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7th-graderIn a recent post, Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf takes on the admirable task of explaining federal spending to a seventh grader from Michigan. In particular, Elmendorf explains how federal deficits are essentially borrowing against the future and could detract from the seventh grader’s later consumption. Yet Elmendorf’s math leaves a bit to be desired. He tells the student

The most important thing that school-aged children can do to help reduce future deficits is to study hard and acquire the best possible education. This will help you and your classmates get better jobs when you grow up, which will help the economy grow. In turn, a stronger economy will produce higher tax receipts for the government, which will lower the deficit.

Elmendorf asserts that rising incomes and more tax revenue are all that’s needed to reduce the deficit. That’s true only if spending doesn’t increase as well. Of course, it’s likely that spending will rise for several reasons.

First, there is good reason to believe that growing receipts will lead to higher spending. Information from the White House’s Office of Management and Budget shows that both revenues and spending have grown together over time. Elmendorf says that “pay-go rules” typically require offsetting of new costs,  however, he does not mention that  pay-go-rules exclude the large share of the budget directed toward entitlements.

Entitlements like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are not only large but are growing faster than most parts of the budget. Unlike discretionary spending, which may increase as incomes rise, Social Security is actually designed to grow with income. Social Security indexes benefits to economy-wide wage growth until a person retires. So for each year that the student works to increase his wages, he’s ensuring larger payouts to older workers. (Theoretically, he’s increasing the benefits he’s owed but with the system already running deficits, it’s unlikely a seventh grader today will get the same kinds of benefits as current workers.)

While I’m glad to see students being encouraged to seek higher-paying jobs, it’s unclear that doing so will do much to reduce the deficit without the political will to reduce, or at least hold constant, spending. Doing so will require not only new rules on discretionary spending but also reforming entitlements.

Adam Paul is a research assistant at AEI.

Image by ellie.

The housing bubble expanded in the early 2000s as numerous new investments in housing seemed like sure bets. So sure in fact that regulators in charge of compliance for the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) issued awards to financial institutions that were making risky home loans.

Originally passed in 1977, CRA was intended to prevent redlining and other racially motivated lending practices. In the years since, CRA rules have become a way to encourage loans to low-earners. In fact, CRA awarded firms that had “innovative” ways to reach new markets.

In 2003, Washington Mutual (WaMu) won the favor of the CRA and Fair Lending Colloquium, an annual conference sponsored by the Community Reinvestment Act, which has been co-sponsored at various times by the government-sponsored enterprises and attended by a slew of federal regulators.

WaMu won the award for its Community Access program. In 2002 alone, the program gave almost 5,000 loans for more than $795 million, mostly to borrowers whose loans fell “outside typical credit, income, or debt constraints.”

Ironically, many of those loans came back to devastate WaMu’s balance sheet, leading to the largest bank failure in U.S. history. When WaMu failed, JP Morgan Chase bought the entire firm for just over twice the value of the original size of just Community Access alone. This $1.9 billion purchase was made possible only by writing down $31 billion in value.

Nor has WaMu been the last mistake that the CRAs annual awards have made. In 2004, CRA honored Unizan Bank for its Individual Development Account Asset Management program. CRA wasn’t alone in welcoming Unizan, a year prior the bank was called the number one SBA 7(a) bank in Ohio after expanding its loan volume in the state by more than 20 percent.

Much like WaMu, Unizan stumbled as housing collapsed. In 2006, Unizan, a small Ohio bank, was acquired by Huntington bank after Unizan saw profits dip by 7.5 percent.

Not all the banks that CRA has lauded have failed but almost all of them have been hit by the housing crisis. Wells Fargo, which won the CRA award in 2002 for a housing development it funded in Portland, has been hampered by the toxic assets it acquired in its $15.1 billion purchase of Wachovia. The 2005 winner, Key Bank, has been posting losses since early 2008.

While CRA loans have been show to perform relatively well, the environment fostered by CRA encouraged banks to take undue risk and facilitated the housing bubble. CRA’s award programs provided a government stamp of approval to risky business models because they meet a popular political goal: expanding home ownership.

More analysis of CRA can be found in congressional testimony given by AEI resident scholar Vincent Reinhart this morning.

Adam Paul is a research assistant at AEI.

hotelpeepholeOvernight the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released detailed holdings in its Maiden Lane LLC accounts, the vehicles created to take on assets from the Bear Sterns and American International Group rescues. The portfolio is a mix of distressed securities, such as collateralized debt obligations, government-sponsored enterprise debt, and, of course, real estate loans.

Yes, the New York Fed, as today’s Wall Street Journal points out, now owns loans to a great many pieces of commercial real estate, including many hotels. The Fed has hired professional managers to run these portfolios, but it may do more to directly preserve the shrunken value of those impaired assets.

