The Enterprise Blog

Archive for May, 2011

Sadanand Dhume

Death of a Journalist

By Sadanand Dhume

May 31, 2011, 5:35 pm

I never met Saleem Shahzad, but like many Pakistan watchers I’ve followed his work for years. Shahzad, Pakistan correspondent for the online daily Asia Times, was what you might call a journalist’s journalist, a reporter other reporters kept track of for his frequent scoops about terrorism and other security matters in Pakistan.

Last week, Shahzad filed his last big story, which claimed that al Qaeda carried out the dramatic May 22 assault on a Pakistani naval base in Karachi after the navy failed to release officers arrested on suspicion of links with the terrorist organization. Shahzad went missing Sunday in Islamabad on his way to a television talk show to discuss the story.

Pakistan has received a lot of bad press of late, much of it justified. But buried beneath the bad news is the simple fact that the country houses some of the bravest journalists in the world. Saleem Shahzad was one of them. Here’s what the Guardian, the Wall Street Journal, and Asia Times have to say about his disappearance and death.

Perhaps whoever killed Shahzad was trying to intimidate a remarkably lively press. But if the Pakistani journalists I know are any indication, Shahzad’s killing is likely to have the opposite effect by amplifying calls for the country’s intelligence agencies and assorted jihadists alike to stop targeting journalists simply doing their jobs.

Nick Schulz

The Missing Link: Growth

By Nick Schulz

May 31, 2011, 2:18 pm

As the budget fight unfolds, keep in mind this chart from Bret Swanson about the various levels of tax revenues from differing growth rates:

Bret writes:

The consensus long range projection is just 2.5%. Fine, what if we could bump growth to a measly 3%? We would still generate an additional $25 trillion in tax revenue over the 40-year period. Didn’t the Medicare actuary just tell us the program’s unfunded liability is $24.6 trillion?

Boosting the share of the economy we collect in taxes doesn’t do any good if the economy lags. Collecting 20% or 25% of GDP in taxes, as some propose, doesn’t get us anywhere close to balance if we grow just 2% or 2.5%. On the other hand, 4% growth with the historical 18% tax-GDP ratio keeps up with even our current profligate spending path. The power of compound growth towers over every other consideration.

Bret prepared this data for a terrific National Chamber Foundation presentation he delivered earlier in the month. It is strange that the budget/entitlement conversation is framed today as mostly involving unpleasant options—cutting benefits that people like, kicking the can down the road, dramatically hiking taxes. Fostering conditions for economic growth is win-win, and it’s bizarre it’s not more central to the discussion.

Auslin: For now, Indo-U.S. ties are mostly aspirational. “The Partnership of the Future
Lachman:Partial Debt Restructuring Will Not Work
Schmitt and Donnelly:Enough“: Gates and Parting Wisdom on “Catastrophic” Defense Cuts
Bate:Are Drugs Made in Emerging Markets Good Quality?
Thiessen:New York Special Election Is No Bellwether
Barone:Pro-Obama Media Always Shocked by Bad Economic News
Rubin:It’s Time for Turkey to End Its Occupation of Iraqi Kurdistan
Amy Kass and Leon Kass:Take Time to Remember
Kelly:Thiel’s Dropout Deal Misses the Point

NEW DELHI–Wags once quipped that Brazil was the country of the future, and always would be. The same can be said for the Indo-U.S. relationship, which has tantalized strategists and geopolitical thinkers in recent years. Given the difficulties and limitations with our aging, half-century alliances and responding to the new realism setting into the Sino-U.S. relationship, India has emerged as the great hope for many. Seeing its torrid economic growth continue, realizing it will soon surpass China in population, and instinctively responding to its liberal democratic society, American observers have seen it as a natural partner for Washington and a future global leader.

After nearly three weeks in India, I came away with a clear sense that our wilder hopes for an Indo-U.S. partnership are highly premature. In the Wall Street Journal, I discuss why we should temper our expectations, but also try to figure out ways to slowly get India more engaged in the productive part of the Indo-Pacific to its east. If we focus solely on Pakistan, then we’ll likely never get a deeper relationship with New Delhi, since Washington’s fear of Islamabad’s collapse means we routinely ignore Indian concerns about the Pakistan threat. Beyond that, however, Indian policy makers and thinkers remain firmly fixed on domestic issues: developing their economy, reducing the grinding poverty that permeates the country, and keeping order in a freewheeling democratic political system. For the partnership to become real, Washington will have to focus on things that India is concerned about, and slowly work to build up trust. The pull of Nehru’s non-aligned thinking is still powerful, even if it is couched in different terms, and to expect a sudden break from the past 60 years simply because we and the Indians recognize growing challenges with China (for example) will lead to great disappointment on the U.S. side.

