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090224-N-2855B-014After winning nearly 70 percent of the 13 million votes cast in Colombia’s Sunday presidential run-off, ex-defense minister Juan Manuel Santos promised to deliver “national unity” and to expand access to “prosperity, health, quality education, and decent housing.” He also vowed to fight “corruption and impunity” and to smooth over the very tense relations between the executive branch and the judiciary. Santos’s election challenges Washington to define a coherent policy by delivering a promised free-trade agreement and continued security aid, both of which face an uncertain future in the Congress.

Santos’s strength matches the approval ratings of his chief backer, outgoing President Alvaro Uribe, whose get-tough strategy has gone a long way toward defeating the narco-guerrilla threat, taming criminality in Colombia’s major cities, imposing the rule of law in untamed rural areas, and restoring economic growth. “Colombians voted overwhelmingly today to support a government program that continues and builds on the progress of the Uribe administration,” Santos acknowledged in his victory speech.

It is significant that the United States has had no closer friend in South America in the last decade than Colombia under Uribe. With Santos’s victory ensuring continued anti-drug cooperation, Colombians will continue to press Washington for approval of a free-trade agreement and crucial security assistance to consolidate the gains of the bipartisan “Plan Colombia” security package, which was authored by a Republican Congress in cooperation with the Clinton administration a decade ago.

Santos soundly whipped Green Party candidate and former Bogota mayor Antanas Mockus, who held a small but apparently illusory lead in many polls in April. Critics of the iron-willed Uribe were delighted to see his favored candidate challenged by the free-spirited Mockus, but Colombians were apparently spooked when the successful mayor failed to show a command of persistent security issues, notably the threat posed by their belligerent neighbor, Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez.

Experts commenting in Colombian newspapers, including the daily El Tiempo, opined that Santos should pay particular attention to broad-based economic development to overcome inequality that is caused by a lack of education, training, and healthcare. Another noted the challenge of ending the long war, which has decimated but not eliminated the guerrillas’ ranks. Still others said Santos should make Colombia a leader in regional integration—seeking to overcome the tensions with neighbors Venezuela and Ecuador.

Image by Petty Officer 1st Class Molly A. Burgess, U.S. Navy.

This week’s state visit of Mexican President Felipe Calderón to the United States comes at an extraordinarily complicated time for both nations. Tension over illegal immigration and related crime has set off a polarizing debate within the United States. Calderón’s bold “war on drugs” has sparked bloody reprisals from the narcotraffickers and stirred doubts among the Mexican people. Mexico’s economy is expected to post a modest rebound of 3 to 4 percent this year after suffering a 7 percent contraction in 2009 (the worst in 80 years). However, its strong links to the belabored U.S. economy (compounded by the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, falling oil revenues, and drug violence) have taken a significant toll on exports, employment, and consumer confidence.

As if to punctuate Mexico’s melodrama, last Friday, national political figure Diego Fernández de Cevallos, the 1994 presidential candidate and the “grand old man” of Calderón’s National Action Party, disappeared without a trace, his abandoned Humvee found on a road near his ranch. Early reports of “bloody footprints” and bullet holes in the vehicle have not been confirmed by authorities, but the rumors have led many Mexicans to assume that Fernández is the latest victim of a drug-related kidnapping or worse. As of Tuesday night, his family has not received any communications from abductors.

So, as state visits go, this one promises to be a decidedly somber affair. Indeed, if evidence turns up that Fernández is being held hostage or worse, it is not out of the question that the two leaders might postpone the visit.

Continue reading here.

564px-hugo_chavez_photo_cut_27-06-2008In a private luncheon at a regional summit in Cancún yesterday, Colombian President Álvaro Uribe took his Venezuelan counterpart Hugo Chávez to task for imposing a de facto embargo on Colombian trade and investment. The Venezuelan dictator—who is known for his own bombastic declarations and wild accusations against Colombia—took offense when Uribe compared Chávez’s hostile treatment of Colombia with the embargo on Cuba. Chávez accused Uribe of dispatching assassins to kill him, and he threatened to storm out of the summit. According to diplomats who witnessed the event, Uribe then shouted at Chávez, “Be a man!  You’re brave at a distance, but a coward face-to-face.” The Venezuelan responded by telling Uribe, “Vete al carajo!” the most polite translation of which is, “Go to hell!”

