The Enterprise Blog

Archive for March, 2010

Andrew Smarick

Unions, Partisanship, and the Race to the Top

By Andrew Smarick

March 31, 2010, 4:29 pm

classroomWhen Education Secretary Arne Duncan announced the first-round winners of the Race to the Top (Delaware and Tennessee), some immediately charged that politics had played a part in the selection process. Some said the awards were made to help bolster the administration’s increasingly endangered electoral prospects. Both winning states have Democratic governors, and both have important 2010 statewide elections for seats currently held by Democrats but at risk of going red. Moreover, three states long considered Race to the Top front-runners that didn’t win (Florida, Louisiana, and Rhode Island) have GOP governors.

Others charged that the awards were made to boost the chances of the administration’s blueprint for the reauthorization of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act (the federal government’s major K-12 education law). Two Republicans key to the plan’s success, Senator Lamar Alexander and Congressman Mike Castle, call Tennessee and Delaware home, respectively.

So partisan politics determined the outcome, right? I have a different take on the situation. I think politics did play a role, but a subtler and more interesting one than held in the conventional wisdom.

As I wrote on Monday, the awards made clear that “stakeholder support” was important (though not everything). That is, states were rewarded for crafting plans that state education stakeholders, including teacher’s unions, would support.

A couple months back, I posited a theory that application strength and stakeholder support would be inversely related, meaning no state could do well on both scores. But it appears that Delaware and Tennessee were able to slightly complicate the formula in my theory of everything. Both had unanimous stakeholder support levels while still submitting relatively robust plans.

So how did they pull this off? It appears that each state’s Democratic leadership was key. In both cases, the unions came to the negotiating table, conceded several important points, and ultimately embraced the plan. As Tennessee’s governor noted, “I was able to get the T.E.A. [Tennessee Education Association] to accept some things that probably a Republican wouldn’t have gotten done.”

And during the state’s presentation to the Department of Education, Delaware’s teacher’s union president actually presented the most controversial and laudable part of the state’s plan, the section related to reforming the teaching profession.

In Florida, on the other hand, only 8 percent of the state’s unions signed on to the state application. In Rhode Island, it was only 4 percent. And in both states, many union leaders not only withheld their support, they also actively and publicly opposed the states’ plans.

It remains an open question, however, which side is to blame for the delta between GOP state leaders and teacher’s unions. Maybe GOP leaders could do a better job of outreach. Or maybe the unions are only willing to play ball with officials who have a parenthetical “D” behind their names.

But two facts remain: stakeholder support is important and at least two states were able to pair it with a meaningful reform plan. Keep an eye on this issue as the second and final round of the Race to the Top heats up: Can GOP leaders and unions come to agreement in any state?

Image by jenlight.

greenpeace2Reports from the front lines in the nasty skirmish between Greenpeace and Nestlé over the company’s purchase of palm oil for its Kit-Kat candy bar and other products suggest that negotiations are in the works. Greenpeace and Nestlé executives are reportedly discussing the campaign and boycott threat.

Capitulation is probably a better word for what’s transpiring. The Swiss food giant has been hammered for more than two weeks by the multinational advocacy group in what is shaping up to be the most successful anti-corporate social media campaign ever.

Greenpeace has long been at odds with Nestlé over a variety of issues, including encouraging mothers to use infant formula that could be mixed with tainted water and for using ingredients made from bioengineered crops.

In its latest salvo, Greenpeace has been seeding social media sites with allegations that Nestlé is contributing to the destruction of Indonesia’s rainforest, exacerbating global warming, and endangering orangutans. It posted a grisly mock commercial of Nestlé’s iconic “Have a Break” Kit-Kat ad on YouTube. The company got it removed from YouTube, which served only to send it viral across the Internet. As part of its orchestrated campaign, Greenpeace supporters stormed Nestlés’s Facebook fan page with nasty posts and swamped Twitter with propaganda focused on Nestlé’s dealings with an Indonesian firm, Sinar Mas, which Greenpeace accuses of destroying rainforests for plantations. Protests took place across Europe as around 100 Greenpeace activists, some dressed as orangutans, went to Nestlé’s headquarters in London, Amsterdam, and Frankfurt, and to seven Nestlé factories across Germany. They called on Nestlé staff to urge the company to stop using palm oil that’s the result of forest destruction.

The day the protest began, on March 19, Nestlé posted a response that it had stopped dealing with the firm, which only supplied 1.25 percent of the all the palm oil it used last year. But Nestlé has said that because palm oil batches are often mixed, it can’t guarantee that some tiny fraction of the oil it uses still doesn’t originate with Sinar Mas. Needless to say, the concession didn’t end the protest.

Deep in damage control, Nestlé appears to have abandoned its Facebook page altogether, leaving it to Kit-Kat bashers, who are now calling for a boycott of all the company’s products. And if things couldn’t be any worse, beleaguered Indonesian palm oil planters are threatening to boycott Nestlé as well for demonizing their livelihood and cutting ties.

The brouhaha has touched off a tsunami of analysis about the increasing role of anti-corporate social media campaigns. Slate’s Bernhard Warner debates whether an ill-prepared Nestlé can ever recover its Facebook page, which is now firmly in the hands of its fiercest critics.

Richard Telofksi, who analyzes corporate social media campaigns on his blog, Irregular Competition, suggests that Greenpeace, though clearly the winner in this campaign, has stepped on the facts to make its case. Other bloggers have weighed in about how to prevent your site from becoming a Trojan horse. The Atlantic’s Niraj Chokshi has her list of what companies can learn from Nestlé’s fumblings.

As hard as it may be for Nestlé to accept, this battle is over. It may just have to let this storm run its course as it takes steps to reorganize its supply chain and begins to rebuild its brand.

Image by Greenpeace Finland.