Two weeks ago a video appeared on the Internet purportedly showing demonstrators in the Syrian city of Hama burning the Iranian, Russian, and Chinese flags.

Last Friday, according to Reuters, protesters in the Syrian city of Albu Kamal on the Iraqi border burned pictures of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, apparently angry over Nasrallah’s speech in Beirut last week praising Syrian President Bashar al Assad.

The two young Iraqis who have been blogging for years at Iraq the Model are understandably delighted:

For decades we watched protesters in the Middle East burn the flags of America, the UK and Israel, as these countries were believed to represent the “enemies of the people.” For the first time, we see protesters burn the flags of Iran, Russia and Hezbollah for a change! Are we witnessing a moment of redefining the “enemies of the people” in the Middle East?  The first video shows protesters in Syria burning the Iranian and Russian flags. The second video shows a protester holding a handwritten sign written in Russian and Arabic addressed to the Russian leadership saying that the Syrian people want their freedom. In the third one, Hezbollah flags are set ablaze in Syria as protesters chanted No to Iran, No to Hezbollah!

Thanks to the blackout that the Assad regime has imposed on news out of Syria, it is impossible to know whether these are representative of sentiment among Syrian protesters or simply isolated incidents. However, they do show that people in Syria notice who is with them and who is against them. They are probably wondering now, as Iranian protesters chanted two years ago, “Obama, Are You With Us or With Them”?

Michael Mazza

China Thumbs Its Nose

By Michael Mazza

May 27, 2011, 5:38 pm

Air China must be offering specials this month on flights to Beijing from rogue states. Over the past 10 days, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il (his third time in the past year), and Burmese President Thein Sein have all visited China. (Is it fair to include Pakistan in a list of rogue states? It may be – my colleague Apoorva Shah has recently explained why Pakistan and North Korea have more in common than you might think). All three are countries with challenging, if not antagonistic, relationships with the United States. All are countries which Washington is trying to pressure, isolate, or otherwise punish. And all engage in some activities (in the case of Pyongyang, lots of activities), which are severely detrimental to U.S. national security interests.

These visits have been fruitful for each of the foreign leaders. Pakistan secured the emergency delivery of 50 JF-17 fighter jets; the original two-year timeline has been sped up to six months (see AEI Resident Fellow Dan Blumenthal’s great WSJ article on this).

Though Kim Jong-Il reportedly failed to secure the Chinese investments he was hoping for, he did receive a warm welcome. Indeed, the official Chinese news agency reported that “Chinese President Hu Jintao said”—and with a straight face, no less!—“China was glad to see the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) gives top priority to improving people’s lives.” According to the BBC, “Chinese state television showed Mr. Kim being embraced and kissed by the Chinese president…The warmth of coverage of his visit, and the flattery of official comments by China, gave Mr. Kim much-needed political support, analysts said.”

Lastly, during Thein Sein’s visit, China and Burma “upgraded their relationship to strategic partnership and inked economic agreements.”

While the specific reasons behind China’s relationship with each of these three states differ, Beijing nurtures all three in an effort both to complicate the international environment for the United States and to pursue a predominance of influence (and eventually power) in the Asia-Pacific.

The timing and quick succession of these three visits is also indicative of growing Chinese bravado. China is, for all intents and purposes, thumbing its nose at the United States, and it is doing so confident that Washington will not respond. Its confidence is apparently well-placed. While Beijing does not let Washington cast a passing glance at Taiwan without throwing a fit, Washington refuses to return the favor when Beijing praises murderers and supplies “emergency” jets to the country that safely harbored Osama Bin Laden for the past half decade. This is, to put it lightly, unfortunate. Washington’s silence only assures that China (and others) will continue to impinge upon American national security interests whenever and wherever they can.

According to a statement from the Pentagon, the United States is in the process of pulling out some of its troops inside Pakistan, many of whom are deployed as trainers to the Pakistani military, following an in-writing request from the Pakistan Army. Islamabad has asked for a scaling back of more than 200 American troops currently deployed inside Pakistan.