Chávez is not accustomed to being challenged. Indeed, the so-called “international community” has let him off the hook despite hard evidence that he has been waging a proxy war against Colombia for the better part of a decade; computer hard drives captured from a slain guerrilla leader prove that Chávez is providing these terrorists with money, arms, and other material support. Unchallenged, Chávez has repeatedly whipped up nationalist sentiments at home as a cudgel against his internal opposition, put his military on a war footing, and sought to punish Colombia by cutting back on trade.

Ironically, this confrontation came at a summit of Latin American and Caribbean leaders intended to launch a “regional mechanism” that might serve as an alternative to the Organization of American States (OAS). Apparently, Latin and Caribbean diplomats think that a new forum—minus the United States and Canada—might advance their common interests more effectively. However, it is clear from the showdown in Cancún that Chávez is the problem. His polarizing, bullying style has poisoned the atmosphere at the OAS and will undermine confidence wherever he goes.

Image by Marcello Casal Jr. for Agencia Brasil.

Every SOTU address has a handful of paragraphs that were drafted by a committee—and they usually expose issues where the president just doesn’t care enough to question the words on the page before he speaks them.

A couple of our Latin American neighbors got the brush off in this paragraph that was nuanced to within an inch of meaninglessness.

If America sits on the sidelines while other nations sign trade deals, we will lose the chance to create jobs on our shores…. And that’s why … we will strengthen our trade relations in Asia and with key partners like South Korea, Panama, and Colombia.

Nice words, I suppose. But the president doesn’t actually come out and ask Congress to ratify trade agreements with these countries, which were negotiated by President Bush and which have been languishing in the Congress for years. (Speaker Nancy Pelosi rewrote the “fast track” rules of the House with the express aim of shelving the trade accord with our best ally in the Americas, Colombia; last night, she choked when the president mentioned Colombia but recovered when she realized that he didn’t actually endorse the accord.)

A very compelling fact is that Colombia is a key ally in the fight against drugs and terrorism and faces almost weekly bellicose threats from President Hugo Chavez in neighboring Venezuela. Panamanians recently elected a new pro-American president, who was the object of a kidnapping plot discovered last week involving foreign-backed narcoterrorists. Ratifying both of these agreements now would send a very clear signal that these are strategic partners that enjoy our unmitigated support, which could back off warmongering by Chavez and other thugs. Instead, the Obama drafting committee opted for words that would pass muster with the anti-trade union bosses but left the president looking less than serious.

As a result, leaders in three friendly countries are left scratching their heads and wondering where they stand with us. Aren’t we supposed to sow doubts with our enemies and embolden our friends?

Roger Noriega

Piñera’s Historic Win

By Roger Noriega

January 19, 2010, 7:06 am

sebastian_pinera_2009On Sunday, Chile’s voters chose conservative entrepreneur Sebastián Piñera as their new president, giving him a 52–48 percent margin of victory and the task of restoring economic dynamism, creating 600,000 new jobs, and pushing their country to a new level of development. Piñera’s win is historic, defeating former president Eduardo Frei and the center-left coalition that has held power since the end of military rule 20 years ago.

In his victory address before a crowd of 4,000 supporters, alluding to the upcoming 200th anniversary of Chile’s bid for independence from Spain, Piñera convoked the “bicentennial generation” to take up the urgent task of “restoring the country’s capacity for growth and improving the quality of life for all.” He promised a “strong and efficient state—with more muscle and less fat—that helps those most in need and simultaneously promotes innovation and entrepreneurship of its citizens.”

Piñera’s narrow victory is hardly a repudiation of the ruling party, whose market-oriented policies and fiscal restraint helped the economy grow consistently while reducing the percentage of Chileans living in poverty from 39 to 13 percent. Current socialist President Michelle Bachelet has secured a 70 percent–plus approval rating by hewing to free market policies while extending coverage of the country’s signature social services to the very poor and women. Nevertheless, Chileans clearly sense that their country needs the talents of Piñera, an able, public-spirited tycoon, to restore their competitive edge.

