The Enterprise Blog

Archive for August, 2011

Marc Thiessen

Perry’s ‘Pole Tax’

By Marc Thiessen

August 31, 2011, 3:48 pm

In my latest article for the Washington Post, I write about Mitt Romney’s strategy to stop Rick Perry’s surge in the polls. Among the issues that Romney advisers plan to use against Perry is the charge that he raised taxes as governor of Texas. (Perry’s team argues that his 2006 tax reform—necessitated by a court ruling against our school finance system—was a big net tax cut).

No doubt the two sides will battle it out in the coming months. But there is one Perry tax that Team Romney is not likely to discuss during the course of the campaign: the Texas “Pole tax,” which was declared constitutional last Friday.

The Fort Worth Star Telegram reports:

The [Texas] Legislature in 2007 approved, and Governor Rick Perry signed, the law requiring alcohol-serving clubs that offer nude dancing to pay the $5-per-head fee. Teetotaling nude clubs aren’t assessed; neither are bars where the dancers wear “fully opaque clothing.” This is one tax that tax-averse state leaders like: The goal was to help fund sexual assault prevention programs and health insurance for low-income Texans.

A club in Amarillo challenged the law, arguing it infringes on a constitutionally protected form of expression: nude dancing. Two lower courts agreed. But on Friday, the Texas Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the “pole tax.”

“The fee in this case is clearly directed, not at expression in nude dancing, but at the secondary effects of nude dancing when alcohol is being consumed,” Justice Nathan Hecht wrote for the court.

The Associated Press reports that the comptroller’s office has collected about $15 million so far from the pole tax (though not all of the eligible clubs have paid it while the legal challenge has been pending). Somehow, despite this new tax burden imposed by Governor Perry, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reports that “Texas has accounted for 49.9 percent of net new jobs created in the United States” since June 2009—though the Dallas Fed has yet to report on the status of Texas job creation in the nude dancing sector.

• Makin:Does the Fed Need to Ease Even More?
• Noriega:Is Mexico Our Ally or Our Enemy?
• Lachman:It’s Time for Plan B from the IMF
• Barone:Clarence Thomas: Liberal Nightmare on Obamacare
• Schulz:Bioengineering Methuselah
• Goldberg:Seduced by the Cult of Experts
Blumenthal, Hsiao, Mazza, Schriver, and Stokes:Asian Alliances in the 21st Century
• Hayward:Maybe the Sun Has Something to Do with It

Everyone knows the stock market has been jumping around wildly the past several weeks, and so have oil prices. But did you know they were moving so closely together?  The Energy Information Administration put out the chart below.

I have no idea what the very long-term trend looks like, but the historic bull markets of the 1980s and 1990s both occurred amid steadily falling oil prices. Maybe one of our economists will want to dilate this point. Over to you Mark Perry!

Nick Schulz

Death Be Not Proud

By Nick Schulz

August 31, 2011, 8:50 am

In my review of Sonia Arrison’s terrific new book on the revolution in anti-aging technology“100 Plus: How the Coming age of Longevity Will Change Everything, From Careers and Relationships to Family and Faith,” I didn’t get a chance to discuss the fascinating foreword by Peter Thiel. Philosophically rich and provocative, Thiel’s mini-essay on what he calls “The Problem of Death” is alone worth the price of the book (for a view contra Thiel and Arrison I recommend reading Leon Kass here and here).

 

Marc Thiessen

Romney Speaks Up for Defense

By Marc Thiessen

August 30, 2011, 5:05 pm

It has been a persistent question on the campaign trail: what does Mitt Romney believe in? I followed him on the campaign trail in New Hampshire recently, and on one issue in particular he came across as a conviction politician: national defense.

At a time when many Republicans seem all too willing to sacrifice our military strength on the altar of debt reduction, there seems to be little to be gained politically by speaking up for robust defense spending. But that is precisely what Romney did a town hall in Exeter last week. Asked by a New Hampshire voter why we shouldn’t cut military spending to reduce the debt, Romney said:

Military spending, our defense budget, is about one-fifth of federal spending. Right now, of course, we are engaged in two hot conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. I believe we are going to see our troops come home and the cost of those conflicts will come down. So that spending will actually be reduced. But then we have the base budget of the department of defense. And I know, I’m sure there is waste in that budget. I know there’s waste in that budget. And I want to go after that waste. But then the question is: are we going to take that waste out of the defense budget and use [the money] for other social programs? Or are we instead going to strengthen our military? And I believe in strengthening our military. (Applause).