Greenpeace now has cloud computing in its crosshairs. If you ever wondered why the huge data centers were being built as close as possible to large hydro plants, now you know—cloud computing is an energy hog. Expect to hear more about this going forward. It will be interesting to see if green groups try to demonize the high-tech industry the way they’ve demonized coal and other fossil fuel firms.

oldschoolSo we’re going to expand access to college with a huge education reform that was packaged with healthcare reform (Hey, why not? No need to have an actual, you know, debate over it).

Half of all high school graduates currently enroll in four-year colleges, which is already far too many. The kind of academic abilities required to do well in college—not just survive for four years taking the easiest available courses, but cope with genuine college-level material—are possessed by only 10 to 15 percent of young people.

This discrepancy between enrollment and aptitude may help explain why more than 40 percent of those students who enroll in four-year colleges drop out before getting their degree—often burdened with debt, feeling that they’ve wasted both time and opportunities.

And yet we want to “expand access.” Even the Obama administration’s one sign of good sense, its interest in expanding the community college system, is phrased in terms of eventually producing more and more graduates with BAs. Might I suggest some modest proposals? Make it tougher to get college loans, not easier. Tie loans to evidence of educational preparation that gives students a realistic chance of succeeding. And at the same time do everything we can to demystify the BA—a degree that no longer means anything. Almost all high school graduates need more training after high school. The use of the BA as the one-size-fits-all symbol of success in that training is stupid and cruel.

Image by AuntOwwee.

Jay Richards

Is Leftism a Religion?

By Jay Richards

March 31, 2010, 9:14 am

While there are many sincerely religious people of left-wing religious persuasion, leftism—the particular fetish that ascribes ever-greater power to a centralized state—functions in many ways as a religion for people who have lost faith in the traditional subject of religious belief. At National Review Online, Dennis Prager argues that leftism doesn’t just function in many ways as a religion. It pretty much is a religion. While I don’t like to stretch the word “religion” too far, there’s something to his argument.

American conservatives believe in a limited government, which means that they believe much of reality is under the jurisdiction of other institutions—the family, neighborhood associations, churches and synagogues, and the like. One’s religious convictions give rise to political implications, to be sure; but politics is derivative rather than fundamental.

Not all conservatives are religious, of course; but, if you are deeply religious (and thinking clearly), you’re much less likely to believe in an extremely expansive government that absorbs the other jurisdictions. So your politics are unlikely to trump your religious convictions. If you’re a religious leftist, on the other hand, there’s more competition for allegiances, and when one’s “religious” views are in conflict with political ends, the religion tends to give way.

Prager gives some telling examples of this problem, including one from recent headlines: the perplexing flip-flop of Democratic Congressman Bart Stupak. “In his inner conflict between Catholicism and Leftism,” Prager argues, “the more dynamic religion won.” It’s a provocative thesis, but one worth exploring. If leftism is, at bottom, a secular religion, then the leftism in religious leftism will always find a way of coming out on top.

Nick Schulz

Aging China

By Nick Schulz

March 31, 2010, 7:48 am

oldchinesemanTwo hospital morgue workers have been detained by Chinese police investigating the origin of 21 fetuses and babies whose bodies were discovered washed up on a riverbank, some with hospital identification tags still on their ankles.

News reports didn’t give a breakdown of the sexes of the dead babies. China’s family-planning rules aim to limit the number of children that parents are allowed. Families’ traditional preference for male babies remains strong. Sex-selection abortions are illegal, but the ratio of boys to girls in China has become skewed because of the abortions of female fetuses and the abandonment and killing of newborn girls.

That’s from the WSJ. In Joel Kotkin’s terrific new book about America’s next hundred million residents, which I reviewed in the Journal (“The More, The Better“), he argues that China’s rise is threatened by the fact that, due to its one-child and other policies, China will become a rapidly aging society just ten years from now. It’s a major demographic problem—and a humanitarian and human rights one, too.

Image by Anthony Xiao Wen.

recyclenuclearfuelCheck one. The first of three outstanding issues holding up the full implementation of the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement has been completed: negotiations have been successfully concluded on the U.S.-India agreement on the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel. The agreement will enable Indian reprocessing of U.S.-origin spent nuclear fuel under International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards.

As previously discussed, however, two important issues remain.

First, it has been rumored that the completion of the reprocessing agreement, a major Indian priority, will be followed shortly by the Indian government’s granting of the “Part 810” assurances required by the U.S. Department of Energy to authorize U.S. companies to participate in most aspects of civil nuclear activities abroad.

The second issue, dealing with nuclear damage liability, is more complicated. Pending legislation on this issue was shelved in the Indian parliament three weeks ago and is yet to be re-introduced. The legislation has faced political difficulties because various domestic forces in India have deigned it a demand from U.S. nuclear fuel suppliers to simply duck their liability in case of an accident. However, this is far from the truth, as all foreign and domestic nuclear suppliers need such a law in place to operate effectively in the Indian nuclear market. French and Russian suppliers are essentially being backstopped by their home governments and thus have not demanded this legislation prior to their entry into the Indian market. And, without such a law in place, in the unfortunate case of a nuclear accident, injured Indian citizens will be left holding the bag with no legal recourse and Russian and French nuclear suppliers could simply play the sovereign immunity card. As a result of this stalled legislation, India also has been unable to join the Convention on Supplemental Compensation for Nuclear Damage, which not only puts in place liability protections for foreign nuclear energy suppliers, but protects the interests of Indian citizens in the case of a nuclear accident.

Hopefully, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will show strong leadership so that these two pending issues are taken up immediately to allow the benefits of the Civil Nuclear Agreement to flow to both sides.

Image by Argonne National Laboratory.

In the New York Times, Mary Walsh looks at the sorry condition of state budgets, paying particular attention to unfunded public employee pension liabilities. She drew on a recent AEI working paper of mine that calculated the market value of such shortfalls. It’s a good article and worth checking out.

