and the political parties don’t look much better. Thirty-two percent in the new Quinnipiac poll have a favorable view of the GOP and 37 percent a favorable view of the Democratic Party. Seventy-one percent of Republicans had a favorable view of their party; 78 percent of Democrats had a favorable view of theirs.

As for the Republican nomination contest, maybe there’s been nothing good on TV, but self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents remain as interested in the nomination race as they were in June of 2011. In the new AP-GfK/Roper poll, 72 percent said they were following news about the election a great deal or quite a bit. Seventy-one percent gave that response in June.

Fifty-nine percent of Republicans and GOP leaners in the new poll said they were satisfied with the choices they had for the GOP nomination. Fifty-two percent gave that response last June.

• Up in the air: In a CNN poll of likely Florida Republican primary voters, 64 percent said they will definitely support their preferred candidate. Twenty-five percent said they might change their mind. A Quinnipiac poll this week found 61 percent of likely Florida Republican primary goers said their “mind is made up” and 38 percent said they “might change their mind.” Going into the South Carolina primary, CNN found that 53 percent of likely South Carolina primary voters said they would definitely support their candidate and 38 percent might change their mind.

• Unfair to you, not to me: Forty-five percent told Gallup pollsters that the economic system in this country is fair, 49 percent unfair. But when asked if they think the U.S. economic system is fair to them personally, 62 percent agreed and 36 percent disagreed.

• Economic worries: Fifty-one percent told Gallup that they are worried about being able to maintain their standard of living. Gallup notes that “Americans’ economic anxiety today is most similar to what it was in 1992, though Americans are slightly less worried about not being able to pay medical bills now (43 percent) than they were in 1992 (48 percent).”

• Dinner with the boss: When asked by Suffolk University who they would rather have dinner with, Obama or Romney, 51 percent of Floridians said Obama and 35 percent picked Romney. When asked about investment advice, 53 percent said they would prefer to get it from Romney and 28 percent Obama. Equal numbers said they would respect Obama and Romney as their boss.

• The High Court: Seventy-five percent told Kaiser Family Foundation pollsters that the Supreme Court justices sometimes let their own ideological views influence decisions. Seventeen percent said the justices usually decide cases based on legal analysis. In the poll, 54 percent thought the Supreme Court should rule the individual mandate is unconstitutional. Seventeen percent said it’s constitutional and 29 percent were unsure.

• Third party politics: Forty-eight percent told ABC/Washington Post pollsters that the country needs a third party. Forty-nine percent disagreed. Sixty-one percent of Independents agreed. Far fewer nationally (22 percent) said they would vote for a third party candidate.

• John Boehner and Harry Reid: In the Pew Research Center’s January poll, 21 percent had a favorable view of John Boehner and 40 percent an unfavorable one. A large 39 percent either never heard of him or could not rate him. The responses for Harry Reid were 18 percent favorable and 38 percent unfavorable. Forty-four percent couldn’t rate him. Both Boehner and Reid were less popular with their own party members in the new poll than they were in March 2011.