We had 600 ships in the Navy. The Navy did a study that said, you know, we could get by with 313. We could fulfill our missions with 313 ships. Now that decision was made a while ago, and given the resurgence of China with their aircraft carrier, with their submarines, maybe they’d come up with a higher number [today], but let’s use 313. We’re now down in the 280s. We’re headed down to the low 200s if we stay on the current course. Ships are being taken out of service, and the schedule shows we keep going down, down, down. That’s unacceptable to me.

Our Air Force—the size and age of our air fleet is the oldest and smallest it’s been since the 1940s when the Air Force was established. We have men and women in the National Guard, in many respects fulfilling rotation after rotation in battlefields or hot conflicts. I’d like to see us have more full-time members of the service. And I want them to have the equipment they deserve. And I want our veterans to have the care they deserve. (Applause).

And so when I look at all of those features, in my view we should not look to the military as the source of cutting our budget. The waste in the military should be redirected towards modernizing and updating our weapons systems and maintaining the capacity of our boots on the ground—our men and women. Now, my own view is very different than that of Congressman Paul. I believe that a strong American military is the best deterrent of war, is the best ally of peace, the world has ever seen. I want our military to be so strong that no one ever thinks they would want to engage it. That’s the right source for us to be able to guarantee the next generation peace and prosperity. And so I am willing to make the investment of 4 percent of our GDP—that’s one-fifth of federal spending—to keep America’s military strong. That’s my view. (Applause).

It was heartening to see this statement interrupted three times by applause.

These were Romney’s off-the-cuff remarks in a town hall setting. In a prepared speech before the Veterans of Foreign Wars in Texas today, Romney leveled his criticism directly at the debt limit dealt that threatens to gut our defense budget:

The White House proposed cutting military spending by $400 billion over the next twelve years. Then, President Obama agreed to a budget process that could entail cutting defense spending by $850 billion. The incoming Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has called a cut of that magnitude “very high risk.” Defense Secretary Panetta has warned that it could have “devastating effects on our national defense.” And that’s coming from a guy who works for President Obama.

This is the first time in my memory that massive defense cuts were proposed without any reference to the missions that would be foreclosed and the risks to which our country and its men and women in uniform would be exposed …

I will slice billions of dollars in waste and inefficiency and bureaucracy from the defense budget. I will use the money we save for modern ships and planes, and for more troops. And I’ll spend it to ensure that veterans have the care they deserve.

While he focused his fire on President Obama, these words could just as easily be read as a rebuke of congressional Republicans—who drew a line in the sand when it came to tax increases, but went along with the budget deal that threatens to gut our military. There is only one path to peace, Romney reminded them—invoking Ronald Reagan—and that is “peace through strength”:

American strength is the only guarantee of liberty. American strength turned the Cuban missiles around. American strength caused the collapse of the Soviet Union. American strength yanked Saddam Hussein out of his spider hole. With freedom as our cause, strength is our only sure defense.

You can read his full remarks here.

Sadanand Dhume

Miss India Digs AEI

By Sadanand Dhume

August 30, 2011, 12:52 pm

It’s not every day that I’m mentioned in the same breath as a Miss Universe contestant, but the Washington Post and Wall Street Journal blogs both have stories today on an amusing kerfuffle involving Miss India Vasuki Sunkavalli and her apparent agreement with my views on everything from the size of India’s bureaucracy to the importance of India’s position on Syria at the United Nations Security Council.

You can read the Post’s version of the story here, and the Journal’s over here. To which I’ll only add that I wish Ms. Sunkavalli every success in the pageant, and hope that on her return from Brazil she’ll continue to be partial to the right ideas about South Asian politics, economics, and foreign policy.

With Friends Like These: Tehran Criticizes Bashar al-Assad

By Ali Alfoneh and Daniel Vajdic

August 30, 2011, 11:26 am

The Islamic Republic has tried hard to depict the pro-democracy movement in the Middle East and North Africa as an “Islamic Awakening” inspired by Iran’s 1979 revolution. Few were convinced by the propaganda, but Tehran seemed to have the upper hand as long as the Arab Spring swept through countries allied with the West, such as Tunisia, Egypt, and Bahrain. The protest movement in Syria has changed this dynamic, and today the Islamic Republic risks losing a key ally in the region.

