Certainly some jobs growth is better than zero jobs growth. But more than two years into a supposed recovery, 9.1 percent unemployment (16.5 percent if you measure it more broadly to include the underemployed) and 103,000 net new jobs is not much to get excited about. The Labor Department report probably eases concerns just a bit that the United States is about to slip back into recession without a nudge from Europe. The econ team at Barclays bank sees it this way:
Overall, the employment report is reassuring and suggests that the labor market is showing durability in the face of the various risks on the horizon, such as the European debt crisis and possible fiscal tightening in the US.
Politically, I don’t think this does much for President Obama’s reelection hopes. Time is running out to make a substantial dent in unemployment, as Matt McDonald of Hamilton Place Strategies notes:
The benchmark for the unemployment rate to get below 8% by Election Day was 270,000 jobs per month going into today’s report (see the memo). After today’s report, that benchmark is again basically unchanged at 263,000 jobs per month needed going forward. This number has largely been stable for the last three months. Likewise, to get below a more modest 8.5 percent unemployment by Election Day 2012 would require the creation of 203,000 jobs on a monthly basis going forward, again basically unchanged from 215,000 going into today’s report.
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How is it possible to say that you needed 270,000 new jobs per month to get to 8%, and then you have a month with 100K net new jobs, and the number needed to get to 8% goes DOWN ?
Mathematically not possible.
I was thinking the same thing. I think it is that unemployment is actually calculated from the household survey, and that survey had better numbers than this published payroll number.
I also heard earlier on FOX, I believe it was Stuart Varney reporting, that 45K of those ‘new’ jobs were Verizon workers returning from the picket line. It was also mentioned that while they were out that the strikers were counted as unemployed and they collected unemployment benefits!
Is that for real? People can voluntarily walk off the job and collect government benefits? No wonder they have no incentive to work things out rather than strike. Outrageous!