The request was initially made in the aftermath of the so-called “Raymond Davis affair,” when a CIA contractor shot and killed two Pakistanis in Lahore in late January. The Pakistani military, in a display of its indignation, asked the United States to pare down its Special Forces training program assisting the paramilitary Pakistani Frontier Corps (FC). The army, still reeling from the fallout and embarrassment of the bin Laden raid, is probably pursuing the request to show its displeasure at the unilateral U.S. action deep inside Pakistan.

The move is a bad one for all involved. The most direct beneficiary of the training program is the Pakistani military itself. U.S. Special Forces trainers are there at the invitation of Pakistan and have done much over the past several years to help train and equip the FC.

Considered for years to be a backwater deployment, the FC lacked funding, attention, training, equipment, and professionalism and, as a result, was frequently bested in battles with the Taliban. Today, the FC is a strikingly more competent organization, and American training, funding, and equipping has had a positive role to play in that transformation. Shrinking the training program will deprive the FC of the mentorship it needs, and Pakistani officers of the relationships they could be developing with their American counterparts. The U.S., too, will suffer from the decreased soldier-to-soldier contact and trust building opportunities that the program encourages.

At the strategic level, the move does not augur well for the U.S.-Pakistan relationship and is evidence that the strategic partners have not yet made it through the rough patches. The recent trip by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Admiral Mike Mullen were meant to help put the relationship back on track and to begin, slowly but surely, re-establishing trust between the two countries. There is much work yet to be done, and the Pakistani call to shrink a program that it ultimately benefits most from is not going to make the task any easier.

Reza Nasim Jan is the Pakistan team leader for the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. He is a co-author of the new report “The Haqqanis in Kurram: The Regional Implications of a Growing Insurgency.”

Up for Grabs? Although Mitt Romney led the Republican presidential field in a question asked by CNN/WMUR in New Hampshire, the most interesting finding among people who said they would vote in the GOP primary there was the response to another question. Eighty-seven percent of them said they had no idea for whom they would vote. The poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire.

Satisfaction? Last week, we highlighted Republicans voters’ satisfaction with the Republican field nationally. In the CNN/WMUR poll cited above, 51 percent of self-identified Republican primary voters in New Hampshire said they were satisfied with their choice of candidates. Forty-three percent were dissatisfied.

ObamaCare on Track: Some reporters have interpreted the results of the May AP/GfK-Roper poll as showing growing support for ObamaCare. We’ve been tracking the results of all polls on the subject, and believe that conclusion is premature. The new May Kaiser Family Foundation poll, released Wednesday, finds 42 percent with a favorable impression of the law, and 44 percent an unfavorable one, virtually unchanged from a month ago (41-41 percent) and a year ago (41-44 percent in May 2010). Also holding steady in the new Kaiser poll are views about what should be done about the law now. Thirty percent want to expand it, 21 percent to keep the law as it is, 19 percent repeal it and replace with a Republican alternative, and 19 percent repeal and not replace.

Michelle: In the new Marist poll, two-thirds had a favorable impression of First Lady Michelle Obama, while only 17 percent had an unfavorable view. Strong pluralities of Republicans (46 percent) and Tea Party supporters (43 percent) viewed her positively. Around a third of these two groups had an unfavorable opinion and the rest were unsure.

Gains for Gays: In a previous post, we noted a new Gallup poll showing that a majority agreed marriages by same-sex couples should be recognized by the law as valid. This poll is one of several new polls this year showing majority support for the first time for gay marriage. Gallup provided more data this week on attitudes toward homosexuality. Sixty-four percent now believe gay and lesbian relations between consenting adults should be legal, and in a separate question 56 percent said homosexual relations were morally acceptable; 39 percent said they were morally wrong.

Newt’s Numbers: It’s been a rough start for Newt Gingrich in the presidential primaries. In the latest Zogby poll, only 3 percent of self-idenfitied Republican primary voters stated they would vote for him. Seventeen percent of GOP primary voters said they would never vote for him, the highest number for any of the 13 potential candidates tested.

Marc Thiessen

The Seinfeld Senate

By Marc Thiessen

May 27, 2011, 1:08 pm

Remember the old Seinfeld episode where George and Jerry come up with the idea for a “show about nothing”?