The Iranian press has hitherto presented the protest movement in Syria as a “foreign conspiracy” and a “Zionist plot.” Accordingly, the regime in Tehran has dispatched military advisers from the Quds Force (an elite security unit of the Revolutionary Guards charged with external operations) sent surveillance equipment, and injected the Syrian government with much-needed cash to keep the Ba’th regime afloat. The European Union’s impending embargo on Syrian oil, though long overdue, will make Bashar al-Assad’s regime even more reliant on Iranian financial support.

Recently, however, there’s been a noticeable change in Tehran’s rhetoric toward Syria. “The government should answer to the demands of its people, be it Syria, Yemen, or other countries,” Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said this weekend. “The people of these nations have legitimate demands, and the governments should answer these demands as soon as possible.”

Salehi’s acknowledgement of Syrian protesters’ “legitimate demands” represents a drastic shift, which may indicate that the situation is moving in an unfavorable direction for Assad and, therefore, Tehran. His statements reflect Iran’s new approach toward Syria. The Islamic Republic is hedging its bets and is beginning to slowly, subtly, and very grudgingly, court the Syrian opposition—lest it lose all influence in a post-Assad Syria.

Tehran’s new tactics are self-defeating. Statements like Salehi’s will energize the protesters in Syria, who will interpret them as Tehran abandoning its support for Assad. Despite Tehran’s best efforts, however, the Syrian opposition is unlikely to favorably view a regime that has supported Syria’s dictators for the past three decades. Moreover, Tehran’s move will most likely be perceived as an act of betrayal among the ruling elites of Syria and will further demoralize Assad. Mixed signals from Tehran may indeed hasten the Assad regime’s collapse rather than prolong its wretched existence.

Ali Alfoneh is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Daniel Vajdic is a research assistant at the American Enterprise Institute.

Marc A. Thiessen: “Romney’s Plan to Beat Perry
John R. Bolton: “Bring the Lockerbie Bomber to Trial—Before It’s Too Late
Michael Auslin: Yoshihiko Noda takes office at the most crucial time for Japan in half a century. But with lackluster public support, he has his work cut out. “Japan Tries (Yet) Again
Whitney Downs: “NY Court Does its Job by Allowing Public Use of Teacher Data
John R. Bolton: “Obama’s Nuke Policy Leaves Our Allies Feeling Increasingly On Their Own

AEI President Arthur Brooks answers the question from MSNBC’s Matt Miller, “What do we do when huge forces beyond our control shape our destiny?”

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

As the nation’s schools wrestle with strapped budgets and policy makers push schools to do a much better job of serving the millions of students, it’s estimated that 3 million or more illegal immigrants are enrolled in American schools. Apparently, merely trying to gauge the number or location of these students is now enough to get one labeled racist.

Yesterday, the Washington Post devoted its lead Sunday editorial to slamming Alabama’s tough new anti-illegal immigration statute. Titled “Alabama’s immigration travesty,” the editorial charged that the law is “poisonous” and seemingly opposes denying illegal immigrants any privilege enjoyed by citizens and legal residents.

The Washington Post argued, “Perhaps the most obnoxious provision of the law is its requirement that public schools confirm all students’ immigration status and report those who lack proper documents to school officials.” While Alabama officials acknowledged that established law requires them to serve these students, the WaPo opines, “But whom are they kidding? The measure is meant to frighten youngsters and their parents and will have precisely that effect.”

Trying to document the number and nature of the illegal immigrants who are enrolled in Alabama’s schools strikes me as useful information when it comes to debating immigration policy, school spending, service provision, and the rest. The question of how many dollars, teachers, and resources are being consumed by children who are in this country illegally seems to me a perfectly fair and valid question, given that every dollar and every instructional hour devoted to meeting their needs is necessarily denied to a student who is an American citizen or a legal resident. (It’s also noteworthy that the Department of Education’s Office of Civil Rights has just completed a massive effort to collect all kinds of new data on an array of sensitive subjects—without a peep of protest from the Washington Post—such as the number of high school counselors in schools, availability of pre- K and kindergarten programs, districts operating under desegregation orders or plans, and whether districts have written policies prohibiting harassment and bullying on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, or disability.)

It’s reasonable to discuss the impact of these students on schools who are pushed to do more with less. Given their family demographics, it wouldn’t surprise a bit if these children are particularly costly to serve due to their language status and family circumstances (of course we don’t know, because no one has collected this data). If this “frightening” law prods some families that are illegally in the U.S. to voluntarily return to their native lands, that would seem an eminently desirable way to boost the ability of Alabama’s schools to focus on serving schoolchildren who are citizens or legal residents—whatever their race and creed. And the Washington Post regards this as an unquestionably bad thing?