Here I expand on the numbers she used to give a more complete picture of how big the financial hurdles facing Americans truly are. The chart below shows three types of debt:

• Explicit state borrowing, in the form of general obligations bonds and other debt.
• The market value of unfunded state employee pension obligations; this is generally several times higher than the value states themselves acknowledge.
• States’ shares of the total federal debt: these are calculated by assuming that states bear the federal debt in the same proportion to which they pay overall federal income taxes, such that high income taxes will tend to carry proportionately more than low-income states.

stacked-debt

All these debts are expressed as a percentage of state gross domestic product, as a way of showing each state’s ability to service the debt.

When combined, the picture is grim. The average state has a combined debt of 104 percent of GDP, with the 10 worst states each having total debts exceeding 128 percent of GDP. That’s around where Greece was when the music stopped.

What separates states, and the United States in general, from Greece is that while we clearly have a solvency problem—our total liabilities far exceed our total assets—we don’t yet have a liquidity problem, where we can’t produce the dollars today needed to fund current obligations. But that state of affairs won’t go on forever. As the Times story notes, states like California are speeding up tax collections and delaying payments in order to keep current on their payments. And this won’t necessarily get easier over time.

While I’m an optimist by nature, it’s getting harder and harder to see a smooth transition out of these problems.

378px-darwin_1881I’ve received a number of nice emails in response to my post yesterday and a couple worthwhile questions. First, there’s this:

Sharp piece in AEI, but apparently I may be a bit confused on one point. Clarence Darrow was a pointed critic of eugenics. Yet disgust with Social Darwinism, in part, caused many to side with the state against Scopes. I always thought, perhaps incorrectly, eugenics was simply Social Darwinism on speed, an extreme manifestation of the theory.

In the mind of Bryan and many others, Darwinism had been used to justify social inequities (granted, this was a perversion of the science but it had in fact happened). Any idea as to how the Progressives embraced eugenics so readily yet rejected Social Darwinism? This was one question that remained with me after I read your fantastic book last summer. The other had to do with syndicalism but I won’t bother you with that one.

Thanks and I realize you probably get too much email to respond.

And then there’s this:

Dear Jonah,

Your piece on eugenics at the Enterprise Blog was excellent and full of fascinating information. The only thing that leaves me puzzled is when you characterize Oliver Wendell Holmes as a “liberal hero”. Even though many of his judicial rulings were favored by liberals and progressives, I question whether any simple political label can accurately characterize Holmes, whose judicial and political philosophies were extremely complicated and idiosyncratic.

Personally, Holmes was not generally supportive of organized labor or other progressive causes, although he supported the right of elected legislatures to enact policy, progressive or otherwise, if they so chose. Mostly, Holmes supported legislatures’ right to make any laws they wanted unless those laws offended his sensibilities in some way (i.e., Abrams v. United States). My only point is that Holmes was too complex to be pigeonholed in a particular political category, especially contemporary political categories.

Thanks again for the informative article.

Let me try to answer both at once. Let’s start with Holmes. I agree entirely that his views were complex and glib categorization of his philosophy is hard (though there’s an embarrassing pile of fawning quotes from liberals about Holmes I can dig up if necessary. Felix Frankfurter dubbed Holmes “truly the impersonal voice of the Constitution,” which is nonsense on stilts). Holmes was a dark and nihilistic man, whose philosophical pragmatism led him into morally dubious waters (See my National Review colleague Ramesh Ponnuru’s review of a recent Holmes biography for a better sense of all that).

But while some of Holmes’s individual pronouncements and rulings can be scored on the right side of the ledger, he was—I would argue—a man who should ultimately be counted on the left. And by left I mean he was in league with the Progressivism of his age. He was a product of its intellectual currents and an advocate for many of Progressivism’s core ambitions. Most relevantly for this discussion, his deference to state legislators—so admired by conservatives—was usually (as in Lochner) deference to state power in general and Progressive social meddlers in particular. “If my fellow citizens want to go to hell, I will help them. It’s my job,” he famously said.

But he rarely, if ever, shared such sentiments in the name of holding back Progressive schemes. As H.L. Mencken put it, he was no “advocate of the rights of man,” but instead “an advocate of the rights of lawmakers.” While liberals today praise his “clear and present danger” test for free speech, Holmes intended it as a means to empower the state to lock a lot of people up.

As for eugenics, his passionate support for it was of a piece with his view of state power generally (or vice versa in some instances). As Sidney Webb once put it, “No consistent eugenicist can be a ‘Laisser Faire’ individualist,” he wrote, “unless he throws up the game in despair. He must interfere, interfere, interfere!”

In Holmes’s famous dissent in Lochner he rejected an implicit constitutional right to contract saying, “The Fourteenth Amendment does not enact Mr. Herbert Spencer’s Social Statics.”

Which brings us to the first emailer, who sees eugenics as “social Darwinism” on speed. I think this a very common way of thinking about social Darwinism and eugenics, and I think it is entirely wrong. The salient point about social Darwinism, as laid out by Herbert Spencer, its chief author and the man who coined the phrase “survival of the fittest,” is that it was an argument for radical libertarianism. Spencer was a passionate foe of statism. He was precisely the “‘Laisser Faire’ individualist” Webb had in mind. This is why it is so infuriating when liberal historians and intellectuals blame Spencer for eugenics, Hitler, etc. Spencer would have been horrified at all that. Why it should continually be news to some liberals is beyond me: but the Nazis were not laissez faire.

