Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s half-brother, the most powerful and controversial figure in southern Afghanistan, was assassinated by a senior associate this morning at his home in Kandahar City. The death of Ahmed Wali Karzai leaves a perilous power vacuum in the south at a critical time when the United States and NATO are trying to consolidate security gains of the past year, repel the Taliban’s summer offensive, transition security to the Afghan lead, and shift the fight against the Taliban from the south to eastern Afghanistan.
For the U.S. military, Wali Karzai was both an asset and a liability. He was the de facto governor of Kandahar, and his dominance over Kandahar’s security, political, and economic affairs was seen as a major setback to improving local governance and establishing an accountable and democratic leadership in the region. He had his own private militias and was accused of being the ringleader of regional drugs and criminal mafia.
Despite these flaws, he proved to be a staunch ally of the United States and NATO in the fight against the Taliban and al Qaeda. Both the CIA and the military relied on his influential network to maintain stability in the strategically important province. Unlike President Karzai, he wanted U.S. troops to stay in Kandahar, and, on several occasions, mobilized tribes to support anti-Taliban offensives by the coalition forces.
His death also means that President Karzai will now find it hard to have the same level of influence and control in Kandahar, as he had completely subordinated security and political affairs in the province to his half-brother. This will be a big challenge for the embattled president, who is readying his government for the transition process and is in an intense conflict with parliament that threatens to impeach him.
Wali Karzai’s death is the latest in a series of assassinations of senior Afghan officials over the past months, such as Kandahar’s police chief, the top police commander of northern Afghanistan, and the governor of Takhar province. The Taliban claimed responsibility for Karzai’s assassination immediately, but the killing appears to be more a result of personal or family feud than a Taliban plot. Mohammad Sardar, the assassin, was from Wali Karzai’s village and his trusted confidante for almost a decade.
Regardless of who was behind the plot, Wali Karzai’s assassination is a big propaganda and morale victory for the Taliban. The insurgents are now likely to step up targeted killings and suicide attacks in the south to shaken public confidence in the ability of the Afghan government and foreign troops to stabilize the country.
Kandahar is the strategic birthplace of both the Taliban and President Karzai. It is also the focus of the U.S. military surge that drove out the Taliban from their strongholds around Kandahar City. Ahmed Wali’s killing threatens to undo the security gains, as it will change the power structure in Kandahar and trigger a power struggle between members of Karzai’s family and leaders from competing influential tribes—which the Taliban will try to exploit. It remains to be seen what steps President Karzai will take to hold control over and maintain stability in the province.
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He was evil, but our guy. Not a good timing.