I’ll readily concede there are complex questions of moral philosophy here, and that our commitment to serving children who are in this nation illegally is admirable, in its own way, and perhaps sensible. And many are aware that the courts have required schools to educate every child who shows up, regardless of their legal status. But I find it peculiar to see those who regard illegal immigration as, you know, illegal, summarily pilloried as xenophobic racists. It marks me as a reactionary in education circles, but I find it bizarre that we’ve come to a place where seeking legal ways to perhaps focus more educational resources on American citizens and legal immigrants is immediately suspect.

As the tenth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks approach, it’s no surprise that I, along with other colleagues here in the foreign and defense policy group at the American Enterprise Institute, have been asked by various media outlets to comment on that event and the unfolding of policies since. The most predictable and prevalent question is: “Has the war on terror been won?” To which the only sensible answer is “no, but we are winning.” Responding to these kinds of queries is the bread and butter of policy analysts who work in D.C. think tanks. It can be time consuming but it’s just part of the job.

Far more aggravating has been the number of foreign reporters, both TV and print, who, in interviewing me, want to focus on how damaging 9/11 was to the American psyche—wondering if we aren’t crouching under the table, looking constantly over our shoulder at Arab-looking men and women, willing to throw aside civil liberties and all moral constraints in fighting this war.

What follows is a slightly edited email response by me to one such recent inquiry.

Happy to help out [with the interview] … although I think ‘the psychological consequences of 9/11 for the American psyche, ie the feeling of vulnerability’ is just BS. Americans aren’t that fragile and haven’t in fact been traumatized. Of course folks in D.C. thought the earthquake might have been an attack but not because they are ‘on edge’ but because it was a very large, unexpected bump. And since we don’t get earthquakes of that magnitude here but once a century it was perfectly reasonable for them to assume a bomb of some sort. Truth is, I’ve been in Paris, Jerusalem and London during periods where terrorist attacks were common and I don’t see a dime’s worth of difference in attitudes here than in those places at that time …

In that connection, Pearl Harbor is not ‘a syndrome.’ Surprise attacks are facts of history. And combined with the reality of nuclear weapons, not being caught by surprise was a logical response to how America and NATO postured itself during the Cold War. With 9/11 of course, and the attacks on London and Madrid, we also now know that terrorists can pull off attacks that no longer just kill a few at a time but hundreds, even thousands. So, naturally enough, trying to prevent such ‘surprises’ makes sense—a policy I might add that the French were the first to employ when it comes to terrorism in the ’90s.

Sorry to be so grouchy but this attempt to turn 9/11 and the reaction to it into some dark moment in American history is aggravating. The fact is, we have:  a) successfully avoided new major attacks; b) toppled several tyrannical regimes since; c) and [despite having] been at war for a decade, have had no major changes in the practices of American civil liberties. In other words … by most historical standards, [the decade since the attacks on 9/11 has been] a [strategic] success.”

The California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS), and public pensions across the country, have been pushing back on the idea that they should value their liabilities more conservatively, using methods that economists, financial markets and, more recently, the Congressional Budget Office, have deemed more accurate. Currently, public pensions “discount” their future benefit liabilities using the high 8 percent return they project they’ll receive on their plans’ investments. Financial economists counter that this is wrong, because this 8 percent return is based on a risky investment portfolio while public pension benefits are effectively guaranteed. Financial markets value a liability based on the risk of the liability itself, not of any assets used to fund the liability. Most studies have argued for discount pension liabilities using the risk-free Treasury security rate (currently around 3.1 percent over 20 years, although the studies tend to use older values of around 4 percent). Using the Treasury rate, economists such as Josh Rauh and Robert Novy-Marx have estimated that public pensions face unfunded liabilities not of the $600 billion or so that the pensions acknowledge, but more like $3 trillion. Ouch.

I took a somewhat similar tack in an AEI working paper (forthcoming in Public Budgeting and Finance). Public pensions argue that using the Treasury rate ignores the actual investments they make and the returns they can expect to receive. (It doesn’t, but I’m indulging them.) So I took a different approach, which was based on actual pension investment portfolios but also included the price of the taxpayer guarantee to back up the pension if the investments fell short. The cost of this implicit “put option” is ignored in pension accounting, but when you do calculate it, total unfunded liabilities sum to—lo and behold—around $3 trillion. Maybe Rauh and Novy-Marx were right after all. Pensions continue to squabble over these points, but substantively the argument has pretty much been won (with the important exception of the Government Accounting Standards Board, which can’t seem to make heads or tails of the whole thing).