Piñera has a complicated and delicate task ahead. To implement his agenda, he will have to forge a working majority in the Congress between his rightist alliance and moderate Christian Democrats. And he will have to balance a number of priorities: creating jobs by invigorating the economy, increasing Chile’s global competitiveness, improving the efficiency of a backward educational system, and keeping government spending under control.

Foreign policy is another challenge. Recent governments have managed to showcase Chile’s successes in the international community, but they were very uncomfortable being touted as a “model” for other countries. Part of their strategy has been to pursue a very cautious, diffident foreign policy. Moreover, for ideological and historic reasons, they have refused to criticize Cuba’s Fidel Castro, Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, or other leftist leaders. Bachelet has even managed to build fairly positive relations with the prickly leftist Evo Morales, president of Chile’s historic enemy, Bolivia. Although Piñera focused almost exclusively on domestic issues during the campaign, he did not pull his punches in referring to Cuba as a “dictatorship,” and he noted that Venezuela under Chávez is “not a democracy.” Surely the billionaire conservative will draw fire from his leftist counterparts, but Piñera probably knows that his introverted compatriots have little stomach for a confrontational foreign policy. He has little choice but to begin on a pragmatic note by backing the reelection this year of Chilean socialist Jose Miguel Insulza as secretary general of the Organization of American States (OAS), despite the fact that Insulza has squandered the OAS’s credibility along with his own by ignoring the anti-democratic conduct of leftist caudillos (strongmen).

President-elect Sebastián Piñera appears content to focus on building a government of the best and the brightest, with a straightforward agenda of helping Chileans “who are without work, who are fearful of crime, who are trapped by drugs, who are awaiting healthcare, or who want a decent house for their families.” Celebrating his historic victory and looking forward, he renewed the government’s commitment to help “the dispossessed,” but he noted that Chileans will pull themselves out of poverty “by their own achievements and effort.”

Image by Comando de Sebastián Piñera.

Four years after Bolivian President Evo Morales was elected, the poor are poorer and that country’s ethnic, social, and regional divisions are as pronounced and explosive as ever. Nevertheless, Morales has exploited these weaknesses to win a second term yesterday, in elections that may be remembered as the last stand for pluralistic democracy and the rule of law in Bolivia.

Most foreign observers have ignored the fact that Morales recently declared himself a Marxist-Leninist and that a cadre of extremist advisers have brandished fascist tactics to push Bolivia to the brink. The opposition’s only hope was to deny Morales’s movement a congressional majority, but it appears that he will have the two-thirds vote in both houses to authorize his indefinite re-election and to ram through constitutional reforms that will further polarize the country.

Although there may be little for outsiders to do but watch Bolivia disintegrate, chaos in a state where the government is abetting coca production may have serious consequences for countries in the Americas and Europe already impacted by the illegal drug trade.

Unfortunately, as oil revenues drop and as political grievances boil over, Bolivians will not have the institutions to pull together, as Morales would have pulled them apart. An ethnic tinderbox with fierce political, social, and regional differences could produce a failed state in the heart of cocaine country. South American countries that relish seeing the United States expelled from Bolivia will be forced to contend with this crisis on their own.

While leftist authoritarians backed by the budding dictator Hugo Chavez are attacking democracy in Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, two elections in Honduras and Uruguay underscore that free elections are embraced by people throughout the Americas.

In Honduras, nearly two-thirds of the eligible voters turned out to elect Porfirio “Pepe” Lobo as their new president. The historically high turnout (20 percent greater than elections four years ago) and 57–38 percent margin of victory is expected to put an end to a political crisis that was sparked by the illegal bid by former president Manuel Zelaya to hold on to power. The United States and several Central American governments already have pledged to recognize these elections. However, new leadership at the U.S. State Department and the Honduran president-elect will have to convince Brazil and other nations to accept the legitimacy of the new government, which takes power in January.