Well, under the leadership of Senator Harry Reid, the U.S. Senate is increasingly becoming a “show about nothing” in its own right. Consider: Last year, when Democrats controlled both houses of Congress and the White House, they failed to approve one single appropriations bill. Not one. And it has now been more than two years—757 days, to be precise—since they approved a budget.

Having failed to produce a budget of their own, yesterday Senate Democrats held votes on four separate budget proposals:

— The budget put forward by Representative Paul Ryan

— The budget put forward by Senator Rand Paul

— The budget put forward by Senator Pat Toomey

— And the budget put forward by President Barack Obama.

What did the Senate pass? Nothing.

Not only did they pass nothing, Senate Democrats voted for nothing—they unanimously opposed all four budget proposals. Even the Obama budget was defeated by a vote of 0-97. That’s right, not one single Senate Democrat voted in favor of the budget put forward by their own president. Not one Democrat voted “yes” on any budget—not one.

So Senate Democrats have put forward no budget proposal, and have voted in unison against all the budget proposals put forward by Republicans and Democrats alike. You can almost hear Senators Reid and Durbin talking in the Senate dining room:

Durbin: “So what’s happening with the budget, have you come up with anything?”

Reid: “No, nothing.”

Durbin: “Why don’t they have salsa on the table?”

The Reid Senate is fast becoming the Seinfeld Senate: a show about nothing.

AEI’s Program on American Citizenship:Why Memorial Day Matters
Goldberg: Republicans need to fight to stay alive. “The Die Is Cast
Biggs:Right-Sizing the Federal Workforce

Yesterday the White House unveiled the results of its expansive regulatory review, announcing plans to streamline processes and cut bureaucratic red tape at 30 departments and agencies. The administration also vowed to let unprecedented transparency into the regulatory reform process, posting plans (which could become final in 80 days or so, according to regulatory czar Cass Sunstein here at AEI yesterday) for review and comment on the White House website.

Sure enough, the home page package on WhiteHouse.gov this morning leads with reg reform, touting a “simpler, smarter” system and inviting all to come “share your feedback.” Cool. This takes you to the reg home page, where in the lead box you click “read the plans and share your feedback” to be taken to the page outlining the plans by department, with a link to “read and discuss” each plan.

Whoops. Every plan I clicked on said that comments, all at zero, were closed.

Last week, President Obama said “President Assad now has a choice:  He can lead that transition, or get out of the way.” Syria also rated a passing mention at the president’s presser with British Prime Minister David Cameron yesterday. Getting Assad out of the way doesn’t appear much of a priority for the president, however, as we have not so much as withdrawn our ambassador, let alone begun to ratchet up the kind of serious pressure that would force the Assad from power.

Think about how little we have done (some sanctions), about how key Syria is to the nexus of terror and of Iranian force projection, and then read this. Here’s a teaser:

When they told him to take down his pants, I could see his swollen genitals, tied tight with a plastic cable. ‘I have nothing to tell, but I am neither a traitor and activist. I am just a trader,’ said the man, who said he was from Idlib province in the north west of Syria. To my horror, a masked man took a pair of wires from a household power socket and gave him electric shocks to the head.

Blumenthal: Assisting Islamabad at this point shows just how responsible an international player Beijing is. “China Breeds Chaos
Makin:Has the Financial Crisis Jeopardized the Fed’s Independence?
Reinhart:How Federal Reserve Policies Add to Hard Times at the Pump
Hayward:UN Climate Talks and the Power Politics: It’s Not about the Temperature

Alexander Lukashenkothe comb-over Castro who rules Europe’s last dictatorshipis reaching out to the West in hope of securing a financial bailout for Belarus. Absent sweeping political reform, the answer should be a flat “nyet.”

I recall visiting Belarus’s beleaguered capital, Minsk, back in 2000. It was like crossing through the time-space continuum back into the old USSR: Statues of Lenin and KGB founder Feliks Dzerzhinsky stood proudly in the squares of the capital; people waited in long lines outside state stores for bread, shoes, and whatever paltry items may be available that day; troops stood on every street corner, menacing passers-by; opposition leaders were regularly rounded and thrown into secret police prisonsor, in some cases, simply “disappeared.”

Not much has changed in the decade sinceexcept that Belarus’s command economy is now on the brink of implosion. Meanwhile, Soviet-style political repression continues unabated. Last December, after Lukashenko stole yet another election to extend his 17-year rule, the KGB (yes, they still call it the KGB) brutally dispersed tens of thousands of people who converged on Minsk’s central square to protest. They arrested hundreds, and sentenced opposition leaders to long prison terms for organizing the rally.

