The Enterprise Blog

Archive for September, 2011

James DeLong

Elizabeth Warren’s Social Contract

By James DeLong

September 30, 2011, 5:00 pm

In the video of Elizabeth Warren arguing that a businessman who builds a factory should be happy to pay taxes as part of the social contract, the interesting thing is her examples of the services for which he should be grateful—roads to transport goods; education of workers; protection from predators.

This sounds like a libertarian state to me. Warren, who is running for Senate in Massachusetts, did not tell the factory builder to subsidize ACORN so it can picket him/her, or to pay to extend unemployment benefits so people do not have to work in the factory, or to subsidize NRDC lawyers to prevent the permits needed to operate. She did not say: “The social contract requires you to turn money over to me to spend on whatever causes I think worthy.” While true libertarians might give her an argument on roads and education, they would be pretty happy with her state.

A comment from Pietro Poggi-Corradini (via Don Boudreaux) makes another crucial point, which is that the idea of society as a complex and interdependent web is denied by no one in the conservative camp. We just think it is best coordinated by markets rather than by Warren and her friends. Indeed, that is the point of markets, to keep it out of her hands and maintain efficiency so as to make everyone better off. As Poggi-Corradini says:

The real scandal is not that job-creators in the society explore gains from trade and engage in positive-sum games with the rest of us, leading to win-win enterprises that create wealth for society as whole. The real scandal is how cronies are able to divert government’s largesse in both money and regulatory privilege towards their narrow self-interest.

And in case you missed it, here is the logical extension of her position.

How to Create More Jobs in South Asia: Less Government

By Julissa Milligan

September 30, 2011, 4:54 pm

A recent World Bank report on South Asia finds that the most significant constraints to business growth in South Asia are poor government policies. Of the top 15 “severe” constraints surveyed firms listed, eight involved dealing with the government. Political instability topped the list, followed by corruption, tax administration, customs laws, government policy uncertainty, macro instability, the courts system, and labor regulations. The World Bank estimates that labor regulations alone cost India 2.8 million new jobs between 1997 and 2007.

Policy-related constraints were more severe for firms operating in the formal sector and for those in urban areas. This comes as no surprise; the informal sector operates outside of government regulation, and institutional capacity to enforce laws in the rural areas is much lower. However, policies not conducive to business growth are particularly harmful in formal, urban employment because these sectors provide the best jobs. The Bank found that jobs in the formal sector lead to the greatest increase in productivity and the biggest gains in poverty reduction. Moreover, jobs in urban areas are growing more quickly than jobs in rural areas and employment growth in urban areas is more likely to involve the switch from farm to more productive non-farm labor.

Over the past ten years, South Asia created an average of 800,000 new jobs per month and absorbed a growing labor force at increasing productivity levels. However, with the working-age population burgeoning, the region must accommodate 1 million to 1.2 million new entrants per month over the next two decades at rising productivity levels to maintain high levels of growth and a strong poverty reduction rate, according to the World Bank—a 25 to 50 percent increase over current job creation levels. Addressing the damaging constraints the region’s governments place on businesses is a necessary first step.

Healthcare and Public Opinion: On Wednesday, the Obama administration asked the Supreme Court to rule on the constitutionality of its new healthcare law. Public opinion, which appears to be figuring more heavily in recent Court decisions, is divided on the bill. An early September poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation finds 41 percent favoring the law, with 43 percent opposed. The mid-September CBS/New York Times poll found that 40 percent wanted to let the law stand while 47 percent wanted to repeal it. Of those who answered “repeal,” 30 percent wanted to repeal it all, and 17 percent to repeal certain parts. Nearly all poll questions that asked about the individual mandate show more opposition than support.

The Tax Revolt Lives: Prop 13 in California: By more than two-to-one (63 to 29 percent), registered voters in California say they would vote for a measure like Prop. 13 if it were up for a vote today. In 1978, Californians voted for the measure (65 to 35 percent) which reduced local property taxes and limited the amount by which they could be increased. In the new poll, Californians also rejected taxing business and commercial property owners at a higher rate “as a way for local governments to raise additional revenues.”

Regulation Reactions: Half of those surveyed told Gallup that there is too much regulation of business and industry, the highest response since the surveyors first asked this question in 2001. The response has risen steadily since President Obama took office, when 38 percent said there was too much. In the new question, asked in early September, 24 percent said there was too little, and 23 percent about the right amount.

Entitlement Reform: A Quinnipiac University poll released last week put in sharp terms the political challenge that would-be entitlement reformers face in Florida. Two-thirds of voters—including 73 percent of Independents and 55 percent of Republicans—said they were against reducing benefits for future retirees. Fifty-two percent opposed raising the retirement age. Fifty-eight percent disagreed with the statement that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme.

Election Fever: Fox asked Americans this week how interested they were in the 2012 election. Thirty-two percent said they were extremely interested, 33 percent very interested, 27 percent somewhat interested, and 7 percent are not at all interested. The current level of interest mirrors interest in the fall of 2007. In October 2007, 30 percent were extremely interested, 37 percent were very interested, 26 percent were somewhat interested, and 6 percent were not at all interested.

Sun Power: In a new Fox News poll, Americans were evenly divided (46 percent to 46 percent) on whether the government’s loan to Solyndra was based on unethical behavior or was a good faith loan that went bad. When asked about the Obama administration’s attempts to create “green jobs,” 19 percent said such efforts have helped the economy, 22 percent hurt the economy, and 56 percent said they haven’t made much difference either way. In the poll, only 3 percent of Republicans said such efforts have helped.

U.S. TV networks are on high alert for a potential Chris Christie presidential announcement—yea or nay—on Monday. But the New Jersey governor may not be the only Republican mulling a late entry into the presidential race. Tell me what you know, Reuters:

Mike Huckabee has been approached by Republican and conservative activists unhappy with the current crop of presidential hopefuls and he is considering entering the fray, two sources who have spoken with Huckabee told Reuters.

But the conservative Huckabee, who appeals to evangelical Christians and is seen as an effective campaigner, is taking another look at jumping in, said the two sources, who are close to Huckabee. They spoke to Reuters on the condition of anonymity.

“He is entertaining the request for conversations about it,” one of the sources said. “I do not think it is a complete 100 percent ‘I’m reconsidering’ but he hasn’t shut the door on it.”

One of the sources said Huckabee was urged to enter after the recent stumbles of Texas Governor Rick Perry, who appeals to a similar right wing of the Republican party.