The Fed can help itself by supporting the hotels that owe it money. For instance, the major annual Federal Reserve Bank research conferences are mostly held in secluded resorts like Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Conveniently enough, the hotel mortgages it holds appear to be spread across the 12 districts of the Federal Reserve System and provide ready substitute locations.

The Boston Fed could toss some business toward the Maiden Lane mortgagee AIM Boston Suites. While the vistas of Jackson Hole are tough to beat, Fed officials are apparently lending money to the Orchard Hotel in Colorado Springs. The Atlanta Fed’s financial markets conference has been held in recent years at Sea Island and Jekyll Island, Georgia. But the Radisson Hotel in Jacksonville could be the venue for future conferences.

Sure, moving the conferences could mean giving up great views and easy access to golf courses, but that’s not really why anyone attends a Fed conference anyway. The Fed will save money, and even make some of it back in New York.

Image by u07ch.

The recent nine-volume examiner’s report on Lehman Brothers has drawn a great deal of attention. In particular, Lehman’s Repo 105—a gimmick used to improve its quarterly earnings reports—has drawn considerable consternation. While there’s good reason to denounce Lehman’s accounting, few have noticed that tactics similar to Repo 105 had been used by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for years.

Generic repos, short for repurchase agreements, are common on Wall Street. Under a repo, a firm takes out a short-term loan and backs it with an asset as collateral. The firm agrees to repay the loan with interest and buy back the collateral. These agreements allow firms to get cash quickly and are accounted for as financing.

Lehman’s 105 differed because a legal loophole allowed the firm to count the transaction as a sale rather than as financing. Lehman didn’t report that it would soon have to pay back that cash but instead amped up its earnings in the days before quarters ended. Immediately following the reporting, Lehman would pay back the loan and take back its assets, effectively dampening earnings.

According to the examiner report, Lehman used the tactic for only a few years. The NY Fed had used the tactic for decades. While Lehman took advantage of “sales” to increase earnings, the Fed used the tactic, which it called matched-sale purchase (MSP) transactions, to skirt laws which forbid it from borrowing. To avoid borrowing, the Fed booked its repos as permanent sales of assets, even though it always agreed to buy back the assets just a few days later.

Lehman’s gimmick was exposed only during the examiner’s investigation. The Fed found the structure potentially damaging to its image and announced in 2002 that it would no longer use MSPs and was switching to reverse repos. Internal decisions about the legal status of reverse repos as “sales” allowed the change to the more transparent approach. Little other than the name of these transactions, which allow the Fed to make short-term changes in its level of reserve, has changed and they were used heavily during the worst of the crisis in 2008.

Neither Lehman nor the NY Fed broke the law. Rather, in response to the law they found the same complex tactic to be the most convenient, albeit misleading, option.

The House passed a recent Senate amendment to increase the U.S. debt ceiling. This raises the debt ceiling by $1.9 trillion, moving the total amount that the government can borrow up to $14.3 trillion, the highest level ever allowed. Yet the debt ceiling has never been a limitation on how much the government can borrow, rather is an endorsement by Congress of how much the Department of Treasury has already borrowed.

As the figure below shows, since the Second World War, debt has almost always been equal to the legal limit. The ceiling isn’t a limit; it is the debt. All of this comes from the vicious cycle between the debt and the ceiling. First, Congress sets, and subsequently exceeds, its spending. As long as this spending exceeds revenue, Treasury has to finance this spending by issuing more debt. Treasury quickly hits its limit—think of it like maxing out a credit card. In the meantime, Congress approves more spending, which Treasury now cannot finance. Then Congress raises the ceiling and can approve more spending.

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As a result Treasury doesn’t view the ceiling as a bound. In fact, Treasury announces in advance when it’s going to need more debt room. In its debt refunding release last November, the Treasury admitted that, “based on current projections, Treasury expects to reach the debt ceiling in mid- to late December.”

Previously on this blog, Vincent Reinhart wrote that this $75 billion refunding was the largest in history. Just this week Treasury outdid itself by announcing that the next refunding will by for $81 billion in coupon securities. Nor does it show signs of scaling back such purchase. Instead, Treasury’s Borrowing Advisory Committee explained this week that severe cutbacks in Treasury sales could actually damage markets. Like the rest of Treasury, the Borrowing Advisory Committee called raising the ceiling an “anticipated” move.

Delegation of debt to the Treasury and creation of the ceiling have given Congress a nice political cover. Members vote explicitly on the ceiling, not the debt level; too bad it’s congressional spending that creates the need to raise the ceiling in the first place.

Social Security in the Slow Lane

By Adam Paul

January 8, 2010, 9:10 am

A new online video, produced by the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare (NCPSSM), reminds seniors that fast-moving legislation is dangerous. After some jarring cutaways to high-speed innovations such as fast food and trains, the video says, “Not everything belongs on the fast track, especially not legislation that touches the lives of millions of American families—but that’s exactly what some in Congress have planned.”

