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Assad’s National Dialogue: Doomed to Fail

By Alex Della Rocchetta

July 9, 2011, 4:16 pm

More than six months after the eruption of protests in Tunisia, the Arab Spring has bled into an Arab Summer, and the “Days of Rage” have petered out into “Days of Empty Dialogue.”

Yet the winds of protest continue to blow strong. Friday afternoon, dodging bullets and tear gas from military forces and pro-regime snipers, thousands of Syrian protestors rallied in the restive city of Hama in a symbolic rebuttal of President Bashar al Assad’s hollow entreaty to engage in a “national dialogue,” even as he continues to use lethal force against protestors. As calls for Assad’s downfall continued to reverberate throughout Syria, countless demonstrators expressed their opposition to his forum planned for Sunday.

The discourse has already been labeled a sham by many Syrian democracy activists. They insist that Assad’s request for talks is a transparent effort to fend off international opprobrium over the three-month long suppression of public demonstrations, rather than a genuine response to the legitimate demands of the Syrian citizenry.

The authoritarian leader undoubtedly faces a credibility problem—as Assad has called for channels of communication to be opened, Syrian forces continue to crackdown in the cities of Hama, Jisr Shughur, Dara, and Homs. The absence of key anti-regime protestors from the July 10 talks can almost certainly be attributed to the regime’s refusal to halt the use of violence against protesters.

What will likely end up confining Sunday’s talks to the halls of irrelevance is the fact that Assad’s security forces have been arresting the same young grassroots activists with whom the regime purportedly wants to negotiate. Representatives of the grassroots Local Coordination Committees estimate that more than 100 people have been detained in the Damascus suburb of Domeir alone since Monday, with as many as 300 people since the weekend. Indeed, since Assad’s forces began systematically rounding up the demonstrating youths, only a handful of activists belonging to long-tolerated opposition groups have been left to participate in the national discourse.

For the protestors, Assad’s half-hearted calls for dialogue are likely too little, too late. Prominent opposition figures, who had originally demanded democratic reforms, are demanding nothing short of the toppling of the Assad government. In spite of the rising death toll, now estimated at 1,400 dead, the Syrian opposition shows no sign of forfeiting to the government’s brutal military crackdowns.

Unless the regime concedes sweeping political reforms on Sunday, which it likely will not, the protests will continue to expand in scope and intensity. Expect to see more blood on the hands of the Assad regime.

Kosovo Redux in Libya

By Alex Della Rocchetta

June 30, 2011, 9:20 am

In the latest twist to the Libya campaign, French military officials confirmed Wednesday that they have equipped opposition forces in the western Nafusa mountains with guns, rocket-propelled grenades, and other weaponry. The move is designed to provide momentum to a rebel advance toward Tripoli, as U.S. confidence in the four-month long military offensive wanes.

The conflict has continued longer than many United States and international officials initially envisioned.

While U.S. policy makers continue to debate how long Western military engagement in Libya can last, rebel leaders of the Transitional National Council routinely complain that the international coalition pays no heed to their requests for air support. This lack of support has blunted several promising rebel offensives. It is clear that the sluggish pace of coalition military action has allowed the campaign to drag on, permitting Qaddafi government forces to continue their attacks on civilian populations in Nalut, Zintan, and Yifran, and to crack down on civilians in cities already under Qaddafi control.

From the outset of the conflict, the intervention in Libya has been beset by a level of military incrementalism reminiscent of the 1999 air war in Kosovo. The war in Kosovo was launched to stop Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic’s genocidal assault on Kosovo’s Albanian population. The tepid start of NATO’s campaign in Kosovo strengthened Milosevic’s belief that he could wait out an air war, and in the meantime provided him an opportunity to escalate ethnic cleansing against the Albanians.

Indeed, by increasing military pressure in moves considered modest at best, NATO has allowed Qaddafi sufficient time to adjust to, and counter, the tactics employed by rebels on the ground and coalition air assets above. NATO’s current efforts to fight a minimalistic campaign may eventually work, but it is in the alliance’s best interests to employ the means that will bring the war to its speediest possible close and prevent Qaddafi from having the opportunity to inflict further atrocities against the civilian population.

In his new piece, entitled “Trying to Win Ugly, Again: NATO Brings Incrementalism to Libya, my colleague Reza Jan at AEI’s Critical Threats Project argues that NATO has disregarded lessons of previous conflicts hampered by military incrementalism, namely the intervention in Kosovo. In doing so, NATO is “choosing to allow rather than deny Qaddafi the time necessary to inflict further brutalities upon Libyan innocents, as a result, violating the spirit of bellum iustum, Just War, and the UNSC resolution under whose pretext it chose to engage in war.” In order to avoid the political consequences of a failed mission, Jan identifies the necessary steps to be taken—providing rebels with close air support, expanding operations against regime assets, and increasing the number of military advisors on the ground, among others—in order to avoid the missteps of past interventions.

Stepping up the campaign is likely to be politically unpopular at home. The decision to use lethal force has, however, already been made and it is now incumbent upon our political leaders to give its commanders the latitude they need to do the job properly. The United States has the opportunity to “make use of history” and bring the conflict to a swift and conclusive end. Or Obama can repeat the mistakes of the past, at a cost that can only be imagined.

Osama bin Laden, Head of Marketing, Urges Name Change

By Alex Della Rocchetta

June 24, 2011, 4:40 pm

Osama bin Laden—a terrorist CEO, selling holy war on behalf of a corporation suffering a drop in market share? For the intelligence analysts mining the data seized from the terror chief’s compound in Abbottabad, likening bin Laden to a public relations director may not be too far from the truth.