Now, the New York Times reports, Lukashenko wants to trade the freedom of these opposition leaders in exchange for billions in Western aid:

Facing a deepening economic crisis in Belarus, the country’s authoritarian president, Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, indicated on Wednesday that he might free his imprisoned political rivals, a signal that he could be ready to strike a deal with Western governments in exchange for financial support.

Until now, Mr. Lukashenko has openly mocked demands from the United States and the European Union to release about two dozen opposition figures who were jailed for participating in a large protest over the president’s victory in fraud-riddled elections last year.

But the Belarussian economy now appears to be in free fall. Foreign currency reserves are dwindling, and prices are rising. Already in steep decline, the Belarussian ruble was devalued by an additional 36 percent this week, and many economists say it could plunge further….

A large foreign bailout is imperative, economists say, but a $3 billion loan tentatively offered by Russia has been slow in coming, and might not be enough in any case.

That leaves only the West.

“They are still screaming, ‘Free the political prisoners,’ ” Mr. Lukashenko said Wednesday, referring to Western officials. “We’ll free them probably. No need to blow government money on prisons, eating up bread”….

“This is a signal that our government is now open to a deal,” said Sergei Chaly, an independent economist in Minsk, the capital of Belarus.

If Lukashenko really wants a deal, he knows what he must doand it requires more than releasing a few dozen political prisoners. Unless and until he is willing to open not just the doors of his KGB dungeons, but the political system that imprisons millions of his countrymen, he should get not one red cent from the West.

My colleague Stuart James and I sat down yesterday with AEI visiting scholar and regular contributor to the Enterprise Blog Jonah Goldberg to chat about some hot news topics. If you’re curious about what Jonah thinks of Paul Ryan’s Medicare plan, the 2012 Republican primaries, Bibi Netanyahu and the state of Israel, or even his favorite “Simpsons” episode, I implore you to listen here.

Sadanand Dhume

Pakistan’s ISI on Trial

By Sadanand Dhume

May 26, 2011, 10:20 am

It has been a bad week for Pakistan’s military-intelligence establishment. In a high-profile trial in Chicago, confessed Pakistani-American terrorist David Headley has revealed that his handler in the army’s Inter-Services Intelligence chose a Jewish center as part of the 2008 Mumbai attacks, and plotted against a Danish newspaper that published cartoons of the prophet Mohammed.

Headley’s claims of direct ISI involvement in attacks that killed more than 160 people, including six Americans, could not come at a worse time for an intelligence agency already under the scanner for failing to detect Osama bin Laden’s safe house in the Pakistani garrison town of Abbottabad. Though the ISI’s ties with Lashkar-e-Taiba, the terrorist group behind the attacks, is hardly news, Headley’s testimony, if true, provides a damning insider’s account of how those ties work in practice.

At the same time, Pakistan is grappling with the aftermath of Sunday’s audacious attack by local Taliban on a naval base that killed ten people and destroyed two expensive P-3C Orion surveillance aircraft. Though the popular response in Pakistan has included rallying behind the army and, predictably enough, blaming America for the attack, some of Pakistan’s more thoughtful commentators are raising questions similar to those raised after the Abbottabad raid. In the Express Tribune, columnist Aqil Shah says the attacks shatter myths about the military’s ability to safeguard Pakistan. Says Shah: “Rather than blaming others for its own failures, the military should start doing its actual job for once. And managing real estate, hounding journalists and propping up political alliances is not really a part of it.”

It remains to be seen how Pakistan responds to growing evidence that it needs to rethink its priorities by abandoning adventurism outside its borders and focusing instead on improving its sclerotic economy. (Pakistan’s GDP grew by 2.7 percent last year, about a third as fast as neighboring India’s.) But the events of this month—Abbottabad, PNS Mehran, and the Headley trial—add up to a pattern that even the blindest general ought to be able to recognize.

Cass Sunstein, the head of the White House’s Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, unveiled the results of President Obama’s extensive regulatory review at AEI today, noting that 30 departments and agencies had come up with “action plans” to save time and money that also involved the “creation of teams and institutions” to make sure regulatory reform keeps moving.

In January, Obama ordered an executive review of regulations to identify outdated or excessively burdensome ones that could be ditched. The review was completed on May 18, and early today the White House announced the overhaul proposals.