People across the country have shown that sentiment about the healthcare legislation being pushed through Congress, but, surprisingly, NCPSSM isn’t talking about healthcare. NCPSSM is worried about fast-tracking a program that hasn’t seen serious change since 1983: Social Security.

The video attacks a proposal by Senators Kent Conrad (D-North Dakota) and Judd Gregg (R-New Hampshire) to establish a commission to propose changes to correct Social Security’s fiscal shortfall. The last major reforms to Social Security were passed under such a commission. Far from a fast track, the Greenspan Commission took almost two years to prepare its report. The 1983 commission, like the current proposal, required that Congress vote yes or no on all of its recommendations.

While it’s true that Congress voted on those proposals quickly, a great deal of time went into designing those reforms. Additionally, unlike the healthcare proposals that have mutated to fit political convenience with little analysis, the solutions to the Social Security funding shortfall—raising  the retirement age, reducing benefits, increasing taxes, or some combination—are well-known and easily evaluated. In fact, these solutions were vigorously debated in public during President Bush’s attempt to reform the system. Social Security has been in the slow lane for so long that any action is going to speed things up, but that speed is far from dangerous.

Adam Paul is a research assistant at the American Enterprise Institute.

The Tax That Wasn’t

By Adam Paul

December 17, 2009, 9:45 am

The Washington Examiner scares seniors by repeating the claim that early retirees will pay an extra tax of 50 percent on top of the income and payroll taxes they already pay. The “tax” in question is the Social Security retirement earnings test, which reduces Social Security benefits for early retirees who continue or return to work. Could the misunderstanding be good for taxes?

The earnings test applies only to those early retirees between 62 and the normal retirement age, currently 66. The earnings test reduces benefits by 50 cents for each dollar of earnings above $14,160. To retirees who work this looks like a 50 percent tax, on top of all the other taxes they already pay. University of Virginia economist Leora Friedberg has shown that retirees are keenly aware of these limits, often earning right up to the exempt amounts before stopping.

But the earnings test isn’t really a tax. Lost benefit payments are refunded in the form of higher retirement benefits at the full retirement age. Over a retiree’s full lifetime, total benefits aren’t reduced. The Examiner piece ends with a good explanation of this repayment, showing that a retiree could get higher benefits due to the earnings test. But the lede presents a different picture:

If you apply for Social Security benefits before your normal retirement age (66 for workers born 1943 through 1954), you’ll be asked whether you plan to keep working-and, if so, how much you expect to make. How you answer will determine whether Uncle Sam reclaims some of your benefits.

AEI’s Andrew Biggs has tried to clarify the earnings test because the “tax” mentality could discourage work. But the excerpt above also implies an alternative tactic: to avoid the Social Security earnings test, don’t retire early. If people keep working to avoid the earnings test, they would continue to earn, add to their retirement savings, and pay income and payroll taxes. Since wages tend to decline in old age, workers may not gain much additional Social Security benefits from delaying retirement. But their additional work could marginally improve Social Security’s finances, increase their overall retirement income, and add to the economy.

Adam Paul is a research assistant at AEI.

Shovel-Ready Science?

By Adam Paul

October 28, 2009, 10:49 am

Washington has frequently treated budget arithmetic as an exercise in sleight of hand and the legislative process as if it were as much about salesmanship as statesmanship. The stimulus legislation—the Americans Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA)—passed in February lives up to that tradition on both counts.

In a recent contribution in Forbes, colleagues Alex Brill and Amy Roden identified a portion of the stimulus package that Congress and the administration are not likely to let expire. They find that potential science spending could add billions to the deficit.

Greater government spending on science, we are told, will encourage more cutting-edge research and entry by students into upper-level science programs. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi espoused this view during the ARRA debate. “We all know that in business or in science or in education, capital attracts talent. You have to have the labs. And talent attracts capital. And so we want to make very wise investments in this recovery package so it is about innovation,” Pelosi told the House Democratic Steering and Policy Committee.

But there is a problem with what was actually passed. The ARRA required that the decisions made to fund new science projects be made in the ten months after the legislation passed, or exactly as much time required for the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) normal merit review process. But unlike highways, science is rarely shovel-ready. It takes time to craft a proposal to the NSF and the National Institutes of Health and time to evaluate them. As a practical matter, only those projects in the pipeline or close to being done had any prospects of receiving stimulus funds. Thus, there was little new research incentive in ARRA, only a lump-sum transfer to those lucky enough to be completing project applications. Even if ARRA encouraged some hasty applications, the projects still would have come from current researchers rather than attracting the new talent that Pelosi and others envision.

The stimulus bill may be ready to dig into projects, but it will not generate path-breaking research that would contribute to American’s economic competitiveness.

Adam Paul is a research assistant at AEI.


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