This wouldn’t surprise me, not with the GOP race in such a state of flux. And at the same time, the economic backdrop is looking worse and worse for an Obama reelection. Not only is the economy growing at stall speed, but a potential financial crisis in Europe and a hard landing in China could sink the global economy in 2012. As it is, Obama’s approval ratings look like this, according to Gallup:

Republican presidential hopefuls who sit this one out may be making the same mistake as Dems in 1992 who thought George H. W. Bush unbeatable.

Michael Mazza

Baby Steps Towards an Asian NATO

By Michael Mazza

September 30, 2011, 11:12 am

In our recent report on an Asian alliance structure for the 21st century—principally authored by my colleague Dan Blumenthal—we argued that in order to balance against China’s rising power, the United States should work towards a more tightly knit grouping of allies in Asia. We attempted to preempt the conventional counter-argument—that “the allies would never choose sides between the United States and China”—by pointing to the military modernization that is happening across the board in Asia: countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia are all fielding new, more modern capabilities in response to China’s own build-up. As we wrote, it looks to us as if “the allies have made a choice without being asked: they are balancing against China’s power.”

Writing for Foreign Policy, James Traub took issue with this conclusion:

The “Asian Alliances” report warns that “Asia’s future demands nothing less” than a new “shared strategic concept.” The web of Cold War alliances should give way to a military partnership among the United States, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia, and others that would require a major increase in military spending and in military and intelligence cooperation. “[A]ny would-be aggressor” would be made to understand “that targeting one ally means invoking the ire of the rest.” It’s hard to believe that these states would agree to join such an explicitly anti-Chinese coalition. There’s also the danger that China would react by concluding that time was no longer on its side, thus turning the coalition into a devastatingly self-fulfilling prophecy.

While Traub’s concern is a reasonable one, evidence suggests that such a coalition is slowly beginning to form, even without direct U.S. participation. Today’s Wall Street Journal reports on a recent meeting of Japanese and Southeast Asian defense officials:

The relationship between Japan and the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has “matured from dialogues to one where Japan plays a more specific cooperative role” on a range of regional security issues, Japanese Vice Minister of Defense Kimito Nakae said Thursday in Tokyo, the day after meeting with senior defense officials from the 10 Asean nations.

Mr. Nakae was speaking at the opening of a seminar on common security issues held the day after the annual defense meeting. Attended by representatives of Japan and Asean countries … the seminar this year prominently featured maritime issues…

Bolstering the possibility of establishing a wider multilateral strategic framework, Mr. Nakae said resolving the maritime problem requires stronger cooperation from Japan, the U.S., and others.

China’s growing naval confidence was the primary subject discussed by a panel of regional security experts during the session on “efforts to strengthen maritime security in the region.”…

Earlier this week, Japan and the Philippines tightened military and security ties, elevating the bilateral relationship to a “strategic partnership” in a joint statement signed by Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Philippine President Benigno Aquino III in Tokyo.

In short, countries in Asia find themselves more and more worried about China’s rise and its increasingly aggressive behavior. They are beginning to coordinate their efforts to maintain peace in the region—and, notably, doing so without China’s participation, which they probably believe would be counter-productive.

This is no Asian NATO, not even close. But America’s friends in the region are taking baby steps in that direction.

Katherine Zimmerman: “Killing Anwar al Awlaki
Roger F. Noriega: “U.S. Must Prepare for a World Without Hugo Chávez
Jonah Goldberg: “‘Centrists’ Are Abandoning Ship

USA Today reports that “retirement programs for former federal workers—civilian and military—are growing so fast they now face a multitrillion-dollar shortfall nearly as big as Social Security’s.” USA Today’s figures include both pension and retiree health costs and are inclusive of military programs, so it is a broad figure. Nevertheless, it raises an interesting question: how did retirement costs for a small segment of the population grow to rival Social Security, a program designed to cover nearly all Americans? One big reason is that federal pension benefits are simply very generous relative to typical private sector plans.

How generous? To check, I took a stylized worker and ran his annual salary through both the federal pension programs and a typical plan offered to private sector employees to see the difference in how much they would end up with at retirement. Since federal workers receive higher salaries than the average private sector worker (more on that here) I assumed the employee earned 150 percent of the average wage each year; that would put his earnings this year at a bit over $60,000. I assumed he entered the workforce at age 21 and worked until age 65; in reality, most people take some time out of the workforce and most federal employees have held other jobs, but for these purposes that doesn’t matter too much.

Most current federal employees are covered by two pension plans: a defined benefit (DB) program known as the Federal Employees Retirement System (FERS) and a defined contribution (DC) program called the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP). For a federal employee who retires at age 62 or older and has 20 or more years of service, his basic FERS benefit will equal 1.1 percent of his highest 3 years of average earnings, multiplied by his years of service. For FERS, most federal employees contribute 0.85 percent of pay, with the remaining costs covered by the government. The Thrift Savings Plan functions similarly to a private sector 401(k) plan. Federal employers contribute 1 percent of worker wages to the TSP regardless of whether individuals participate. In addition, the federal government matches employee contributions $1.00 per $1.00 for the first 3 percent of earnings contributed and $.50 per $1.00 for the next 2 percent of earnings. A federal employee contributing 5 percent of earnings to the TSP would receive a total employer contribution of 5 percent of earnings. Most current federal employees also participate in the Social Security program.

In the private sector, a typical pension plan today is a defined contribution 401(k) program, which is generally funded with a combination of worker contributions and employer matches. The most common matching formula is $.50 per $1.00 of contributions, up to the first 6 percent of pay. Around one-third of employers offering matching 401(k) plans use this approach, so we’ll follow it here. DB plans still exist in the private sector, but they’re shrinking fast: only 13 of the Fortune 100 companies now offer a traditional DB plan to newly hired employees. Some offer so-called “hybrid plans”—which are themselves shrinking—while the remainder offer 401(k) plans.

For both 401(k)s and the TSP, we need to make the risk of the benefits they offer comparable to the guaranteed benefits from a defined benefit plan; otherwise, investments in riskier assets like stocks will seem like “free money.” To do that, I follow the Congressional Budget Office’s approach of assuming that DC plans invest in government bonds, which I assume to have a 4 percent yield. That’s higher than the roughly 2.5 percent Treasury securities are currently paying but lower than the historical average, so you can adjust up or down as you see fit. Once people retire, I convert their DC accounts to a joint and survivor annuity using rates published by the TSP. For both workers, I assume they contribute enough to receive the maximum employer match to their DC account; but in comparing benefits I use only those generated by the employer match, not from the worker’s own contributions.