Recently, though, CalPERS essentially acknowledged my main point: that the ability to turn to taxpayers for additional funds when needed is actually worth something. And that something turns out to be a lot. Steven Greenhut of the Orange County Register reports that some local governments are looking to terminate their pension plans to reduce costs, and CalPERS recently issued new rules on how to handle the liabilities of such plans.

Under those rules, liabilities would no longer be discounted at the 7.75 percent interest rate that CalPERS currently uses. Instead, CalPERS would value them using a lower 3.8 percent discount rate. Why? Because when a plan is terminated, CalPERS would no longer have recourse to the sponsoring government—that is, the taxpayers—to bail out the plan should it need additional funds. This is exactly the argument I made—that the difference between the expected return on risky assets and the riskless return is captured by the taxpayer guarantee in case the investments go south.

CalPERS, of course, claims that this is a special case—but it’s not. CalPERS says that in the case of terminated plans, they must invest more conservatively to be sure that assets and liabilities are more closely matched. This is the investment approach you would take if you wished to “immunize” taxpayers from future benefit liabilities—that is, to ensure that you won’t need to go back to them for more cash. CalPERS follows this approach simply because, in the specific case of terminating plans, they have to. But in terms of the value of public pension liabilities, this approach follows across the board. Guaranteed public pension benefits include the implicit right to go back to the taxpayer for more money when needed. This guarantee is valuable to the pension and expensive to the taxpayer since, as recent history shows, it’s most likely to be accessed in an economic downturn, when the taxpayer is least able to come up with additional funds.

So thank you, CalPERS—you’ve gotten it right at last.

Michael Barone: “Obama, Rivals Duck the Entitlement Crisis
Frederick M. Hess: “UFT President Michael Mulgrew Is Right: Keep the Teacher Data Private
Robert F. Coulam, Roger Feldman, and Bryan E. Dowd: There is a way to fix the Medicare program without raising taxes. “Better Prices—Through Competitive Bidding—Can Help Solve Medicare’s Fiscal Crisis
Gary J. Schmitt: The Chinese challenge to American power. “Friendly Rivals?
Katherine Zimmerman: “Yemen Crisis Situation Reports: Update 60

Last week, Michigan lawmakers took another step to rein in public sector employee spending, passing a bill giving municipalities, local governments, and school districts a choice: cap your employee healthcare benefits, or forfeit 10 percent of your state funding.

School districts must choose to either limit healthcare payouts to $15,000 per family or cap their healthcare contribution at 80 percent of the plan’s total cost. Districts failing to do so will forfeit 10 percent of their state funding. For context’s sake, that would equal a $44 million dollar hit to Detroit Public Schools’ general fund alone.

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Andrew Biggs

Teachers Earn Less for a Reason

By Andrew Biggs

August 26, 2011, 3:55 pm

Mark Perry posts regarding the new AEI Education Outlook by University of Missouri economist Cory Koedel which shows Education to be by far the easiest course of study in most colleges. Mark finds additional evidence from Cornell University to back up Koedel’s claim. Education majors enter college with lower SAT scores than students majoring in other fields but leave college with higher GPAs. Unless something truly magical happens in education schools, we can only conclude that Education is simply a less demanding course of study. As Koedel points out, this lack of rigor undermines rewards to students who work harder, makes it more difficult for schools to distinguish good teaching candidates from poor ones, and may contribute to a professional culture that cares little about standards of quality.

But, as a forthcoming paper that I have co-authored with Jason Richwine will show, the low standards applied in education degrees also complicate the task of determining whether public school teachers are fairly paid. Teachers claim to be underpaid because they receive lower average salaries than private sector workers with similar levels of education. (Our paper shows that, even if this is true, they more than make up the gap through generous benefits, but we’ll ignore that for now.) But note that the control variable here is the level of education — meaning, Bachelor’s degree, Master’s degree, and so on — and not the quality of education nor, more importantly, the ability or productivity of the worker.

