In a recent post, Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf takes on the admirable task of explaining federal spending to a seventh grader from Michigan. In particular, Elmendorf explains how federal deficits are essentially borrowing against the future and could detract from the seventh grader’s later consumption. Yet Elmendorf’s math leaves a bit to be desired. He tells the student
The most important thing that school-aged children can do to help reduce future deficits is to study hard and acquire the best possible education. This will help you and your classmates get better jobs when you grow up, which will help the economy grow. In turn, a stronger economy will produce higher tax receipts for the government, which will lower the deficit.
Elmendorf asserts that rising incomes and more tax revenue are all that’s needed to reduce the deficit. That’s true only if spending doesn’t increase as well. Of course, it’s likely that spending will rise for several reasons.
First, there is good reason to believe that growing receipts will lead to higher spending. Information from the White House’s Office of Management and Budget shows that both revenues and spending have grown together over time. Elmendorf says that “pay-go rules” typically require offsetting of new costs, however, he does not mention that pay-go-rules exclude the large share of the budget directed toward entitlements.
Entitlements like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are not only large but are growing faster than most parts of the budget. Unlike discretionary spending, which may increase as incomes rise, Social Security is actually designed to grow with income. Social Security indexes benefits to economy-wide wage growth until a person retires. So for each year that the student works to increase his wages, he’s ensuring larger payouts to older workers. (Theoretically, he’s increasing the benefits he’s owed but with the system already running deficits, it’s unlikely a seventh grader today will get the same kinds of benefits as current workers.)
While I’m glad to see students being encouraged to seek higher-paying jobs, it’s unclear that doing so will do much to reduce the deficit without the political will to reduce, or at least hold constant, spending. Doing so will require not only new rules on discretionary spending but also reforming entitlements.
Adam Paul is a research assistant at AEI.
Image by ellie.

Overnight the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released 