In both federal and private sector employment the worker would receive the same annual Social Security benefit of around $21,656. At retirement, the worker’s highest three years of earnings average at $60,368; with an assumed 44 years of service and a 1.1 percent replacement factor, that generates an annual FERS pension of $29,218. In addition, the annuitized value of the employer match to the TSP generates another $6,960 in annual benefits, for a total retirement income of $57,834. In addition, the federal employee would have whatever income his own TSP contributions generated.

The private sector worker would have a Social Security benefit of around $21,656, plus an annuity payment drawn from his employer’s 401(k) contributions of around $4,175 per year. The total retirement income would be around $25,832, plus whatever he received through his own 401(k) contributions. To make things simple, $25,832/$57,834 = around 45 percent, so the private sector worker clearly is receiving far less.

Now, we can haggle about some of these assumptions. Maybe private sector workers who are comparable to federal workers in terms of education or other skills receive more generous pensions. But even if we assume that the employer matches 6 percent of pay rather than the more typical 3 percent, that brings the private pension benefit up to only 51 percent of the federal level. And bear in mind that these percentage differences are reduced by the inclusion of Social Security; if I looked only at employer-provided pension benefits, the private benefit would be only around one-tenth the federal level.

Put it this way: federal employees have a more generous defined contribution pension than most private sector workers, and on top of this they have a defined benefit plan for which they pay less than 1 percent of salaries. State and local workers who participate in Social Security usually have more generous DB plans (a replacement factor of around 1.9 percent of final earnings versus 1 or 1.1 percent for federal employees, according to the Public Plans Database), but they pay far more for their benefits: almost 5 percent of pay versus less than 1 percent for federal employees.

In addition, federal employees are also eligible for retiree health coverage, which is very valuable for early retirees but which in the private sector is shrinking even faster than DB pensions. Based on CBO figures, Jason Richwine and I estimated that eligibility for retiree health coverage is worth around an extra 6 percent of pay for federal workers.

In simple terms, the federal employment package is a great deal for federal employees, and as a former federal employee I was happy to get it. But if you wonder why costs are so high, now you know.

The killing of al Qaeda leader Anwar al Awlaki in Yemen was a good and important step forward in the war against terrorists.  Combined with the killing of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan and the subsequent killings of other al Qaeda leaders there, it deals a blow to the movement. The death of Awlaki is particularly important because it weakens al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which is emerging as the most effective and dangerous al Qaeda franchise with global aims.

We must not, however, see in these killings a strategy for dismantling and defeating al Qaeda and preventing it from re-establishing itself—the president’s apt exposition of our overall aims in this conflict.

Senior-most leadership is important in this terrorist franchise network, make no mistake. The succession from Bin Laden to Ayman al Zawahiri caused turmoil within al Qaeda and will probably have long-term effects on the shape and development of that movement. Awlaki’s death will likely have somewhat less of an impact on AQAP, since he was neither its founder nor its principal leader, although his spiritual and recruiting functions will be difficult for the group to replace.

But replace it they will if attacks against them are confined to strikes against the most high-profile and senior-most leadership. A number of al Qaeda franchises and fellow-traveller movements have gone through successful leadership transitions. U.S. forces killed al Qaeda in Iraq founder and leader Abu Musab al Zarqawi in June 2006. He was rapidly replaced by a deputy, Abu Ayyub al Masri, who led the organization into an even more lethal and effective strategy aimed at fomenting sectarian civil war in Iraq in 2006, at which he nearly succeeded. The Haqqani insurgent network has seen the leadership torch passed from its founder and patriarch, Jalaluddin Haqqani, to his son Sirajuddin, and the lethality and effectiveness of that group increased as well. The killing of Tehrik-e Taliban-e Pakistan founder and leader Beitullah Mehsud—who was responsible for the assassination of Benazir Bhutto—has had a more significant effect on that group, which has splintered under the pressure of his death, limited Pakistani operations, and resumed the tribal infighting that Beitullah Mehsud had worked hard to overcome.

The splinters, however, continue to fight both the U.S. and Pakistan, and that group is far from defeated.

The effect of Zawahiri’s succession to the leadership mantle of the core al Qaeda group remains to be seen, but that is the exception that proves the rule. The U.S. and Pakistan have been aggressively and effectively targeting senior- and mid-level leadership of the core al Qaeda group for a decade.

We have removed not only the founder and leader, but numerous operational commanders, facilitators, trainers, and others. In the case of operational commanders, we have killed successors to the successors many times.

Zawahiri thus takes control over a group that has been severely degraded by constant pressure against leadership at all levels, not just the top. His group, moreover, does not control territory within Pakistan any more, leading either a comfortable but hidden existence as bin Laden did, or a more flitting and migratory existence as most of the facilitators do. All of that pressure has been essential to reducing the effectiveness of the core al Qaeda group to its current level, and the killing of bin Laden, important though it was, was just another piece of a robust strategy that denied al Qaeda Central concentrated safe-havens and continually disrupted the network’s leadership at all levels. It is also worth noting that Pakistan has generally been very supportive of U.S. efforts directly focused against al Qaeda, debates over ISI knowledge or ignorance of bin Laden’s hideaway in Abbottabad notwithstanding.

The U.S. is pursuing no such strategy against AQAP.  The group currently has safe-haven within Yemen, and the chaos surrounding the spread of the Arab Spring to Sana’a has allowed it to expand that safe haven. Neither American nor Yemeni forces are seriously challenging the major support areas that AQAP has already established—the fighting in Southern Yemen against AQAP is aimed at limiting its expansion rather than reducing its base. We have not been able to muster the same kind of top-to-bottom pressure on AQAP through targeted strikes, moreover, as we have conducted against al Qaeda central.

We don’t have the bases or intelligence needed to do so in a theater with virtually no U.S. presence and very limited cooperation from local security forces. The prospects for developing that kind of infrastructure in Yemen are very poor.

The notion that the targeted killings of a handful of key leaders of al Qaeda franchises around the world will end the terror threat to the U.S. cheaply, quickly, and efficiently is seductive but wrong. We have far too much evidence to show that committed terrorist organizations can and do replace leaders faster than we can kill them, and that the replacements can lead the movements as well or sometimes better than their deceased predecessors. It takes the kind of sustained, high-tempo, focused operations we have directed against the core al Qaeda group to reduce the threat of such an enemy significantly, but we do not have the capabilities ourselves or the capable partners in Yemen, Somalia, and elsewhere to repeat that exercise.