Lobo is a businessman of the Nationalist Party who narrowly lost to Zelaya in 2005. He defeated Elvin Santos, of Zelaya’s Liberal Party, who conceded last night. The real losers were those who cast doubt on the democratic process with the intent of undermining the transition and sustaining the costly crisis. Several leftist governments—following Chavez’s lead—have sought to delegitimize the process, and the Organization of American States refused to observe the elections. However, Lobo’s convincing margin, Santos’ recognition of the free and fair balloting, and the overwhelming turnout should be sufficient to convince any serious government that the Honduran people have spoken, and it is time to move on.

In Uruguay, a former leftist revolutionary secured power at the ballot box, having failed in the 1970s to win power through violent struggle. Jose Mujica won a 5-point margin over former President Luis Alberto Lacalle, who recognized the results. The Uruguayan people gave Mujica a vote of confidence to succeed another leftist, Tabare Vazquez, who has governed with moderation, pursued responsible economic policies, and maintained a very positive relationship with the United States.

During the campaign, Mujica said that he “repented,” and he condemned the “stupid ideologies that come from the 1970s.” He rejected statist recipes and anti-Americanism. “Down with ’isms!,” he shouted during the campaign. “I am more than completely cured of simplifications, of dividing the world into good and evil, of thinking in black and white. I have repented!”

It remains to be seen whether Mujica will choose to continue moderate, market-oriented policies favored by his predecessor Vazquez and his model, Brazilian President Luis Inacio “Lula” da Silva. Uruguayan institutions are so strong and centrist that he will have little choice but to pursue a middle-of-the-road course in domestic affairs. However, Chavez will spare no effort to see if he can teach the new dog old tricks.

Too many patronizing outsiders are quick to seize on the notion that Latin Americans are not mature enough for traditional democracy, primarily as an excuse for the transgressions of dictators on the Right or, lately, the Left. For example, Venezuela’s Chavez and Bolivia’s Evo Morales explain that they have to tear down old institutions to usher in a more just political and social order. It is more than transparent that what they are up to is destroying constitutional separations of power and the rule of law with the intention of consolidating power and holding on to it indefinitely.

When Hondurans were forced to decide between Chavismo and democracy they made the right choice. After months of wrongheaded decisions, the international community can do the right thing and choose democracy, too.

What will the American people say if it is discovered that their government pulled diplomatic strings to put a friend of drug traffickers back in power in Honduras?

Manuel Zelaya, who was deposed on Sunday for his willful violations of the Honduran Constitution, was never much of a friend of the United States, and rumors of his garden-variety corruption are nothing new. Nevertheless, President Obama issued a zealous statement in the Oval Office on Monday saying that Mr. Zelaya remains the president of Honduras, and he has put his administration on the side of reinstating Zelaya.

But wait. President Obama might want to ask our intelligence and law enforcement agencies what they know about Zelaya’s drug corruption, in light of public allegations that just surfaced.

On Tuesday (June 30), the Associated Press published an accusation by a current Honduran official that Mr.  Zelaya’s government “allowed tons of cocaine to be flown into the Central American country on its way to the United States.” Honduran Foreign Minister Enrique Ortez is quoted as saying, “Every night, three or four Venezuelan-registered planes land without the permission of appropriate authorities and bring thousands of pounds . . . and packages of money that are the fruit of drug trafficking . . . We have proof of all of this. Neighboring governments have it. The DEA has it.”

Although the administration’s left-wing supporters have suggested a reappraisal of the “war on drugs” in Latin America, I am fairly confident that President Obama would draw the line at actually putting the drug smugglers’ friend back in power in Honduras. Drug thugs are streaming southward to Central America, evading Mexico’s stepped up law enforcement efforts. The tiny states of Guatemala and Honduras do not have the security resources to resist the blood-thirsty cartels. Drug-related crime, murders, money laundering, and kidnapping are spiraling upward, and most observers are convinced that officials are vulnerable to threats and bribes.

U.S. officials and private citizens in these countries have intimated to me on many occasions that their governments are complicit in these illegal activities. The public accusations that emerged on Tuesday have a ring of truth to them. And no U.S. diplomat—or commander-in-chief for that matter—will want to be accused in the weeks ahead of turning a blind eye to allegations of drug corruption by Zelaya while they were busy putting him back where he can do some real damage to our security.