Calling it a “historic day,” Sunstein expounded on his plans to the AEI audience, calling regulatory review “a corrective to a national debate over regulation that in recent years in part has become too polarized and stylized.”

Sunstein said that the reform proposals, which are now available for public review as they head to become final rules in roughly 80 days, “underline and italicize the words freedom of choice.”

He said that while the cost-benefit analysis needs to be weighed carefully in rulemaking, the administration had moved forward with “flexible, innovative approaches” in regulatory reform.

“We’ve launched initiatives that have helped drive highway deaths to their lowest levels in 60 years,” Sunstein said. “A lot of people are alive today” because of those efforts, he added.

He said that the rulemaking and reform process needed to be nonpartisan as “critical safeguards for public health and safety” are weighed and implemented. “Differences in values will lead to differences in conclusions even if the evidence is clear,” he said, adding that Obama’s executive order introduced a “fresher approach to regulation with state-of-the-art thinking.”

“We are taking immediate steps to eliminate hundreds of millions of dollars  in regulatory burdens,” Sunstein said, with billions in savings promised in the future.

These include:

- A “paperless initiative” in the Treasury Department that is projected to save 12 million pounds of paper and $400 million.

- Freeing the dairy industry from EPA oil spill regulations — “Gives new meaning to the phrase ‘don’t cry over spilled milk,’” Sunstein said.

- An Occupational Health and Safety Administration rule finalized today that eliminates 1.9 million annual hours of “reporting burdens on employers,” with an estimated $40 million annual savings.

- Creating a system of hazard labels that conforms to “international harmonization.”

- Making sure federal regulatory code doesn’t refer to nations that no longer exist.

- Asking doctors and hospitals to help identify antiquated or burdensome Health and Human Services regulations that can be targeted for rollback.

“Many of the initiatives  come not from Washington but directly from the American people,” Sunstein said, adding that the administration aims to “change the regulatory culture in Washington.”

“The change requires constant exploration of what is working and what isn’t,” he said.

Sunstein said that the regulatory review required they “not just look back, but look ahead.” He said the administration would encourage public participation in the process with “timely” online access to documents to scrutinize,  an effort to “harmonize and simplify” rules in some sectors that may overlap, directing agencies to predict future benefits on costs related to rulemaking, and promoting compliance through simplification of bureaucratic red-tape.

“We can’t be solving serious problems in the abstract,” Sunstein said. “Polarized positions are just stuck.”

Last week, the left-wing blogs were abuzz with renewed criticism of Ed Pinto’s data on subprime and Alt-A lending. Mike Konczal and Paul Krugman triumphantly displayed a graph from a February 2011 paper by David Min of the Center for American Progress that they claimed as proof that Pinto’s numbers—which I relied on in my dissent from the majority report of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission—were fraudulent. The graph is copied below.

Honestly, it’s hard to believe anyone gives these characters the time of day, let alone reads their work. The Min graph is grossly deficient in almost every way possible, and the fact that it would be cited by both Konczal and Krugman confirms their utter ignorance of this subject.

Let’s start with a basic problem. The chart is a fake. It’s mislabeled as coming from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) National Delinquency Survey for the second quarter of 2010, but only the two bars labeled “Conforming” and “Actual Subprime” actually come from the MBA’s survey. The MBA survey includes only three categories—government loans, prime loans, and subprime loans. The survey does not include any of the data in the two bars to the left, labeled “Pinto high risk: Freddie>90 LTV” and “Pinto high risk: Freddie 620-659 FICO.” Accordingly, the data in those two bars had to come from somewhere else, namely Freddie Mac, but is misrepresented as coming from the MBA survey.

There are many other material deficiencies. In fact, just about everything in the graph is deceptive. If this were sales material, Min, Konczal, and Krugman would all be jailed by Elizabeth Warren. Let’s take for example the bar called “Pinto high risk: Freddie 620-659 FICO.” It shows a 10.04 percent serious delinquency rate for these mortgages. The implication is that these are all the mortgages below 660 FICO. But these are not all the mortgages in that category. Min (perhaps) neglected to mention the mortgages below 620 FICO. It turns out that 14.4 percent of those mortgages were also seriously delinquent. So Min has selected one limited group and tried to demonstrate that it is considerably smaller than the delinquency rate on the “Actual Subprime” in the chart. It’s like saying that a mortgage has an loan-to-value ratio of 80 percent, but forgetting to mention that there’s a second mortgage for the additional 20 percent.