Killings of high-profile terrorist leaders are important both symbolically and practically. President Obama and his team are to be congratulated on their recent successes, and may they continue. But we must not confuse those successes with a strategy, or allow these news-grabbing positive events to conceal the reality that al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula remains a virulent organization that will continue to threaten the U.S. directly and indirectly until and unless we can develop, articulate, and implement a more comprehensive strategy to attack and defeat that network than we have yet done.

More on Anwar al-Awlaki at AEI’s Critical Threats Project

I highly recommend the article published today in South Africa’s Business Day by George Pieler.

In it he explains how the malaria community has decided to get in bed with the notorious, illegitimate, despotic leader of Equatorial Guinea. I know malaria funds are under pressure due to the economic situation, but providing good public relations to President Obiang in return for funds is not the solution.

The key to accounting legerdemain, whether you’re running a business or a government, is keeping the bad stuff off the books. AEI’s Andrew Biggs notes the following:

On paper, the Congressional Budget Office reports that in 2010, the federal government spent $3.456 trillion, an amount that is equal to 23.8 percent of gross domestic product. That’s one-quarter higher than the historical norm of around 19 percent of GDP.

But direct spending isn’t the only spending Washington does. As Lori Montgomery reports in the Washington Post, last year the federal government spent an additional $1.08 trillion on tax expenditures, which are tax breaks that for all intents and purposes are spending. … That $1.08 trillion in tax expenditures is 24 percent of all federal spending, and is all off the books, allowing a much bigger government than official statistics tell—and much bigger than people might be willing to tolerate if they knew.

Moreover, according to the Congressional Research Service, tax expenditures have grown by about 24 percent relative to the size of the economy since 1974, from 5.8 percent of GDP to 7.2 percent. So not only do tax expenditures add to overall government spending, they’re adding more today than they did 37 years ago.

People, this is why you can’t simply put a hard cap on spending without also cutting tax expenditures. If you only do the former, Congress will start hiding spending in the tax code.

Paul Krugman once wrote a column called “Fifty Herbert Hoovers,” in which he blasted state governors for cutting spending during a recession. “No modern American president would repeat the fiscal mistake of 1932, in which the federal government tried to balance its budget in the face of a severe recession,” Krugman wrote. John Judis, in his cover story for The New Republic, recounts what he believes is a gotcha moment on the campaign trail with Mitt Romney in which he said to the candidate:

I want to ask you something about history. You know, when Herbert Hoover had to face a financial crisis and then unemployment, his strategy was to balance the budget and cut spending, and that made things worse. When Roosevelt came in, unemployment was twenty-five and went to fourteen percent by 1937. With deficits. Aren’t you repeating the Hoover mistake?

But as Tim Taylor points out, the only “Hoover mistake” being repeated is by folks like Krugman and Judis who apparently aren’t aware of what Hoover did while in office:

Hoover’s budget strategy over his term of office was not to balance the budget. The budget ran a small deficit of 0.6 percent of GDP in 1931, followed by a much larger deficits of 4.0 percent of GDP in 1932 and 4.5 percent of GDP in fiscal year 1933 (which, as Judis points out at a different point in his discussion, started in June 1932 and was thus mostly completed before Roosevelt took office in 1933).

Taylor puts the matter plainly:

Hoover did not cut spending. In nominal terms, federal spending went from $3.3 billion (!) in 1930 to $4.6 billion in 1933. Given price deflation during that time, the real increase in government spending would have been larger. With the economy declining in size, federal outlays more than doubled from 3.4 percent of GDP in 1930 to 8.0 percent of GDP in fiscal year 1933…

Because of this pattern, it would be hard to find an economic historian to argue that fiscal tightness was a significant factor in worsening the Great Depression from 1929 to 1932.

So, in recent days, I’ve been arguing over whether, as the political Left claims, the political Right is anti-science. Needless to say, commentators of the Left disagree with me. Responses ranged from name-calling and indignation (which are fairly common), to the Left’s new answer to charges of hypocrisy, which is to declare all criticism to be “false equivalencies.” Apparently, false equivalencies are like Hebrew writing, traveling only from Right to Left.

But what I find most amusing are the claims that I’m “anti-science” when the subjects under discussion are rarely about actual science. It makes me wonder how many of the people slinging the “anti-science” charge have actually ever “done science,” of the sort where you design an experiment, carry it out, validate your findings with repetitive studies, document the whole thing, and publish your findings to a journal or for a higher-degree dissertation.

I’ve done a bit of that, but I’m guessing few of my critics have, since they seem to think that science is some kind of hammer with which you beat someone who disagrees with you on just about anything. It reminds me a bit of Vizzini in the Princess Bride, who keeps referring to things he dislikes as “inconceivable,” only to have it pointed out that the word doesn’t mean what he thinks it means.

According to the Left, you’re “anti-science” if:

1.    You disagree with some bit of methodology used in a scientific study that is invoked in any public policy discussion;

2.    You disagree with an interpretation someone made from the data their research generated;

3.    You disagree with the public policy response that the scientist, or some government bureaucrat (who often has no training in public policy development at all) proposes based on his/her research findings;

4.    You disagree with the statistical, economic, regulatory, or policy analysis used to justify a policy proposal that was, at some time, connected in some way with some bit of scientific research;

5.    You dispute in any way that “peer review” might not be a guarantor of absolute truth; or

6.    You distinguish between the “hard science” of empirical research and the “soft science” of computer modeling, and refuse to countenance that the latter has the utility of the former.

Hence, though I am a Reconstructionist Jew and a virtue-loving libertarian; though I spent about 16 years in college studying biology and environmental science; though I’ve testified in favor of teaching both evolution and climate science in public schools; though I’ve written a textbook on climate change that was given high marks by the National Science Teacher’s Association; though I was selected to serve as an expert reviewer of two reports from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; though I’ve authored several encyclopedia chapters supporting the validity of the greenhouse effect and the potential for climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions; and though I’ve written well over 100 articles all accepting the premise that greenhouse gases can retain heat in the atmosphere; somehow, because I dare to exercise my own discretion in evaluating what science might tell us about issues that I’ve formally studied, and because I dare criticize the preferred public policies of the Left, I am some sort of Christian fundamentalist anti-scientist.

“You’re anti-science!” I don’t think that phrase means what they think it means.

A bit of good U.S. economic news and some not-terrible financial news from the EU today may slow the steep descent in copper prices, down some 30 percent since February. That drop is worrisome since copper is considered an economic and stock market bellwether given all its industrial uses. Economist Mike Darda of MKM Partners thinks a slowdown in China may be also be a factor:

It looks like some kind of liquidity squeeze is under way in China, as the China EMBI spreads (which have been under increasing strain all year) have shot up to 270 bps, basically the highest level since the fall of 2008 and the summer of 1998, respectively. The first period corresponds to the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the second to the Russian debt default. With the eurozone likely headed for recession and China likely in the early innings of a sharp slowdown, we continue to take a cautious view of global growth and recommend a defensive investment posture for the intermediate term.

