Four years after Bolivian President Evo Morales was elected, the poor are poorer and that country’s ethnic, social, and regional divisions are as pronounced and explosive as ever. Nevertheless, Morales has exploited these weaknesses to win a second term yesterday, in elections that may be remembered as the last stand for pluralistic democracy and the rule of law in Bolivia.
Most foreign observers have ignored the fact that Morales recently declared himself a Marxist-Leninist and that a cadre of extremist advisers have brandished fascist tactics to push Bolivia to the brink. The opposition’s only hope was to deny Morales’s movement a congressional majority, but it appears that he will have the two-thirds vote in both houses to authorize his indefinite re-election and to ram through constitutional reforms that will further polarize the country.
Although there may be little for outsiders to do but watch Bolivia disintegrate, chaos in a state where the government is abetting coca production may have serious consequences for countries in the Americas and Europe already impacted by the illegal drug trade.
Unfortunately, as oil revenues drop and as political grievances boil over, Bolivians will not have the institutions to pull together, as Morales would have pulled them apart. An ethnic tinderbox with fierce political, social, and regional differences could produce a failed state in the heart of cocaine country. South American countries that relish seeing the United States expelled from Bolivia will be forced to contend with this crisis on their own.