In most public-private pay comparisons we can use the level of educational attainment as a proxy for individual ability (For instance, see our paper on federal pay). This isn’t because every college major has the same level of difficulty or that every college provides the same quality of education. It’s because a large number of different college majors are distributed across a large number of different occupations, so given an adequate sample size the inadequacies of education as a proxy for productivity wash out. The fit of the estimate isn’t as tight as if you had some better measure of employees’ ability (meaning, in stat-speak, that the R-squared value of the regression isn’t as high) but the results aren’t biased in one direction or the other.

But when examining teacher pay the problems with educational level don’t wash out: most teachers have degrees in education and most people with degrees in education work as teachers, so if an education degree signals lower ability or a less rigorous education — and Koedel’s paper and other sources indicate that’s the case — then regressions using education as a control variable may falsely show public school teachers to be underpaid.

Put bluntly, public school teachers enter college with below-average SAT scores, major in the easiest undergraduate course of study, take Master’s degrees in education that have no appreciable impact on teaching quality, and then wonder why they’re not as well paid as someone who got a Master’s in chemical engineering. They shouldn’t.

QE3? Not Yet

By Rohan Poojara

August 26, 2011, 3:54 pm

At this year’s Jackson Hole meeting, Bernanke steered clear of laying the groundwork for QE3. Bernanke admitted that the lingering aftershocks from the financial crisis had “acted to slow the natural recovery process,” an issue extensively covered in “After the Fall,” a paper presented by Carmen and Vincent Reinhart at the Jackson Hole conference last year which looked at the experiences surrounding the fifteen worst financial crises in the second half of the twentieth century. The Reinharts’ research found that real GDP growth slows about 1.5 percentage points in the decade after the crisis relative to the one before in crisis countries. Additionally, in ten out of fifteen cases studied, the unemployment rate does not return to its precrisis low for the entire decade after the fall.

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Karlyn Bowman and Andrew Rugg: “Attitudes Towards the War on Terror and the War in Afghanistan: A Ten-Year Review
Kenneth P. Green: “What Drives Gas Prices: Cartels, Speculators, or Supply and Demand?
Julissa Milligan: “As Famine Spreads in Somalia, Ramp Up Troop Numbers to Ensure Food Aid Reaches the Starving
Jonah Goldberg: Conservatism is starting to have an identity-politics problem all its own. “My Rick Perry Problem–and Ours
Daniel Vajdic: “Iran Still Seeking to Acquire Advanced Air Defense System
Katherine Zimmerman: “Yemen Crisis Situation Reports: Update 59

Getting the Economy Going Again

By The Editors

August 26, 2011, 10:16 am

Kevin Hassett on jobs and the economy.

Iran Still Seeking to Acquire Advanced Air Defense System

By Daniel Vajdic

August 26, 2011, 10:14 am

Tehran recently filed suit against Moscow in the International Court of Arbitration for its decision to cancel sale of Russia’s S-300 surface-to-air missile system. Iran and Russia signed an $800 million contract in 2007 to supply Tehran with five battalions of the anti-aircraft system, which would substantially boost Iran’s capacity to defend its nuclear installations. But last September President Dmitry Medvedev banned transfer of the S-300 to Tehran. He argued that the most recent round of Security Council sanctions against Iran—adopted in June 2010—prohibited their delivery.

Tehran disagrees. In an interview on Wednesday, Iran’s ambassador to Russia reiterated his government’s view that the S-300 is a defensive weapons system that falls outside the confines of the sanctions regime. It’s a position that the Iranians have maintained since Medvedev issued his decree last fall. Russia, however, was apparently shocked by Iran’s lawsuit. “We recognize the statement by Iranian officials about the intention to dispute Russia’s actions in an arbitrational procedure,” a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Thursday. “At the same time, taking into account the traditionally friendly character of bilateral relations, it arouses surprise that our Iranian partners chose such a course.”

But a potential slip by the Iranian ambassador during his interview brings into question Russia’s purported surprise. “We filed suit so that the decision of the court would help Russia to realize these deliveries [of the S-300], so that Russia would have a legal trump,” the ambassador said. In other words, an evaluation by the court that existing UN sanctions don’t legally forbid sale of the S-300 to Iran—or an ambiguous verdict that fails to explicitly state that they do—would give Moscow a pretext to move forward with the transfer. And Russia has real interests in selling the S-300 to Iran. The system’s producer announced earlier this month that absent new costumers production of the S-300 will be halted by the end of the year. From Moscow’s perspective, the Iranian arms market looks increasingly attractive as two of its largest weapons buyers—Syria and Venezuela—face uncertainty at home.