Remember that when the U.S. economy grows at a pace of 2 percent or less, there is at least a 50 percent chance of recession. Now toss in a EU recession and problems in the Chinese Growth Machine, and it’s easy to see how 2012 might be pretty miserable.

Liberal economic commentators such as Paul Krugman and Brad DeLong are positively gobsmacked by a new study from the Economic Policy Institute. It purports to show that business uncertainty is, in fact, not slowing the U.S. economic “recovery.” The gist from EPI:

An examination of current economic trends, and especially what employers are doing in terms of hiring and investment, debunks this story about regulatory uncertainty as the cause of our dismal job growth. An examination of what employers and their economists are saying again and again in private surveys (cited later in this paper) makes it clear that what businesses actually identify as their challenges does not fit this story either. In other words, what the heavily politicized trade associations in Washington (like the Chamber) are saying does not correspond to the real challenges facing both large and small businesses, even as they themselves perceive them.

EPI points out, for instance, that a recent survey of small businesses found “poor sales” to be their single-most commonly cited problem. So time for Uncle Sugar to borrow/spend more money pumping up consumer demand, right? Maybe not. While it’s true that 25 percent blamed “poor sales,” 37 percent blamed either regulations (19 percent) or taxes (18 percent.)

Another piece of EPI evidence: Private sector employment is up 1.1 percent during the 25 months of this recovery vs. a 0.6 percent drop during the “jobless” recovery following the 2001 recession. But go ahead and contrast the Obama recovery, instead, to the Reagan recovery where private sector jobs grew 9.9 percent during its first two years. One difference then: taxes and regulation were on a pro-growth trajectory—unlike today. (EPI credits Fed easing rather than Reaganomics.)

Maybe EPI should run its own survey and ask entrepreneurs whether they would like to operate in an economy where government spending was running at 28 percent of GDP, revenues 24 percent, and big budget deficits extended as far as the eye could see. That is, by the way, exactly the fiscal scenario EPI recently concocted.

I’m pretty certain of how business would answer.

John R. Bolton and Dan Blumenthal: If the Senate ratifies it, China will have its best weapon yet to limit US action in Asia. “Time to Kill the Law of the Sea Treaty—Again
Michael Barone: “Jamie Dimon Switches Sides
Dan Blumenthal: Taipei can deter China with a strategy of access denial around the island and guerrilla warfare on land. “Rethinking Taiwan’s Defense
Frederick M. Hess: “Old School: College’s Most Important Trend Is the Rise of the Adult Student
Michael Auslin: “The Bleak Future of Sino-Japanese Relations
Michael Auslin: “Guns, Butter, and Global Stability
Will Fulton: “After the Arab Spring: Iran’s Foreign Relations in the Middle East
Katherine Zimmerman: “Yemen Crisis Situation Reports: Update 78

Kenneth P. Green

The Right Isn’t Anti-Science

By Kenneth P. Green

September 28, 2011, 4:57 pm

Last Friday, I pointed out that claims that the political Right is anti-science are exaggerated, selective, and hypocritical. I argued that, even acknowledging science blind spots on the right, when you look at the gyrations of environmental NGOs and agencies, the political Left is far more anti-science than the Right.

My post spread modestly around the blogosphere, here, and here, and elicited responses from both Chris Mooney and environmental journalist/blogger Keith Kloor. Aside from the uninspired personal attacks Mooney seems to find irresistible, the responses to my argument come down to five counter-arguments:

1) We of the Left police ourselves effectively.

2) We all have our nuts, but Right-nuts are nuttier than Left-nuts.

3) Left-nuts are just “out there,” they aren’t really associated with Leftist political parties.

4) Where there’s smoke, there’s fire! Right-wing anti-science dominates the news so it must be true that they’re more anti-science.

5) Don’t argue with us, just internalize our critique and be ashamed.

Let’s take the first one. Mooney says: “On the left, we eat alive our own allies when they make false claims. That’s precisely what happened on vaccines and autism.”

This is actually comedy-club material when you consider that the Left still worships at the altars of Rachel Carson, Paul Ehrlich, Al Gore, and David Suzuki, who have declared the End of Days virtually every day for 40 years now. White House Science Advisor John Holdren is infamous for his extreme doomsday views and solutions, while Gore, who has a climate-footprint larger than some entire countries, just held a Climaggedon Telethon and still gets around $150K per speech from Left-leaning audiences pining for his non-existent presidency.

Now, to the second argument, that Right-leaning anti-science people are more dangerous than those on the left. Mooney says: “There is no force in American politics generating anywhere near so much unreality, in science or in other spheres, as this one. It is not just evolution, or the age of the Earth, as Green seems to think. When it comes to science, it is also anything having anything to do with abortion, reproductive health, and sexuality.” In another post, Mooney says “But it [science-abuse on the left] has relatively little mainstream influence today—and can hardly compare with the sweeping denial of huge bodies of knowledge (e.g., all climate science, all evolutionary science) that we see on the right.”

As I already wrote, I know of virtually nobody on the right who denies the core of climate science (that greenhouse gases trap heat in the atmosphere). I am also completely unaware of anyone (on the Right or anywhere else) who argues about the science of birth control, how abortion works, or how humans have sex and reproduce. As for denying “all” evolutionary science, does Mooney really think that Right-leaning farmers and animal breeders don’t understand the idea of random mutation and selective retention of traits? I suppose Mooney thinks that Chihuahuas and Irish Wolf Hounds just happened by accident, or that all animal breeders are politically of the Left. Perhaps Mooney is just confused between people who argue over scientific findings and those who argue against the misuse of scientific information in promoting a political cause. There probably are more of the latter on the right, mainly because the Left has wrapped itself in a cloak of scientism to justify social engineering for decades now.

On to the third argument, that only the anti-science types on the right are associated with the major political parties. Mooney says: “But the fringes aren’t very relevant—unless the inmates are running the asylum. That’s what you have today on the right, where Republicans and Tea Partiers overwhelmingly reject mainstream knowledge in key areas and these views are also endorsed by elected representatives and even presidential candidates.”