Min’s chart is misleading for two more reasons. His argument—dutifully accepted by Konczal and Krugman—was that “Actual Subprime” (which Min never defines but are loans made and securitized by the private sector) had a much higher rate of delinquency than the portion of Freddie’s exposure that was represented by loans to borrowers with FICO scores of less than 660—which Pinto had labeled as “subprime.” This comparison is offered to demonstrate that the loans made by the private sector were worse than Fannie and Freddie’s loans.

But Min doesn’t tell us—perhaps he doesn’t know—that Fannie and Freddie were the largest buyers of these “Actual Subprime” loans, so that many fewer would have been outstanding if Fannie and Freddie hadn’t needed them to meet their affordable housing requirements. In addition, the percentages Min presents are meaningless because he doesn’t tell us the actual numbers of loans involved. For example, if there are 1000 “Actual Subprime” loans and 1 million Freddie loans to borrowers with FICO scores between 620 and 659, the latter are of course going to be more significant in terms of their effect in the financial crisis. Pinto found that what Min labels as “Actual Subprime” (and Pinto calls “self-denominated subprime”) were less than one-third of the total number of all subprime and Alt-A loans outstanding in 2008. If you want to see Pinto’s actual numbers for these low quality loans, compared to Fannie and Freddie prime loans, see Table 3, page 21 of my dissent.

Finally, even if we stipulate that the “Actual Subprime” is a significant number—enough to contribute significantly to the financial crisis—the fact that it might have been of even lower quality than the other subprime loans made by Fannie and Freddie is not relevant to Min’s claims that Pinto made Fannie and Freddie’s loans look worse than they actually were. The loans that Fannie and Freddie acquired—and Pinto identified—were of sufficiently low quality to cause these giant companies to become deeply insolvent. They have already required over $150 billion of assistance from the Treasury just to stay afloat, and their regulator has estimated that their losses may eventually total between $221 and $363 billion. Thus, they were bad enough to sink Fannie and Freddie and drive down housing prices all over the United States.

There is no end of the deceptions that the Krugmans, Konczals, and Mins will cook up in order to avoid the truth: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as required by the affordable housing goals established by HUD, acquired 12 million subprime and Alt-A loans by 2008 and in the process destroyed themselves and triggered the financial crisis.

(Department of Defense)

A former member of the U.S. leadership team for the international forces in Afghanistan credited President Ronald Reagan with bringing pride back to Americans’ image of military service.

Command Sergeant Major Michael T. Hall, U.S. Army (Ret.), said at the AEI “Why Memorial Day?” event today that there was a “time when the meaning and relevancy of Memorial Day waned.” Whereas Americans took pride in the victories in two world wars, many wondered “how could we win in World War II and not beat North Korea?”

“I think people thought that somehow our soldiers had changed… and did not represent the best of us anymore,” Hall said. “Soldiers and their values did not change, but many people’s perceptions of them did.”

After the Vietnam war, he noted, veterans were compelled to keep their experiences to themselves and “wouldn’t or couldn’t talk about it.”

Reagan brought those service members out of the shadows, Hall said.

“He literally put our money where his mouth was for the first time since World War II,” he said, adding that the 40th president “invaded Grenada to show the Cubans we were still in charge,” gave better military wages to attract better people, and gave a stirring D-Day address at Normandy in 1984 that revived pride in the service of all veterans.

“These men, the bravest of the brave, standing in front of President Reagan cried in public and we cried with them,” Hall said. And, he stressed, military members began wearing uniforms in public again, and Vietnam veterans publicly took pride in their service.

Senator John McCain (R-Arizona) said at AEI today that Memorial Day reminds us to cherish our freedom and its responsibilities, “Whether it calls us to arms or altruism or politics.”

Giving a brief address at the “Why Memorial Day?” discussion before heading to the Senate for 5 p.m. budget votes, McCain did not mention his six years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. Yet he noted that in his youth he viewed the holiday as “the unofficial first day of summer,” a time for picnics and days at the beach, as many do.

“The older I become the more meaning Memorial Day holds,” McCain said, “whether you have served in uniform or not.”

The senator said that even though all would not have the “privilege and burden” of serving, the “grim tests of courage and character have made a legend of combat veterans’ devotion to duty” in every part of America.

