AMERICAN.COM

Mitt Romney’s favorability ratings are way down. In the latest Pew poll, 32 percent have a favorable opinion of him and 49 percent have an unfavorable one. In contrast, 54 percent have a favorable opinion towards President Obama and 42 percent an unfavorable one.

Even if Romney is able to win Michigan, the last couple of weeks have cost him dearly in the form of personal likability. Romney’s declining ratings will certainly hurt him in the general election if he gets the Republican nomination. But how much?

Since 1992, the lowest favorability rating of a winning presidential candidate in October of the election year was George W. Bush’s in 2004. In late October 2004, 51 percent had a favorable opinion of him and 46 percent did not. But unlike Romney right now, Bush in 2004 had a net favorable rating. Compared to where other winning candidates ended their election cycle, Romney needs to pick up a lot of ground.

Romney’s current 17-point gap between his unfavorable and favorable rating spells trouble. Americans aren’t likely to vote for someone they don’t like personally. But can Mitt Romney change his fortunes and make himself more likable? All the TV ads in the world aren’t likely to do the trick. George W. Bush in 2000 was the most successful in increasing his favorability. He gained five points between March 2000 (57 percent) and late October 2000 (62 percent) in Pew’s polling. The largest overall change occurred in 1992, when George H.W. Bush lost 14 points between March and October.

Even if Mitt was able to “pull a George W. Bush” he would end the general election with a favorable rating of 37 percent. Based on the historical data alone, it seems highly unlikely that he could get elected with those numbers.

There is a potential source of comfort for the Romney campaign. Eighteen percent in the February Pew poll have either never heard of or don’t know how they feel about Mitt Romney. When these people do finally crawl out from whatever rock they are currently living under, there is a chance that Romney’s ratings could improve. But I wouldn’t count on it. Generally, undecided voters tend to break negative when they come around to forming opinions on causes or people.

The other caution here, which speaks to any statistical analysis of election data, is that every election is different. Voters base their final decision on a variety of factors, such as the issues and the incumbent’s performance. Americans could, despite their favorable dispositions toward President Obama, conclude he is not up the job and turn to someone who they deem more able despite not being as likable But a campaign that boils down to “You may not like me, but I can do the job” isn’t exactly the most solid foundation for a presidential campaign.