So let’s see who is running the asylum under Obama. As I pointed out in 2009, Obama’s science team is composed almost exclusively of environmental radicals, and until recently, Carol Browner, Gore’s disciple (and yes, a card-carrying socialist), was part of Obama’s team as well. Her disciple, Lisa Jackson, has unleashed an unprecedented tidal surge of environmental regulations into the teeth of an economic downturn second only to the Great Depression. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu, apparently, has nightmares about hydrocarbons, but was apparently firmly behind funding Solyndra, the solar-cell manufacturer that just ate half-a-billion dollars in tax subsidies. Big checkbooks in the asylum, these days.

The fourth counter-argument is basically an assertion that media coverage of science abuse by the Right is so extensive it must be true. To that argument, I would point out what should be screamingly obvious: Left-leaning journalists have made environmental issues a litmus test, to be asked about in every political discussion. Right-leaning journalists ask left-wing politicians about a giant grab-bag of issues: taxes, the size of government, taxes, gun control, gropeland security, pre-marital sex, taxes, gay marriage, and taxes; asking about DDT, plastics, vaccines, and climate change science are pretty far down on the list of what’s important to them. In other words, the Right seems more interested in climate and evolution skepticism because the Journalist-Left constantly asks and writes about it.

Finally, let’s take the fifth counter-argument, by Kloor: “It’s also understandable that Green and other science-respecting conservatives don’t like this label, but their beef should be more with the direction the Republican party has chosen.”

I have to say, I really love this one. Let’s say that person A criticizes person B for the way she dressed, implying that her clothing style justified her ill-treatment. Let’s speculate that person B might respond by calling her critic a patriarchal oppressor. And let’s further assume that Person A’s response to that objection was “You shouldn’t object to the names we’re calling you, you should just feel shame.” Oh, wait, that happened, and the response was Slut Walks. While I might not agree with the tactics on that one, I certainly agree with their refutation of the idea that one should internalize shame in the face of groundless criticisms. Down with skeptic-shaming!

Chris Mooney and others on the left argue that the Right draws a “false equivalency” when it points out the anti-science shenanigans of the Left, but their arguments are riddled with emotional thinking, logical fallacy, and claims that are so outre they are laugh-out-loud funny. While the Right does have its share of those who reject scientific findings that don’t align with their philosophical orientation, the idea that this is unique to the Right is simplistic and almost entirely political.

For the leaders of enemy regimes, finding useful idiots among the American press corps must be about as hard as shooting fish in a barrel.

•    Asma al-Assad, the wife of murderous Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, was the subject of a glowing feature in Vogue.

•    Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad can count on NBC’s Ann Curry to provide him a propaganda outlet, while the Office of the Supreme Leader often treated Barbara Slavin, formerly of USA Today, as a go-to reporter who would accept uncritically and amplify Iranian propaganda.

•    The New York Times’s Tom Friedman must do the literal equivalent of “getting a room” whenever his writing turns toward praising China’s one-party state and its leaders.

•    Mahmoud Abbas has, of course, basically anyone at The New York Times, where traditional reporting long ago gave way to opinion and analysis under the guise of news.

Now it’s time to add another bullet: Time Magazine has lent its pages, at least virtually, to an interview filled with soft-ball questions and unabashed puffery toward Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s thuggish prime minister. The interview is here. And here are topics the good folks at Time Magazine never found time to cover:

•    By Turkey’s own statistics, the murder rate of women in Turkey has increased 1,400 percent since Erdoğan took over.

•    While Time provided a basis for Erdoğan’s anti-Israel obsession, they never questioned him on:

—His endorsement of an internationally recognized al-Qaeda financier;

—His embrace of crude anti-Semitic tropes;

—His acceptance, less than a year ago, of a human rights prize awarded by and named in honor of Libyan dictator Muammar Qadhafi;

—Turkey’s treatment of the Kurds, its threats to use military force against Cyprus (one-third of which Turkey occupies in contravention of international law), or his embrace of Sudanese president and indicted genocide perpetrator Omar Al-Bashir;

—Erdoğan’s refusal to condemn Hamas terrorism and even acknowledge that Hamas rockets and bombs are terrorism.

•    The imprisonment of several dozen journalists and Turkey’s plummeting rank in freedom indices.

•    Corruption in Erdoğan’s inner cabinet, and perhaps even among his own family.

As for their hagiographic rock star description, if Time’s reporters were more interested in reporting the news rather than simply hanging out with the rich and powerful, they might have noted the absence of any Turkish representatives—but the presence of Jordanians, Egyptians, Libyans, Tunisians, and others—during Morocco’s recent conference on democratic transition and constitutional reform in the Middle East. If some Egyptians perceived Erdoğan to be a rock star, then many other Arabs perceived the Turkish leader to be not the Beatles, but rather Beatlemania, a staged throwback to the past. Then again, the Moroccans and their neighbors were more interested in focusing on the issues at hand rather than cheap anti-Israel populism, so perhaps that was of no interest to Time.

It is a shame that American journalists become so enamored with cults of personality and dictator-chic attitudes that they fail at their main tasks: accurate reporting and incisive interviewing.

Americans Still Crave Bipartisanship

By Jennifer Marsico

September 28, 2011, 2:44 pm

In 2006, AEI scholar Norm Ornstein published The Broken Branch, a detailed examination of what works and what doesn’t in Congress. In the latest discussion of what’s wrong in Washington, USA Today’s chief political correspondent Susan Page quotes Ornstein as she delves into American dissatisfaction with “broken government.” In the front page story, Page reports that according to a new Gallup poll, Americans are unhappy with how the country is being governed by a ratio of 4-1.

Additionally, a new CNN/Opinion Research poll shows that an increasing percentage of Americans are distrustful of government. In September 2011, 77 percent said they could trust the government to do what is right “only some of the time”—66 percent gave that response a year ago. And this skepticism is shared among rich and poor, young and old, white and black. Even among non-whites—the most trustful group—only 24 percent said they trusted the government to do what is right “most of the time.”

Fixing our broken government will be no easy feat, though. Page points to three potential solutions: changing the way congressional lines are drawn; revising the rules for Senate filibusters; and altering the congressional calendar in order to encourage better relationships between members of opposing parties. Norm Ornstein has written about each of these topics, identifying them as potential reforms to increase a sense of bipartisanship and shared responsibility in government.

Trouble is, there is little chance of any of these suggestions becoming reality, mainly because neither major party has an impetus to alter the status quo. For instance, as Page notes, the Cook Political Report currently rates only 53 of the country’s 435 congressional districts as competitive (that is, in either the lean or toss-up categories). With neither party wanting to give up sure congressional seats, there is little support for a new system of drawing district lines.