The missing piece of the puzzle is what the historian Eric Goldman and others have called “reform Darwinism.” This was the view that Darwinism legitimized state interference on eugenic grounds. Holmes’s expressed desire to use the law to “build a race” was quintessential reform Darwinism. Buck v. Bell was reform Darwinism. Holmes’s ridicule of Spencer in Lochner was perfectly consistent with Holmes’s statism and his reform Darwinism. The problem we have today is that any concept of reform Darwinism has dropped out of the discussion. All people remember is the term “social Darwinism,” which is supposed to describe both Hitlerism (hyper statist) and radical laissez faire (the opposite of hyper statism). Social Darwinism may be bad on any number of fronts (bad politics, bad science, bad philosophy, bad morals, etc.) but it isn’t statist.

wwwrandomhousecomMatthew Bishop and Michael Green have written a couple of books arguing for a new and improved version of virtuous or “philanthrocapitalism” to replace the “greed is good” capitalism that supposedly gave rise to the financial crisis. Many on the left are deeply skeptical about their latest book, The Road from Ruin: How to Revive Capitalism and Put America Back on Top, since Bishop and Green seem to argue that capitalists can embrace goodness. They defend themselves against this criticism over at the Huffington Post:

We see ourselves more as skeptics than idealists. We don’t believe capitalism will ever be perfect, or that you can entirely drive out the dark side of human nature. But we can do a lot better than we have done so far. Here’s why we think long termism and values-based business—what we call philanthrocapitalism—can emerge as the new best way to do business, especially if the rest of us do our bit to push capitalism in the right direction.

Basically, if I understand them, at least part of their argument is that “short-termism,” in which corporate executives are incentivized to seek their own short-term gain at the long-term expense of their companies, led to the financial crisis. They describe the last few years as

the era of IBGYBG—”I’ll Be Gone, You’ll Be Gone”—in which bankers did terrible deals safe in the knowledge that they would have pocketed their commissions and moved on to a new job before the awful consequences of the deals became clear.

The good news is that we now know the dangers of this way of working, so we can implement policies that will align the incentives of decision makers with the long-term interests of their companies.

Of course the question is why we’d end up with such a bad alignment of incentives in the first place. But, that aside, this basic argument is surely reasonable. We ought not trust people just to do the right thing, especially if it contradicts their own interests. So if we want a rightly ordered economy in which the decision makers in banks and major corporations don’t do destructive things, then incentives need to be aligned so that by pursuing their own self-interest, decision makers will act in the interest of the companies on behalf of which they are acting. Who can argue with that?

Unfortunately, Bishop and Green muddle this argument with a bunch of other unrelated feel-good stuff. So they elaborate:

Now that the intellectual support for short-termism has been discredited by the crisis, we all need to do our part to shove capitalism towards long-termism. So, if you are a manager, sign a business oath. Move some of your company’s money to a community bank. Buy products that are green, or fair traded, or otherwise ethically produced. Above all, demand that the pension funds and mutual funds that manage your retirement savings invest your money in a way that rewards long-term responsible behavior, not short-term profit-chasing. Some of these pension funds and mutual funds have been the worst offenders by encouraging short-termism. Isn’t it about time the government made it clear that they are failing in their fiduciary responsibility to manage our money prudently? How about a campaign to get the Department of Labor and Pensions to sue, say, Fidelity on behalf of its customers for failing to act in their long-term best interests?

None of this advances the clear, defensible thesis. What does putting money in a community bank, buying green and fair trade products, or even signing a business oath have to do with getting executives to act in the longer term interest of their companies?

savingsToday, President Obama signed into law the second healthcare bill, the one adopted through the budget reconciliation process. Among many other provisions, the bill imposes a new 3.8 percent tax, starting in 2013, on certain investment income received by households with incomes above $200,000 ($250,000 for couples). This tax, which was not in the House or Senate healthcare bills, was adopted without any congressional hearings and with little public debate. Earlier this month, Amy Roden and I discussed how the tax, then expected to be imposed at a 2.9 percent rate, is likely to impede economic growth.

The new law places the investment tax provisions in new Chapter 2A of the Internal Revenue Code, which is captioned “Unearned Income Medicare Contribution.” This four-word caption achieves the startling feat of being misleading or incorrect in three separate ways.

First, the tax will have only a tenuous link to Medicare. To be sure, its proceeds will be earmarked to the Medicare Part B trust fund that finances outpatient care. Because Congress has already given this trust fund unlimited authority to draw on general revenues, however, this earmarking will not increase the amount of money available to the Medicare Part B program. The impact on the allocation of federal resources will be no different than if the proceeds were paid into the general treasury. Although not completely incorrect, the caption’s reference to Medicare is misleading.

Second, the tax will not apply to “unearned income,” but to income earned by savers who defer consumption and thereby provide resources for business investment. (Unfortunately, this mislabeling is not a new feature of the Internal Revenue Code. A number of past and present provisions, including those pertaining to the earned income tax credit and the foreign earned income exclusion, use the term “earned income” to refer only to income earned by workers and not to income earned by savers.) Congress’s failure to recognize that income from saving is a form of earned income has disquieting implications for its future policy decisions.

Third, the new levy will not be a voluntary “contribution” offered by the affected households, but will instead be a tax payment compelled by law. (The mislabeling of taxes as contributions is also not new; Chapter 21 of the Internal Revenue Code, which pertains to Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes, is captioned “Federal Insurance Contributions Act.”) The legislative language within the new chapter is more candid than the caption, consistently referring to the levy as a “tax.” Certainly, any affected household that chooses not to make this “contribution” in 2013 will quickly learn that there is nothing voluntary about it.

Amending or repealing the new chapter’s substantive provisions would promote economic growth. As a modest first step, though, consideration should be given to amending the caption. Changing it to “Tax on Income Earned by Savers” would be a small victory for transparency in tax policy.

UPDATE: In my original posting, I understated one of my points, because I overlooked a last-minute change to the bill. In reality, the reference to “Medicare” in the caption of Chapter 2A is entirely false, rather than merely misleading. Although the bill originally included a provision earmarking the proceeds of the tax to the Medicare Part B trust fund, that provision was removed prior to passage of the bill. Under the final version of the law, the tax proceeds are simply paid into the general treasury. The “unearned income Medicare contribution” therefore has no Medicare link at all.

