AMERICAN.COM

On Friday, hopes that the Gaddafi era might be coming to an end were raised by this Wall Street Journal story indicating that the “U.S. Says Gadhafi Might Flee Tripoli”:

New U.S. intelligence shows Col. Moammar Gadhafi is “seriously considering” fleeing Tripoli for a more secure location outside the capital, according to U.S. officials, raising the prospect that the Libyan leader’s hold on power is increasingly fragile.  The intelligence depicts a Libyan leader who “doesn’t feel safe anymore” in Tripoli because of stepped-up strikes by North Atlantic Treaty Organization aircraft and by battlefield gains by rebel forces, according to a senior U.S. national-security official briefed on the recent reports that the intelligence community has shared with the White House and other agencies.

But any hopes that Gaddafi might leave power voluntarily were set back over the weekend when the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for the Libyan strongman, his son, and his military intelligence chief.  The Washington Post reports:

In issuing the ruling, Judge Sanji Mmasenono Monageng .… said the court’s registrar would seek the cooperation of Libya and other governments in securing the three men’s surrender.  “This decision once again highlights the increasing isolation of the Gaddafi regime,” said NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. “It reinforces the reason for NATO’s mission to protect the Libyan people from Gaddafi’s forces. Gaddafi and his henchmen need to realize that time is rapidly running out for them. NATO is more determined than ever to keep up the pressure until all attacks on civilians have ended, until all regime forces have returned to their bases and until there is unhindered access to humanitarian aid for all those who need it.”

If anything, the ICC’s actions will have the opposite effect. There are only two ways Gaddafi will ever leave power: vertically or horizontally. Since NATO can’t seem to manage a horizontal departure, the only option may be to convince him to leave vertically. But for that to happen, Gaddafi must believe he will have some sort of safety in exile. The ICC’s actions send the opposite message, and make it more likely that he will continue his attacks on civilians, and cling to power as long as he can, in order to avoid ending up in the Hague. The ICC’s arrest warrant will thus prolong the conflict and increase civilian casualties. Another great achievement for the cause of international “justice.”