The recent Russian-Iranian rapprochement makes Moscow’s supposed bewilderment at Tehran’s lawsuit even less credulous. This might be a coordinated effort.  Don’t be surprised if Iran ultimately acquires the S-300. And if it does, expect Tehran to be even more bold in its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Cross-posted at the Center for Defense Studies

Kenneth P. Green

What’s That Smell?

By Kenneth P. Green

August 25, 2011, 3:07 pm

The wannabe greenhouse gas control community is in a complete swivet over Rick Perry’s stance on the climate change issue. While George W. Bush was pilloried for his position on climate change, Perry seems to be inciting a whole new level of fury.

Over at Grist, Dave Roberts seems to have left the land of reasoned discourse, and returned to his “Nuremburg trials for climate deniers” mentality. This time, Dave is railing against the dread conservative white men (CWM(tm)), a surviving branch of the Dead White European Men who are, of course, the Root of All Evil. Over at the Collide-a-scape blog, the formerly-civil environmental journalist Keith Kloor is referring to people who disagree with him as “your ilk,” and has taken an increasingly uncivil tone (objection to which is considered whining). I don’t know about Keith, but I have my doubts about winning over the hearts and minds of people by referring to them as whining ilk.

I could put a name on this phenomenon (Perry Derangement Syndrome comes to mind), but I really don’t think this is about Perry. The climate-control people don’t fear that Perry will win any given election, nor do they fear what his policy initiatives might be: those things can be mitigated or waited out by bureaucracy, democrat opposition, etc.

No, what they fear is what a Perry victory (or even a good showing) would mean for the entire greenhouse gas control agenda: If Perry’s flat-out stand that the entire issue is a hoax isn’t an obstacle to his winning votes in a presidential race, it’s an unambiguous signal that the climate issue is well-and-truly, staked-and-decapitated vampire-style dead. Opinion polls can be spun this way and that, but the results of presidential races, well, not so much.*

Hence, my prediction: expect an unprecedented level of venom from the GHG-control community over Perry’s rejection of climate science as a hoax, because they know that if he can get a lot of votes standing on that platform, the issue is dead.

*For the record, I believe that the basic science of climate change is real, (though exaggerated), and poses modest to moderate risks that can be accommodated with relatively painless (and perhaps beneficial) policies designed to build social resilience. No return to the caves required. Oh, and I’m an ardent evolutionist.

Last week, I pointed out that for almost 50 years, unemployment rates among males working in hospitals or other parts of the health services industry have been lower than for their counterparts in the rest of the economy. The pattern for women, however, is far different. For nearly a half century, women working in health services outside of hospitals have routinely experienced higher unemployment than their counterparts in the rest of the civilian workforce—typically by two to three percentage points (figure 16.3b). Recall that non-hospital health settings include nursing homes in addition to physician offices or other ambulatory locations.

Many decades ago, women working in hospitals also experienced higher unemployment rates than in the rest of the economy. Prior to the introduction of Medicare and Medicaid in 1966 (both programs were enacted on July 30, 1965, but Medicaid did not begin until January 1, 1966 and Medicare began on July 1, 1966), the unemployment rate among female hospital workers was double that of female workers in the civilian workforce and even slightly exceeded the unemployment rate for women in the rest of the health services industry. Subsequently, however, unemployment rates fell well below those for women in other health services jobs and since 1994, female hospital workers have been in the same position as their male counterparts, enjoying an unemployment rate well below that of workers in the rest of the economy.

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Nick Schulz: Glory is sometimes born of catastrophe. “Steve Jobs: America’s Greatest Failure
Michael Rubin: Will self-preservation keep Iran from using nuclear arms? Don’t bet your life. “Tehran’s Nuclear Endgame
Desmond Lachman: The US economy may be in bad shape, but not as bad as Japan or Europe. “The Dollar
Claude Barfield: “It’s Time to Dump the Doha Development Round
John R. Bolton: “Facing Facts on O’s Syria Miscues

There will be lots of ink spilled over the next several days about Steve Jobs and his many successes. But it’s more important to consider his failures.

UPDATE: Interesting thoughts from Phil Bowermater, John Guardiano, Andrew Samwick, and Nick Gillespie.