Image by Alan Cleaver.

The news that Ford is selling its Volvo unit to a Chinese firm few Americans have heard of broke on the same day we held an event with the National Chamber Foundation on American competitiveness. C-SPAN was there so I’ll link to the event later, but the discussion was excellent and wide-ranging.

Of note was Kevin Hassett’s observation that the top marginal corporate tax rate in the United States has not been competitive with the rest of the world (or even the OECD). The chart says it all:

topcorprate

If policy makers are looking to make the country more competitive, here’s a good place to start.

windmillsAs I’ve written elsewhere, “Anyone who thinks the United States is going to compete with China for windmill and solar cell manufacturing, given that nation’s lower labor rates and greater access to vital rare-earth elements, is living in a fantasy world.” Green job hucksters pooh-pooh such observations, trotting out the old “America can do anything we put our minds to” routine. And that may be true, but it is completely irrelevant to the situation. As Ronald Reagan observed, “Facts are stubborn things.” And so are economics and monopolist behavior.

A perfect demonstration of the economic reality of our non-competitive labor rates can be seen in the decision of BP to shut down a solar-panel manufacturing plant in Frederick, Maryland. The plant was expanded with great fanfare three and a half years ago, and green jobs were the order of the day. BP was to pour $70 million into the expansion, but instead, they’ll be moving their production to—surprise!—China and India. BP will be laying off about 300 people here, and, as they can’t find any buyers for their building, they’ll be tearing it down. The Washington Post (a frequent “green energy” booster) now points out that BP, which once (fatuously) declared its new mission as moving “Beyond Petroleum,” is still “committed” to solar power, just not here. “‘We remain absolutely committed to solar,’ BP chief executive Tony Hayward said in an interview Friday. But he said BP was ‘moving to where we can manufacture cheaply.’”

And for those who doubted the United States would be balked in leading the green-power revolution because of obscure rare earth elements that nobody can pronounce (Dysprosium, anyone? Neodymium? Yttrium?), the evidence is becoming overwhelming that we will indeed be stymied by our lack of supply. As Daniel McGroarty, a principal of the Carmot Strategic Group observes, China is involved in an intentional strategy to ensure that the Chinese, not the United States, will be the ones building the green devices of tomorrow. And it’s not only the obvious devices, like windmills and solar panels. China will be making your compact fluorescent bulbs, your power-saving computer monitor, cell-phone display, fiber-optic cables, automotive components, and much more.

As McGroarty points out,

The more rare earths the world has consumed, the fewer have been mined here in the United States. In 1985—before the emergence of the public Internet and in the infancy of the laptop revolution—the U.S. produced half of the world’s rare earths supply. By 2000, world production had more than doubled, while the U.S. share dropped below 10 percent. In 2002, U.S. rare earth production dropped to zero, with the shuttering of the lone rare earths mine in Mountain Pass, Calif. Today, 95 percent of all rare earths produced worldwide come from a single country: China.

And “It’s one thing” McGroarty adds,

when a monopolist uses its market advantage to extract a premium for its product. Consumers grumble, then pay up. But it’s a different story when the sole supplier won’t sell at any price, and that’s where China is heading. Each year for the past half decade, China has tightened its export restrictions on rare earths, reserving production to feed its own roaring economy. In addition, China has set its sights on green energy manufacturing, using its near-monopoly on rare earths to require foreign companies seeking access to the elements to locate their factories in China” (emphasis mine).

Many U.S. policy makers on both sides of the aisle have drunk the “green energy Kool-Aid,” and support the rapid expansion of wind and solar power as a means to “create jobs” and to stimulate what they claim is the next great opportunity for wealth creation in the United States. But the reality is, the more we invest in wind and solar power, the more we create jobs in China and India, which will increasingly sell us the devices that, in many cases, we designed, but cannot manufacture competitively due to high labor rates, and a complete lack of investment in securing the rare earth elements needed in manufacturing.

Image by Gabby Canonizado.

voteLast week in Asilomar, California, at a meeting sponsored by the Climate Institute, experts of various stripes gathered to discuss the future of geoengineering. Wikipedia describes geoengineering as efforts “to deliberately manipulate the Earth’s climate to counteract the effects of global warming from greenhouse gas emissions.” (Many scientists regard the term “climate engineering,” or CE for short, as a more accurate description.) As at all expert gatherings, one heard some very insightful things, and, one also heard some things that were, well, perhaps not so insightful.

Proposals to subject CE experiments to some form of global-scale participatory democracy fall in the latter category. At the conference, some versions of the idea were voiced more stridently than others. Essentially, though, all these demands rest on the same logic. CE, were it to be tested, might affect climate everywhere. Climate impacts everyone; so everyone should have a voice. No one would trust most Third World governments to protect the interests of their citizens; thus some means, it is claimed, must be found to assess the global general will.

As a matter of practical reason, this line of thought is faulty. About 40 percent of the world’s population, mostly those in very poor countries, has not even heard of climate change; therefore, insisting on proof of global informed consent as a precondition for testing CE amounts to saying that CE can never be tested—exactly the outcome that some may want, but not necessarily the one that best serves the interests of the people in whose names the demand is being made.

Further, governments of the more industrialized states have concrete obligations to their own peoples. The U.S. Constitution enjoins our government to promote the general welfare, and the context is clearly a national one. A U.S. government that allowed abstract notions of global informed consent to block action needed to protect Americans from harm would soon find itself out of office—and rightly so.

At the same time, post–World War II history also makes clear that Americans, all else being equal, prefer to achieve their own ends in ways that further those of other nations. Then too, growing global interdependence acts to reinforce U.S. interest of the wealth, stability, and welfare in other nations. It impels other open societies in the same direction. In effect, trade, linked markets, and mobile populations broaden the definition of enlightened self-interest.