Though the idea of bipartisanship may be a pipe dream in Washington, polls indicate that this is what Americans want. In his Reagan Library speech last evening, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said that his state’s divided government has gotten results on a bipartisan basis because of “leadership and compromise.” The idea of bipartisanship is fairly taboo in Washington, but it is still possible.

This week Iran is commemorating the 1980 Iraqi invasion of Iran, which led to eight years of war, a quarter million Iranians killed, a greater number wounded, and an entire generation of Iranians deeply traumatized. The regime in Tehran may venerate the country’s war efforts, but the statements coming out of Iran show just how forgetful the Iranian authorities are. Iraq invaded Iran—even Saddam Hussein formally recognized Iraq’s responsibility in starting the war—but the Iranian leadership also has itself to blame. Because Iran was trying to “export” its revolution abroad, Iran’s Arab neighbors, fearing the Iranian revolution more than Saddam Hussein, supported Iraq throughout the war. This was the price Iran paid for its diplomatic isolation.

The leadership in Tehran does not seem to have learned anything from its mistakes of the past and is repeating every single one of them.

On September 26, Admiral Ali Fadavi, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy commander, said, “Whenever we go to the Gulf of Mexico we will establish direct relations with the United States.” Fadavi’s comments were meant as a provocative response to Washington’s cautious suggestion that Iran and the United States should establish a hotline to avoid incidents in the Persian Gulf.

On September 27, Commander Mohamad-Hassan Mansourian, Islamic Republic of Iran Air Defense Force coordination chief, threatened the United States with terrorism. “With the support of the liberation movements of the world we will begin the defense of the realm from abroad and therefore the United States is not able of attacking Iran,” he warned. Mansourian essentially echoed IRGC Quds Force chief Major General Qassem Suleimani’s statements on May 22. Suleimani said, “Today, Iran’s victory or defeat no longer takes place is Mehran or Khorramshahr. Our boundaries have expanded and we must witness victory in Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria.”

In another provocative remark, Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, Islamic Republic of Iran Navy commander, revealed on September 27 his plans for an Iranian naval presence near U.S. territorial waters: “Just as the global arrogance [the United States] is present near our territorial waters, we, thanks to the soldiers following the line of the guardianship [Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei] will have a forceful presence near the territorial waters of the United States.”

Statements of the Islamic Republic authorities are not disconnected from Iran’s deeds. The Islamic Republic is a destabilizing factor in the Persian Gulf region, which has united the Arab states against Iran. Tehran’s ability to project power into the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic is nonexistent, but its propaganda, which aims to portray Iran as a global power, isolates Iran—just like its failed attempts at “exporting” the revolution isolated Tehran during the Iran-Iraq War.

While Iran is repeating the mistakes of the past, the United States should avoid doing so. Tehran interprets the slightest friendly gestures from the United States (such as establishment of a hotline between Washington and Tehran to avoid incidents) as a sign of weakness, which in turn makes the Iranian leadership even more assertive. The United States should help the Iranian leadership avoid believing its own propaganda regarding Iran’s status as a superpower.

Nick Schulz

Don’t Talk to Chuck, Listen to Chuck

By Nick Schulz

September 28, 2011, 12:51 pm

Charles Schwab has a thoughtful piece in the WSJ today. He makes the critical point that behind every job is a prime mover in the form of an entrepreneur who helped create that job; so to get the jobs machine humming again, policy should encourage entrepreneurial risk-taking. His message to “both parties, Republicans and Democrats alike”:

They need to review every piece of existing legislation and regulation with a clear eye to what impact it will have on business and growth. If something is a job killer, put a moratorium on it. Stop adding to the litany of new laws and regulations until we’ve had time to digest those in place and regain some certainty about the future. Proposed laws and regulations should be put to a simple test: What will this do to encourage businesses and entrepreneurs to invest? What will it do for jobs?

That’s a superb litmus test.  And Congress has several good policy options on its plate, a fact pointed out by Warren Stephens in a recent piece:

Regulatory agencies should be required to study the costs and economic impact, including on job creation, of their rule-making before any rules take effect. Legislation to accomplish this goal has been introduced by Sen. Rob Portman (R., Ohio). His amendments to the Economic Development Revitalization Act of 2011 require regulations by independent agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission to be subject to the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act of 1995, which forced executive branch agencies (such as the Environmental Protection Agency) to identify the costs of their regulations.

The Regulations from the Executive in Need of Scrutiny Act (Reins) introduced by Rep. Geoff Davis (R., Ky.) would require that any proposed rule with an annual economic impact of $100 million or more be sent to Congress for approval. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has estimated that since 1980 federal regulators have written more than 130,000 rules. More than 1,000 of these rules have cost businesses in excess of $100 million just to comply, according to the American Enterprise Institute’s Nick Schulz. The OMB estimates that federal regulation costs the economy over $1.75 trillion each year.

Sen. Mark Warner (D., Va.) has been seeking support for a bill that would require regulators to drop one current rule for each new one adopted. Dubbed the “Pay-As-You-Go Plan,” Mr. Warner’s proposal would offer a solution to regulatory creep, in which new red tape is routinely wrapped by a federal agency around a new rule, creating confusion among American businesses while rewarding bureaucratic ineptitude.

Michael Auslin

China’s Bubble Continues to Inflate

By Michael Auslin

September 28, 2011, 11:50 am

Is China entering a phase of decadence? Despite reports about the slowdown in economic growth, the bubble of consumer spending seems only to be inflating. Exhibit A is a record-setting sale for a bottle of cognac in Shanghai, to a Hong Kong woman for $156,000. Like prices for Chinese art recently, one piece by a living artist going for $10 million, there is a growing frenetic nature to Chinese spending. Whether this presages a crash is for owners of crystal balls, but it certainly seems to ignore history at China’s peril.

John H. Makin: “The Eurozone Crisis and the U.S. Economy: What Has Gone Wrong?
Michael Barone: “Mitch Daniels Dares GOP Candidates to Be Grown-Ups
Jonah Goldberg: Obama has angered America’s silent majority, and his base is not happy with him either. “A Bear of a Problem for Obama
Roger Bate: “Google’s Ad Freedom Wrongly Curtailed
Steven F. Hayward: “This Week’s Applied Hayek, EPA Edition
Nick Schulz: “A Tale of Two Economies
Thomas Donnelly: “Auftrag-static (VI): Dudes, Don’t Study How the Germans Got It Right in WWII, Focus on How the British Got It Wrong
Andrew P. Kelly: Why isn’t there a Consumer Reports, Zillow, or Kelley Blue Book for America’s colleges? “The University Is a Black Hole: The Crisis of Data in College Admissions
Frederick M. Hess: “Needed: A Schools Supe with Grit, Not Glitz
Katherine Zimmerman: “Yemen Crisis Situation Reports: Update 77

If leading from behind is the first rule of the Obama doctrine, then its second defining feature is the disconnect between an adversary’s behavior and its reward. Over the last year, Turkey has sided with Iran on the nuclear issue, held secret air force war games with China without first informing the Pentagon or NATO, threatened to initiate military action against Israel and Cyprus, and made anti-American rhetoric a staple of the Turkish ruling party’s proxy press.

