AMERICAN.COM

Japan’s annual defense white paper (available here) continues the trend of identifying China’s military buildup as the most worrying factor in East Asian relations. This year’s report takes a further rhetorical step by claiming that China’s maritime activities in the East and South China Seas are “overbearing” and potentially destabilizing to broader peace. While the report is getting a lot of attention, it is not that new for Tokyo, which last year codified a switch in its defense strategy to focus on its southwestern islands stretching from Kyushu down to just off Taiwan. These last, the Senkakus, are the focus of a long-running dispute between Japan and China over the resource-rich waters around the islets. Japanese security analysts now openly talk about bolstering Japan’s “southwestern wall” in order to protect vital sea lanes through the East China Sea and into the western Pacific Ocean.

Much like countries in Southeast Asia that have ongoing disputes with China over maritime territories (especially Vietnam and the Philippines), Japan is increasingly bold in sounding the alarm over China’s actions. It is not Beijing’s military buildup, per se, that worries nations in the Indo-Pacific region, but rather China’s assertive behavior the past several years now that it has increased its maritime and air capability to more directly enforce its maritime claims.

Washington has long walked a tightrope in attempting to maintain good working relations with Beijing while assuring allies and partners alike of its willingness to protect broader regional interests. That aim is now becoming harder, as China seems more willing to incur short-term negative publicity in order to shape the actions of smaller states that claim territory China wants to control.

While the danger of open conflict is still small, Japan’s white paper reflects a common sense of uncertainty and insecurity in the Indo-Pacific. This is perhaps the greatest danger facing the region over the next decade or so, as China continues its military buildup and gains the confidence to project power beyond its territorial waters, and smaller nations seek to bolster their own capabilities to protect narrower interests. A fatalistic sense is growing, and with it, an acceptance that relations in Asia will become not only increasingly tense, but militarized over time. Due to its military alliances, the United States will be further drawn into the conflicting webs of distrust and engagement that characterize Asian relations. Asserting its intent to forge closer ties with countries that seek to uphold regional stability and promote the adoption of effective norms of behavior is perhaps America’s best hope of retaining influence and relevance in a rapidly evolving region.