This incentive for advanced states to take a broad view suggests one of the insightful things said at Asilomar. Ambassador Richard Benedick proposed that about 15 major world powers should manage large CE tests—and perhaps eventually deployment. Managing CE will entail many choices, and, as knowledge grows, it will be necessary to frequently fine-tune the system. Expectations and interests will differ, and bargaining costs may be high. With too many players, the process could easily grind to a halt. The major states, by virtue of their power to act alone on CE, automatically have a voice in CE decisions, and the far-flung nature of their interests ensures that many of them would pay heed to the risk of ill effects—wherever they might occur.

Limiting active control of CE to those states that already have the de facto power to affect outcomes would deprive Third World kleptocracies of the chance to halt progress in hopes of exacting more bribes—one of the pathologies prominent in the current UN climate policy framework. To be sure, control by the major powers will likely be imperfect, but, then again, locking the world into a CE stalemate pending arrival of global-scale Periclean democracy seems to be an even less appealing option.

Image by John Morton.

Frederick M. Hess

The Race to Kumbaya

By Frederick M. Hess

March 29, 2010, 2:45 pm

holdinghandsPerhaps they should have called it the “Race to Consensus” or the “Race to Stakeholder Buy-In.” Upon hearing there were only two round-one Race to the Top (RTT) winners, I thought Education Secretary Arne Duncan deserved some credit for recovering his footing after the fiasco of naming 16 round-one finalists. Then, when I heard the two were Delaware and Tennessee, I had second thoughts. And they brought to mind my observation from a few months back (and restated this morning) that the numerical marker was a terrific tool for Duncan. All he had to do to get laurels was limit the number of blue ribbons—and now he’s done that.

Looking at Delaware and Tennessee leaves me thinking that all the talk about bold reform was window dressing. The states that explicitly set out to blow past conventions, and devil take the hindmost, fell by the wayside. Florida and Louisiana’s bold, action-backed plans—which reflected a belief that they could push forward if they did so only with the eager and willing—lost out to states that obtained laughable levels of buy-in from school districts, school boards, and local teachers’ unions.

Tennessee boasted that it had obtained signatures of participation from 100 percent of Local Education Agency (LEA) superintendents, 100 percent from the presidents of local school boards, and 93 percent from the local teachers union leaders. Delaware bragged that it obtained 100 percent of the signatures in each category. Is this really a good thing? When Louisiana faced board pushback because of the boldness of its proposals, and when Florida endured an Florida Education Association boycott over its own proposed measures, the decision to go with Delaware and Tennessee looks like the triumph of process over substance. If anyone believes that Delaware can get 100 percent—or even 60 percent—of districts or union leaders to sign on to efforts to dramatically retool K-12 schooling, I’ve got a couple of handsome monuments in downtown D.C. I’d like to sell them.

Placing this much weight on “stakeholder support” is going to feed cynicism about the sincerity of Duncan’s calls for bold, transformative change. Hard to square this very conventional emphasis on consensus with all his tough talk. Of course, this does remind us of his famously cautious reform efforts in Chicago. Wonder if the White House is having second thoughts yet about having passed on Joel Klein?

Image by Tacuma.

Andrew Smarick

The Stakeholder Precedent in Race to the Top

By Andrew Smarick

March 29, 2010, 2:43 pm

The selection of Delaware and Tennessee as Race to the Top winners is not only newsworthy, it’s also very important.

First, both states had good plans—not great plans but certainly good. The Education Department deserves credit for selecting only two states. Instead of giving grants to clearly undeserving states, it kept the bar high.

But the bigger and not entirely positive story is just how important “stakeholder support”—meaning whether unions, school boards, and other establishment organizations agreed with the plan—turned out to be. In the final estimation, the support of these groups was as valuable to the administration as the substance of the reforms.

Florida, Louisiana, and Rhode Island had very good plans—the strongest in my view. But their unions opposed their proposals, especially in Rhode Island and Florida. So those states lost. Two other finalists, North Carolina and Kentucky, had weak plans but high levels of stakeholder support. They lost too. Tennessee and Delaware distinguished themselves with worthy plans and nearly unanimous union and school district support. And they won.

So both a strong, reform-oriented proposal and statewide consensus on the new direction are necessary conditions. But neither on its own is sufficient.

This formula, however sensible on its face, puts other states in a very difficult position. First, Florida, Louisiana, and Rhode Island now have to wonder, “What reforms do we give up in order to get our stakeholders to support the plan?”

Second, in other states, unions and districts may conclude that they have a veto over their states’ proposals. If a state adds an element with which they disagree, these organizations can simply say, “Unless you change that provision, we won’t sign on and you won’t win.”

The implications of this for round two are terribly fascinating and not altogether encouraging. Assuming that few, if any, states are able to convince their stakeholders to sign on to a very bold plan, the question becomes: which is better, a bold plan with no buy-in or a watered-down plan with buy-in?

In states with elected officials without strong reform inclinations, we’re likely to see state capitulation to stakeholder demands. The plans will be weak, but they will have broad support. But in states where officials are committed to reform, there will be fierce negotiations between stakeholders saying, “Unless you bend to our will, we won’t consent, and the state will lose,” and state leaders saying, “Unless you embrace reform, our proposal will be weak, and the state will lose.”

Game on.

Jonah Goldberg

Liberals and Eugenics

By Jonah Goldberg

March 29, 2010, 10:02 am

eugenicsIn the chapter of my book dealing with eugenics, I write:

When reading the literature on the subjects of eugenics and race, one commonly finds academics blaming eugenics on “conservative” tendencies within the scientific, economic, or larger progressive communities. Why? Because according to liberals, racism is objectively conservative. Anti-Semitism is conservative. Hostility to the poor (that is, social Darwinism) is conservative. Therefore, whenever a liberal is racist or fond of eugenics, he is magically transformed into a conservative. In short, liberalism is never morally wrong, and so when liberals are morally flawed, it’s because they’re really conservatives!