The accusations demand immediate scrutiny. Zelaya has been busy this week playing political martyr. But we need to know now how much of saint he ain’t.

Honduran President Manuel Zelaya, a clownish caudillo (strongman) and acolyte of Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez, has been riding for a fall in his clumsy campaign to amend the constitution to allow him to seek a second term. Alas, this weekend, he fell out of the saddle—arrested by the military and sent into exile after the Supreme Court declared his efforts unconstitutional.

Zelaya was determined to replicate Chavez’s power grab, using populist rhetoric to sow class conflict and incite the mob. He demanded a referendum this past Sunday that he hoped would bless his second term. Before the vote, the Honduran supreme court, congress, electoral tribunal, attorney general, and human rights ombudsman declared the referendum illegal, and the military chief refused to order his forces to distribute the ballots. In response, Zelaya fired the general, causing all the military chiefs and the civilian defense minister to quit. The supreme court ruled that dismissal illegal, but Zelaya led a mob of his supporters to confiscate the ballots and vowed to go forward.

On Sunday morning, Zelaya was arrested by military forces and flown to Costa Rica. The supreme court blessed this move, and the congress appointed a successor, in accordance with the constitution. Last night, the Organization of American States (OAS), joined by vigorous support from the United States, demanded Zelaya’s restoration to power.

My guess is that the Hondurans—who ignored the U.S. embassy’s warnings in ousting Zelaya in the first place—will stand by their interpretation of their own constitution and go it alone until November presidential elections. The details will be debated by legal scholars and diplomats for months. But the following is clear:

•    Zelaya—consumed by personal ambition and egged on by his mentors in Caracas and Havana—provoked a confrontation that he did not have the wit to win.
•    Honduran institutions rose to the challenge and applied the rule of law as they saw it: the military appears to be defending those institutions and not advancing its own agenda.
•    Unwilling to cross Chavez, the OAS’s leadership turned a blind eye when Zelaya was violating the Honduran constitution as well as the region’s Democratic Charter (which explicitly blesses “separation of powers”).

The OAS has refused to act as leftist caudillos shredded their constitutions and stole elections in Bolivia, Ecuador, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Having ignored these abuses, the OAS cannot pretend that it has any moral authority to second-guess the people of these nations when they move to defend their democracies.

President Obama ascended to office knowing little about Latin America. He’ll learn a thing or two from the current debate over Cuba’s readmission to the Organization of American States (OAS), under way now at the group’s annual assembly in Honduras. We’re about to learn whether his goal of “restoring American leadership” means merely running with the crowd.

The OAS is papered over with solemn pledges of upholding “representative democracy” and respecting human rights. Its Inter-American Democratic Charter, signed on the fateful day of September 11, 2001, imposes a clear definition of democracy as a condition of membership in the Inter-American System, including respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms; access to and the free exercise of power in accordance with the rule of law; the holding of periodic, free, and fair elections based on secret balloting and universal suffrage; a pluralistic system of political parties and organizations; freedom of expression and of the press; etc.

One would think that a Stalinist dictatorship in Cuba would not pass muster. Think again. More than two dozen of the 34 OAS member states have reportedly signed on to a draft to lift Cuba’s suspension unconditionally.

The U.S. delegation is pleading with other nations to adhere to the principles of the charter, but most of our Latin and Caribbean neighbors are just fine with handing President Obama a bitter defeat in the interest of solidarity with Fidel Castro. In a few short months, the euphoria over President Obama ushering in a new era of engagement with the region seems to have disappeared—demonstrating the limits of charisma.

Sad to say, President Obama invited this showdown by signaling his “get along, go along” approach at the April summit where he sat silently as leftist pygmies excoriated the United States for all of the region’s ills. When the State Department announced the resumption of anodyne migration talks with Cuba in the midst of the OAS debate, Latin diplomats surmised, “if they can talk, so can we.” Our democratic friends in Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Colombia, Peru, etc. must have concluded from President Obama’s summit performance, “If he isn’t willing to stand up to Chavez to defend democracy and U.S. leadership, why should we?”

Most genuine democrats in the region will see Cuba’s readmission to the OAS as the last act of self-immolation by a club of “states” that is less and less relevant to the people of the region. Our president should never shrink from taking a principled stand on the side of the people. Now, that’s leadership.