So what is Obama to do? Not only does the White House remain intent on selling Turkey the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, replete with stealth technology which Turkey could leak to its friends and our adversaries, but now, according to Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the White House has approved provision of predators to Turkey. According to a report in the Turkish press:

“We will definitely resolve this problem and definitely make the Anka [Turkey’s own unmanned aerial vehicle prototype] operable,” one procurement official said. “In the future, the Anka definitely will become the most useful asset in fighting terrorism….” As success has been delayed in the Anka program, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced last week in New York, after a meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama on the sidelines of a U.N. gathering, that Washington would provide Turkey with advanced Predator drones. Turkey first asked for both unarmed and armed versions of the Predator nearly three years ago.

So not only is Obama intent on providing classified technology to a country which threatens the use of force against American allies, but it also will provide Turkey with American technology that the Turkish government also wants to produce for its own commercial purposes. What could possibly go wrong here? What next for Obama? Sharing warhead designs with the Iranians?

Back in February I reviewed the Department of Energy’s data on energy subsidies here, noting that “renewables” (wind, solar, biomass, Gilligan’s bicycle, etc) received vastly larger subsidies per unit of energy produced than fossil fuels. A few critics threw a penalty flag because I was using the DOE’s 2007 data, and by golly things have changed since then. Why yes, they have: the subsidies have doubled, according to a brand new report from DOE that looks at energy subsidies in 2010.

Total energy subsidies increased from $17.9 billion to $37.2 billion, an increase of 108 percent over the three-year period. Of the increase, 77 percent was due to the infamous stimulus. And the lion’s share of the increase went to renewables, from $5.1 billion to $14.7 billion.

For some strange reason, though, this DOE report does not break out the amount of subsidy per unit of energy created, as the report on the 2007 data did. DOE does acknowledge that “Relative to their share of total electricity generation, renewables received a large share of direct federal subsidies and support in FY 2010. For example, renewable fuels accounted for 10.3 percent of total generation, while they received 55.3 percent of federal subsidies and support.” (This actually understates the amount of subsidy for wind and solar, as the largest output of “renewable” electricity is from hydropower, which receives negligible subsidy; if hydropower is stripped out, the renewable subsidies will appear even more out of whack.)

Our friends at the Institute for Energy Research decided to reconstruct the subsidy-per-unit of energy relationship using data from the DOE’s Month Energy Review, and the results are displayed in the figure below. As you can see, the subsidy for solar electricity ($775 per megawatt-hour) is so large it can’t be displayed on the chart in the same scale as other sources, or the others would disappear to near oblivion. Keep this in mind the next time you hear someone say that Solyndra failed because we don’t subsidize solar power enough.

Michael Rubin

Yale Loses Its Edge

By Michael Rubin

September 28, 2011, 10:26 am

For decades, residential colleges have both been Yale University’s chief selling point and the feature by which the university differentiates itself from its Ivy League companions and other top tier universities. All freshmen are subdivided randomly into one of 12 colleges, remaining affiliated with it for four years and living there for three or four years. The net effect is that the colleges provide a sense of community—the chief benefit of a small college experience—with the classroom and campus resources of a much larger university. In a society in which identity groups often self-segregate themselves, the residential colleges also enable Yalies to meet a diverse array of people.

While in theory each residential college is equal, over time, they develop different characteristics. Each college is led by a master. Some masters are disinterested: When I was an undergraduate, I was in Davenport College. In my freshman year, the master was a professor of 19th-century Germany and ran the college like a Prussian general. In my subsequent three years, the master was a retired admiral, who, it turned out, was retired not only from the Navy but also from anything which required effort. In contrast, when I was a graduate student, I was for a year a resident graduate affiliate in Pierson College. Harvey Goldblatt, a professor of medieval Slavic literature, was master and quickly catapulted Pierson into the envy of all other colleges: He knew each student not only by name, but also made an effort to interact with everyone. He cheered on the residential college’s intramural sports teams, and even undertook his own alumni endowment to allow, for example, a spring break trip to Italy for most seniors. Behind the scenes, he was involved in administrative issues and stayed on top of everything from employee morale in the dining hall to the length of time scaffolding remained up after work was completed.

Alas, Yale has changed. In the twelve years since I have left New Haven, faculty members tell me that the number of administrators has almost doubled. While Yale University once encouraged autonomy among students to set up organizations, fix problems, and take responsibility for their own decisions, today, an ever-increasing number of deans get involved to regulate all aspects of life and administration. Whereas Yale students could once choose to excel in extracurricular activities or academics, today there is little differentiation: grade inflation and administration intervention has evened the playing field so that a lazy and irresponsible student will, from his or her record, appear equal to one who in the past might have been able to differentiate themselves academically.

The quest for equality and the bolstering of safety nets has not only blurred distinctions amongst students, but also faculty. At some point, administrators—for whom bureaucracy rather than education is a career—decided that it was unfair to have inequality among colleges. After all, if a college master managed to energize both students and alumni, students in other colleges might resent that another master was not up to the job.

Enter President Richard Levin: Replicating what too often happens in liberal society, rather than celebrating success or encouraging competition to keep up, Levin instead sought to encourage mediocrity by “equalizing” the college experience. Alumni who have donated money to their college will now find that their money has been put into a general fund. Perhaps the university will assure donors that their donation did go to the college, but the university—according to multiple faculty members—will simply reduce the budget allotment to the college by the same amount. At the same time, deans regulate what college masters can sponsor and how often: When I was a resident affiliate in Pierson, the college brought in perhaps 50 speakers over the course of an academic year to interact with students, often in intimate settings over dinner. Now, with the university’s embrace of mediocrity, it would be hard to bring in one-fifth that many, because the administration dissuades competition.

Governments and administrators can take two general approaches to governance: They can try to create equality of opportunity, i.e., an even playing field, or they can try to create equality of experience. The first encourages competition and individual liberty, while the second embraces paternalism and mediocrity. Certainly, there is something very wrong at Yale when administrators choose the latter.


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