“We have to love our freedom not just for the private opportunities it provides but the goodness it makes possible,” McCain said, adding “we must love it enough to argue about it.”

And as the world still holds many dangers, many will be called to sacrifice again. “Man’s inhumanity to man is an evil that will never be entirely extinct,” he said. “Americans will be asked again to bear burdens that only the brave can endure.”

On Memorial Day,  the senator stressed, we must remember “those Americans for whom duty, honor and love of country were more dear to them than life itself.”

“We must not forget what they did,” McCain said. “Their honor is eternal.”

Senator John McCain (R-Arizona) stopped at AEI for a Memorial Day event before a round of early evening Senate budget votes today, noting that the “conduct of Congress for a long time” has done “disservice to people we’re honoring on this Memorial Day.”

McCain was to be a panelist at the “Why Memorial Day? A Discussion and Book Forum on What So Proudly We Hail: The American Soul in Story, Speech, and Song” event by the AEI Program on Citizenship and the Hudson Institute (watch video here).

He delivered a short address before the program began at 4:30 p.m., as he was due back in the upper chamber for a series of four budget votes at 5 p.m. Democrats aimed to force the GOP’s hand on Medicare cuts by putting House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s (R-Wisconsin) plan up for a vote, as well as plans introduced by Senators Pat Toomey (R-Pennsylvania) and Rand Paul (R-Kentucky). Republicans also insisted on a vote on President Obama’s budget plan.

McCain apologized to the AEI audience “for having to come here and leave abruptly for four nonessential, nonsensical votes.”

“Which once I explain to my constituents they wouldn’t mind if I missed,” the senator quipped.

Despite the “unfortunate gridlock,” he said, it was important for him to be present for the votes.

The Spanish government has put the military in charge of Spanish air space to get commercial jets flying again after a strike by air traffic controllers stranded tens of thousands of travelers. What is the issue? The Wall Street Journal recently reported on some details of the long simmering dispute: 

When air travel plunged following the global recession in 2008, Spanish air-traffic controllers suffered little impact: They were earning, on average, a half a million dollars apiece.

Last year, as the Spanish government tried cutting those payouts to below $300,000—still 10 times Spain’s average salary—controllers protested by staging wildcat strikes during December holidays.

Socialist Prime Minister José Luis Zapatero, normally a friend of organized labor, called in the army to force controllers back to work before Christmas.

Yes, folks, you read that right. Spanish air traffic controllers make an average of $500,000 a year (indeed, according to the Times of London, ten of them were paid between $1.1 and $1.3 million last year, while another 226 were paid between $630,000 and $770,000). And they are upset because the government wants to pare back their average take to below $300,000 a year. So they are on strike. And the Spanish people actually put up with this.

The question is: For that money, do they stay actually awake?

Everyone knows just how much higher oil prices hurt at the gas pump, but just how does OPEC make out when oil prices soar? The most recent estimate from the Energy Information Administration, displayed in the figure below, was done back in December and as such is out of date, probably underestimating both the 2011 and 2012 revenues OPEC can expect. Still, even with a lower projected oil price last December, OPEC revenues were expected to grow from $571 billion in 2009 to $847 billion this year. This is one reason why OPEC has been resisting pleas from the United States to increase production and push down the price of oil.

Over on RealClearMarkets.com today, I have a column on why we might not expect too much help from OPEC when it meets next in two weeks, and what the United States ought to do if it is serious about dealing with this problem.

Alfoneh:Ahmadinejad versus Khamenei: IRGC Wins, Civilians Lose
Barone: President Obama’s Chicago-style politics explain ObamaCare waivers. “Obama Skirts Rule of Law to Reward Pals, Punish Foes
Hayward:The Troubled Outlook for Oil Markets
Ornstein:GOP Presidential Candidates Affect Agenda
Goldberg:Run, Paul Ryan, Run
Lachman:Is There Any Hope for Greece?
Greve:Take On the NLRB

Jonah Goldberg

The Paul Ryan Bandwagon

By Jonah Goldberg

May 25, 2011, 11:25 am

Paul Ryan has a new video on his effort to save Medicare:

Meanwhile, I’m on the Ryan bandwagon these days.


The American Enterprise Institute takes no institutional positions on policy advocacy or political campaigns. The views expressed on The Enterprise Blog represent those of the individual writers.

AEI