Roger Noriega

Castro, Sí, Cubanos, No?

By Roger Noriega

May 6, 2009, 8:09 am

House Ways and Means Chairman Charlie Rangel (D-NY) and U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Tom Donohue held a news conference Tuesday to announce their agreement on a single issue: unilateral concessions to the Castro regime will be good for Cubans. I like it better when these two guys are arguing.

As it happens, their prescription would be a disaster for the Cuban people. The good news is that President Obama says that he has pinned his Cuba policy on respect for human rights and political freedom and is looking for evidence of genuine change in Cuba before considering changes in U.S. sanctions.castro1

Mr. Donohue’s coalition pushed for U.S. agriculture sales to Cuba in 2000, and last year U.S. farmers sold about $700 million in exports to Cuba. He argued at the press conference that U.S. business could make a lot more money trading with the bankrupt communist island and, at the same time, would help undermine the very regime doling out these lucrative deals. Mr. Donohue must know that the Cuban regime has required some farm groups to sign accords committing themselves to working against U.S. sanctions. Are these fervent agents of change going to work against the regime that is cutting them sweetheart deals?   The fact is, one of the best arguments against resuscitating the Castro regime is that the island’s economy is bound to recover mightily once Cubans are truly free, and American business can cash in without sacrificing our principles or the fate of 11 million Cubans.

The question today is not whether to keep the embargo on Cuba but how you go about lifting it. Shall we make unilateral concessions to an illegitimate, abusive, and hostile regime that is clinging to power or shall we save that leverage to use with a transition government that might give Cubans their country back? Anyone who gives a hoot for the Cuban people would have no problem answering that question correctly.

On Sunday, Panamanian voters gave maverick conservative Ricardo Martinelli a 61-to-37 percent win over the ruling party candidate, Balbina Herrera. While one might read this result as a judgment that the country is on the wrong course, it is more of a rejection of the legacy of jailed dictator Manuel Antonio Noriega, with whom Herrera was closely identified. In fact, although Martinelli pledged “real change” and a crack down on crime, he is likely to keep the country moving up a free-market, pro-growth path after he assumes office on June 1.

Panamanians have a knack for using elections to alternate power between the left-leaning Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) of dictator Omar Torrijos and a cluster of conservative parties. For example, in 1998, despite the fact that Panamanians approved strongly of the performance of then PRD president Ernesto Perez Balladares, they soundly defeated a constitutional amendment to overturn the ban on presidential reelection. “We like him,” I recall a local telling me the day of the vote, “but we can’t allow a ‘civil dictatorship.’”

Voters subsequently elected opposition figure Mireya Moscoso, whose administration was marred with corruption and weak leadership. The PRD reclaimed the presidency in 2004, with the legendary Torrijos’s unassuming son, Martin, winning a plurality over a splintered opposition. Torrijos has governed these last five years as a centrist, pro-growth leader, and his administration’s policies have produced an impressive economic boom that is evident in the towering cranes that are transforming Panama City. When nearly 80 percent of voters voted 18 months ago to approve a $5.2 billion project to modernize the Panama Canal with a new set of locks to accommodate new vast freighters, the referendum was seen as a vote of confidence in the government. Torrijos used his popularity to win ratification of a free trade agreement with the United States, which is languishing in the U.S. Congress.

Just over a year later, the ruling party was divided by a bitter primary fight that led to Herrera’s victory amid cries of fraud. Allegations of corruption, a slowing economy (which had been galloping at 8 percent to 9 percent annual growth a few years ago), and Herrera’s historic ties to Noriega and to the meddling Venezuelan leftist Hugo Chavez resulted in a landslide for the outspoken Martinelli.

Panamanians should be proud at how they are using democratic elections and able management of the Canal (which one insightful U.S. diplomat told me they are “running as a business, rather than as a public utility”) to build a firm foundation for the future. The Obama administration can do more than issue a press release congratulating Panamanians on a clean election; it should also commit to getting the pending trade agreement through the Democratically-controlled U.S. Congress. Panamanians have earned that strategic partnership.