According to a handwritten letter recovered during the U.S. raid that killed him, the al Qaeda No. 1 lamented that the terrorist group was afflicted by an image management quandary. Indeed, this dilemma reportedly led bin Laden to consider transforming the organization’s brand in order to conduct a strategic public relations offensive against the West, who he considered to be winning the PR fight.

Specifically, the undated letter reveals bin Laden’s concerns over increasingly negative connotations being associated with his terror group’s name. The 9/11 mastermind believed that the bad rap was largely the result of al Qaeda killing too many Muslims in Iraq, thought to be “bad for business,” which allegedly prompted him to consider renaming the group. Bin Laden furthermore argued that the habitual shortening of the terrorist group’s full name (al Qaeda al Jihad meaning “The Base of Holy War”) to just al Qaeda had allowed the West to “claim deceptively that they are not at war with Islam.” In fact, in President Obama’s speech on Afghanistan on Wednesday, he referred to bin Laden’s concerns that al Qaeda had “failed in its effort to portray America as a nation at war with Islam, thereby draining more widespread support.”

However, rather than justify bin Laden’s written admission of al Qaeda’s decline in widespread support as a reason to disengage from the region, the United States and its allies must remain vigilant in their efforts to ensure that Afghanistan and Pakistan will not become a safe haven for al Qaeda. With the formal announcement that bin Laden’s former deputy Ayman al Zawahiri has been appointed as the organization’s new No. 1, it would be a grave mistake to underestimate the threat Zawahiri’s al Qaeda will pose to U.S. national security.

Though top executives in al Qaeda may have been deposed and the group’s popularity metrics are down, there is nothing like a lack of direct “competition” for AQ’s stock to rebound.

With Growing Isolationism, We Need Obama to Lead Now More Than Ever

By Alex Della Rocchetta

June 14, 2011, 6:36 pm

Libyan rebels recently broke through a Qaddafi government blockade on their approach to Tripoli, as opposition forces across the country mount an aggressive resurgence amid an intensified NATO air campaign. According to recent opinion polls, however, rebel success has not translated into an increase in American public support for the war. This is indicative of a growing isolationist sentiment espoused by the U.S. public.

According to a new Rasmussen Reports survey, just 26 percent of likely United States voters feel that the U.S. should continue to engage in military action in Libya. Meanwhile, 42 percent are opposed and 32 percent remain undecided on the issue. As Congress ponders the merits of executive unilateralism in Libya, the survey found that 59 percent of voters believe that President Obama should seek the approval of Congress if he plans to continue U.S. military action in the country. The number marks a jump in support for congressional authorization from when President Obama initially committed U.S. military resources to the Libyan mission in mid-March. The increase is not just reflective of public opinion on the powers of the executive, but is evidence of a growing sentiment of isolationism in the U.S.

The June 10 Pew Research Center poll provides evidence that Americans are becoming more isolationist. Indeed, the center reports that the present assessment of isolationist sentiment is the highest recorded in over four decades. There are other indications of the public’s reservations on American engagement in the world. Seventy-seven percent of those surveyed declare it is more important for President Obama to engage with U.S. domestic policy, a stark contrast to the 9 percent who state that the president should focus more on foreign policy.

Whether this trend can be partially attributed to skepticism about achieving success in the “war on terror” or to domestic economic turmoil, the repercussions of an isolationist streak are considerable. It would be damaging for the current public sentiment to push the U.S. to fully extricate itself from humanitarian intervention and bold policies amid the havoc of the Arab Spring.  Engaging with Libya, Syria, Egypt, Yemen, etc. is necessary and fundamental, as it allows the United States to be an active participant in shaping a friendlier Middle East, in line with democratic values and stability.

In order to combat the trend of American isolationism and salvage public support for the mission in Libya, President Obama must stage an immediate reversal from his approach implemented at the outset, one characterized by ambiguity and inconsistency. Indeed, the president must now present clear and consistent objectives on the direction that the war is heading. In the manner of the congressional resolution sponsored by House Speaker John Boehner and his subsequent written warning released Tuesday, which directs the president to explain the United States’ purpose in Libya, President Obama must engage in a candid dialogue with Congress and the public.

If the administration had articulated a coherent approach and unambiguous justification from the outset, it is reasonable to assume that the poll numbers on Libya would look significantly more promising.

Mumbai Terror Trial Reveals Intimate ISI-LeT Relationship

By Alex Della Rocchetta

June 10, 2011, 12:25 pm

For the families of the more than 160 people killed in the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, there will be no justice coming from the Windy City.

After two days of deliberation, Chicago businessman Tahawwur Rana was acquitted Thursday on charges that he played a role in organizing the 2008 terror attacks in Mumbai, carried out by the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terror network. While the jury ultimately found Rana not guilty in relation to the Mumbai attacks, the businessman was convicted on two charges of providing material support to terrorist organizations and plotting an attack on a Danish newspaper that published controversial caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad.

In the lead-up to the widely publicized trial, many anticipated that details about the role of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency in the terror attacks would be exposed. While allegations of a close relationship between the ISI and LeT are nothing new, testimony by David Coleman Headley, a co-conspirator of Mr. Rana’s who had pleaded guilty to terrorism charges, gave further insight into the breadth and complexity of the LeT as well as al Qaeda. Continue reading


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