Not surprisingly, my book did little to eradicate the habit. Consider this often-interesting piece on Paul Popenoe in the latest New Yorker. The author, Jill Lepore, writes (emphasis mine):

It has become a commonplace, on the right, to label eugenics “progressive” (in order, presumably, to make the word “progressive” as ugly a smear as “liberal”). Eugenics dates to the Progressive Era, when it was faddish. Early on, and particularly before the First World War, it was embraced by reformers on the left, from Jane Addams to Woodrow Wilson, but the movement that lasted was, at heart, profoundly conservative, atavism disguised as reform. After a while, but nowhere near soon enough, the disguise got pretty flimsy. In “The Eugenics Cult,” an essay that Clarence Darrow wrote in 1926, a year after defending Scopes, he judged that he would rather live in a nation of ill-matched misfits and half-wits than submit to the logic of a bunch of cocksure “uplifters.” “Amongst the schemes for remolding society,” Darrow wrote, “this is the most senseless and impudent that has ever been put forward by irresponsible fanatics to plague a long-suffering race.”

Now, this is a really cleverly written passage. She makes it sound like conservatives are either idiots or liars for suggesting that eugenics was “progressive,” all the while conceding that eugenics was embraced by the likes of Woodrow Wilson and Jane Addams. But that’s just because eugenics merely “dates back” to the Progressive Era and their attachment to it wasn’t serious. It was merely “faddish.”

She goes on to write in the next paragraph:

The week Holmes handed down his decision in Buck v. Bell, the Times reported that Harvard declined a sixty-thousand-dollar bequest to fund eugenics courses, refusing “to teach that the treatment of defective and criminal classes by surgical procedures was a sound doctrine.” Popenoe, undaunted, pressed on. In 1933, he wrote to Bell, asking for photographs of Carrie Buck and her mother and daughter for his archive. He told him, “A hundred years from now you will still have a place in this history of which your descendants may well be proud.” Popenoe, in fact, had become something of a historian. Later that year, Grant published “The Conquest of a Continent; or, The Expansion of Races in America,” a “racial history” based on “scientific interpretation,” recommending “the absolute suspension of all immigration from all countries,” to be followed by the deportation of illegal aliens. Popenoe had spent four years conducting the research for Grant’s book; he had also compiled the bibliography. Unlike “The Passing of the Great Race,” Grant’s American pseudohistory met with a furious reception. Ruth Benedict said that the only difference between it and Nazi racial theory was that “in Germany they say Aryan in place of Nordic.” Franz Boas attacked Grant in The New Republic; Melville Herskovits did so in The Nation. The Anti-Defamation League said that “The Conquest of a Continent” was “even more destructive than Hitler’s Mein Kampf.”

See? Good liberals never embraced this “profoundly conservative, atavism disguised as reform.” Of course, there’s no evidence provided that any conservatives supported eugenics. Merely that these name-check liberal institutions and individuals at some point criticized eugenics.

But this is all, at minimum, misleading. The Nation was then still more of a classically liberal publication. Clarence Darrow, a complicated fellow (who was a rabid jingoist during World War I, and a devastating critic of the New Deal) wrote his anti-eugenics piece for HL Mencken’s American Mercury, hardly a journal that spoke authoritatively for elite progressive opinion unlike, say, The New Republic which, contrary to Lepore’s insinuation, was hardly opposed to eugenics in the 1920s. Sure, by the mid-1930s, they had moved away from it. But that was after Herbert Croly, the founder of the magazine, died. Croly was a believer. For instance, he wrote an unsigned editorial in 1916 which tried to make peace between the eliminationists and sterilizers on the one hand and the uplift-the-downtrodden eugenists on the other. The common ground, TNR argued, was to be found in socialism:

We may suggest that a socialized policy of population cannot be built upon a laissez faire economic policy. So long as the state neglects its good blood, it will let its bad blood alone. There is no certain way of distinguishing between defectiveness in the strain and defectiveness produced by malnutrition, neglected lesions originally curable, or overwork in childhood. When the state assumes the duty of giving a fair opportunity for development to every child, it will find unanimous support for a policy of extinction of stocks incapable of profiting from their privileges.

The  simple truth is that the “cocksure uplifters” Darrow was talking about were all, to a man and a woman, Progressives. Remember, the Progressives hated “social Darwinism,” which was a policy of laissez faire. The uplifters were members of the Addams camp.

Meanwhile, Lepore mentions that the Supreme Court ruled 8-1 in the Buck v. Bell case, led by liberal hero Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr., a passionate eugenicist who considered “building a race” to be at the core of reform. Did Holmes and his fellow justices, including Louis Brandeis, sign on to the cause out of “faddishness”? What about the fact that the lone dissenter was Pierce Butler, a conservative Catholic Democrat appointed by a Republican (whose appointment was opposed by The Nation, The New Republic, and the KKK)?

Look, eugenics was a very complicated phenomenon. But it does not clarify the topic to insist that, contrary to mountains of evidence and common sense, that all of the progressives who subscribed to it were just wearing a conservative mask.

Image by A.M. Kuchling.

Andrew Smarick

Race to the Top Winners Announced Today

By Andrew Smarick

March 29, 2010, 9:57 am

Later today, Education Secretary Arne Duncan will announce the winners in the first round of the Race to the Top competition. The first thing to look for is how many states are selected: the fewer winners, the better. If Duncan gives very few awards—say, three or less—that means he has set the education reform bar at a high level. That will not only be good news for taxpayers (the feds not handing out money willy-nilly), it will expand the reach of the program: With a high bar, losing states will be likelier to pass reform legislation and create strong proposals for the second and final round this summer.