Governor and president wanna-be Rick Perry is not the only Texas politician making news these days when it comes to doing battle with the administration. Republican Senator John Cornyn is pushing the White House to approve the sale of 66 much-needed new F-16C/Ds to Taiwan. For several years now, Taiwan has made it clear that it wants to buy the fighters in an effort to upgrade its own air fleet and replace existing fighters that need to be retired.  But neither the Obama administration nor the Bush administration before it has been willing even to receive a formal “letter of request” from Taipei to at least begin discussions about a sale—this, in spite of the fact that report after report, including the just-released Chinese Military Power Report by the Pentagon makes it clear that the balance of military force across the Taiwan Strait increasingly favors the People’s Republic.

To his credit, Senator Cornyn has been leading the effort to turn the situation around. This summer he put “a hold” on the nomination of Bill Burns to be deputy secretary of state until Secretary Clinton agreed to make a decision on the sale of the F-16s by October 1. Of course, the expectation both here in DC and in Taipei is that, out of fear of upsetting Beijing, the administration will still say “no” to the sale and, instead, offer upgrades to F-16s bought by Taiwan in the early 1990s. Like Solomon, the administration will suggest that it can “split the baby”—except in this case, the baby really will die. What Taiwan needs now (and what the Taiwan Relations Act requires) is both new capabilities and more of them if it is to have a reasonable chance of defending itself in the face of the relentless buildup of Chinese military forces.

And because it is the law of the land that “the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability,” Senator Cornyn is now suggesting that, should the administration not go forward with the sale, he will propose adding an amendment to the defense authorization bill this fall to force the deal through. If he does, the senator will be acting fully in accord with the long-standing role of Congress as watchdog over U.S.-Taiwan ties ever since the Carter administration’s decision to terminate formal relations with the island in 1979.

Almost certainly there will be administration officials who, on background of course, will suggest that the senator is pushing this matter because the F-16s would be built in Texas and there are thousands of jobs involved. To which the senator ought to respond: “Hell, yes.  Not only is selling Taiwan F-16s good policy but it’s also good for our economy, an economy that, by the way, needs all the help it can get.”

What happens when the media becomes vested in a certain perspective in an issue? Over the last few years, just as natural gas became plentiful because of massive discoveries of shale gas, the narrative from some of the most radical environmentalists, and journalists who echo the hard-left line, has shifted from “natural gas is a great bridge to alternative energy sources” to “natural gas is dirtier than coal.”

So earlier this year when researchers Robert Howarth and Anthony Ingraffea at Cornell University released a letter based on their unpublished research—not peer reviewed—suggesting that shale gas might be worse for global warming than coal, it was hyped by the New York Times and widely picked up. Many analysts, from experts from energy firms and even unlikely places such as the Council on Foreign Relations and the Natural Resources Defense Council poked holes in the study, but their comments got little play.

This deafening silence was repeated again earlier this month when scientists at Carnegie Mellon University, in a study partly funded by the Sierra Club, concluded just the opposite, in concert with the mainstream scientific view: shale gas, in this case derived from the huge Marcellus Formation which lies under New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio, has significantly less impact on global warming than coal.

“Marcellus shale gas emits 50 percent fewer greenhouse gas emissions than any US coal-fired plant,” said study co-author Chris Hendrickson. John Hanger, the former head of Pennsylvania’s environmental agency during the prior Democratic administration, wrote on his blog that the study “debunks and decimates professor Howarth’s hit piece study that the NYT gas reporter and other media gave so much attention.”

Hanger is referring to the much-maligned series of reports attacking natural gas fracking (the process used to extract gas from shale) by embattled New York Times reporter, Ian Urbina, whose work has been rebuked on two separate occasions by the Times’ public editor, Arthur Brisbane.

But Urbina is at it again. In an article published earlier this month, he dredged up a 27-year old incident, claiming that hydraulic fracturing fluids contaminated a well in West Virginia. That would seem to conflict with comments from the industry, and even EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson, who said in May, “I am not aware of any proven case where the fracking process itself has affected water.”

Even if Urbina is correct, that’s one known incident out of more than one million wells hydraulically fractured in the history of the industry. But as Forbes’s contributor and University of Houston professor Michael Economides wrote yesterday, the cause of that one instance remains unclear, which is why organizations that track fracking, such as the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission, still maintain there have been no contamination incidents.

Even worse, Economides writes, Urbina falsely accuses industry representatives of trying to prevent a 1987 EPA report that cited this West Virginia case from circulating, when in fact the case was sealed, as is common in legal settlements. All in all, he says, more questionable reporting, particularly by the Times, and more misleading fodder for anti-fracking environmental activists and policy-makers.

Jon Entine is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Health & Risk Communication at George Mason University and STATS, and is a visiting fellow at AEI.


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