The second thing to look for is which states actually win. There are major differences among the 16 finalists. Some put together great proposals, while others crafted weaker plans that earned the support of teacher’s unions, school boards, and other establishment organizations (the curious scoring system favored both bold ideas and “stakeholder support”).

So if Florida, Louisiana, and/or Rhode Island win, that’s a victory. If Delaware, Tennessee, Colorado, and/or D.C. win, that’s good but not great news. If Ohio, New York, North Carolina, Illinois, South Carolina, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and/or Kentucky win, we should all be very disappointed.

Secretary Duncan promised a “very, very high bar” for this competition and has indicated his understanding of its unique, and therefore precious, nature. This is his big chance to deliver. Stay tuned.

I am a friend and admirer of my American Enterprise Institute colleague Jack Calfee, whose post concerning the Frum kerfuffle appeared on Friday, but I thought it worth a comment that he was mystified by Joe Klein and Michael Tomasky’s apparently blind acceptance of the absurd story about AEI that David Frum may have told Bruce Bartlett. Jack wonders how it could be that these two apparently worldly persons would not understand how think tanks (and especially AEI) actually work.

Now, it may be that Jack, who has a wonderfully dry wit, is pulling our leg a bit here, but it is equally possible, I suppose, that Jack, as a serious scholar, has not been introduced to the vicious little world of point-scoring politics. In that world—epitomized by Klein and Tomasky—the principal goal is not the truth, or even a good argument for what might be the truth, but the ability to spread an obvious untruth without having to take responsibility for it. Of course Klein and Tomasky know that AEI scholars have—contrary to the alleged Frum statement—been relentless and outspoken opponents of ObamaCare. Indeed, if one reads the Klein and Tomasky posts carefully, neither explicitly accepts as true what Frum was alleged to have said to Bartlett, but they multiplied its circulation by reprinting it.

Now this might be somewhat excusable if all they did was reprint the Bartlett statement as an interesting datum, for which they take no responsibility, but they cannot escape censure so easily. Although they carefully did not say that they actually believed that AEI had muzzled its scholars on ObamaCare, they could not resist drawing conclusions from this allegation as though it were a fact. Both use the purported Frum statement as the basis for generalizations about the Republican Party, thus in effect accepting the Frum statement as actually having been made and as true. In that, they revealed not only their political agenda but their fundamental dishonesty.

While I’m on the subject, I’d like to add my voice to the avalanche of protests by my AEI colleagues about any statement—by David Frum or anyone else who repeats it—that AEI has ever muzzled an AEI scholar. In my case, I have been at AEI for 11 years. In 1999, on virtually my first day, I started questioning the government policies—at that point still supported by many Republicans and virtually everyone in the securities, housing, and real estate industries—that underlay Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This was not easy to do at the time. These two companies were thugs and had succeeded in intimidating most organizations and individuals in Washington that might have been their critics. To protect the financial health of a company that did business with Fannie Mae, I concluded that I had to resign from its board of directors because of pressure brought on the company by Fannie as a result of my criticism. I have little doubt that donors to AEI in financial and other businesses that were allied with Fannie Mae were enlisted to bring pressure on AEI because of my work, but I never heard a word about it from AEI’s then-president, Chris DeMuth. In a C-SPAN interview last year, Brian Lamb asked me how I was able to be a critic of Fannie and Freddie when so many others were intimidated. I said it was because I worked at AEI, and as far as I could tell AEI never buckled to pressure from any direction; AEI scholars have always had complete freedom to do and say whatever they pleased. I know this from personal experience, and I can’t fully express my anger at seeing suggestions to the contrary spread by people who know better.

I caught the debate between Florida Republican Senate contenders Governor Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio on “Fox News Sunday.” I hadn’t previously paid much attention to this race, but—as a Social Security specialist—their answers regarding how to fix this program said a lot to me about the relative virtues of the candidates and, perhaps more importantly, regarding Americans’ willingness to take on tough issues.

Rubio pointed out the problems facing the Social Security program and stated that we’re going to have to look at the tough choices, which include raising the retirement age for younger Americans, possibly reducing Cost of Living Adjustments, and other changes to benefits. If you don’t want to raise taxes—which both Crist and Rubio say they oppose—then these are pretty much your only options.

Crist replied that he opposes either a retirement age increase or changes to annual COLAs. Instead, he would focus on attacking “waste and fraud” in the system.

As a general rule, when a politician mentions “waste, fraud, and abuse” it should be interpreted the same as if the candidate wore a sign saying “I’m not serious.” That’s not to say that we don’t have problems with fraud, but that the real problem is simply that the government spends too much.

This is particularly so in the case of Social Security, which is one of the most efficient federal government programs. Social Security takes money from young workers, calculates a benefit for retirees based on their earnings and their years in the workforce, and cuts them a check. There’s not a lot of discretion involved, which reduces chances for things to go wrong. Sure, there are problems in the disability program and I’m confident there are folks getting disability benefits who actually could work. But that’s the fault of the eligibility criteria passed by Congress in the 1980s more than any problem of vetting applicants by the Social Security Administration. On this issue, at least, Crist was very unimpressive.

What did impress me, though, was the fact that Rubio—who, after all, is running for the Senate from Florida—was willing to be upfront about the hard choices awaiting us on Social Security. In part this may be due to the character of the candidate, who struck me as a principled conservative.

But even more so, this may be due to the dawning on Americans that the clock is truly ticking in terms of getting our fiscal house in order. Rubio brought up the problem of Greece’s debt crisis and related it to what America may be looking at in the future. (I discussed this issue here.) It’s a sure sign a country is in tough shape when candidates on national television worry about the value of their currency. Yet, while it’s bad that we have to discuss these things, it’s at least comforting that we’re at last willing to do so.

Archbishop Charles Chaput of Denver has weighed in on ObamaCare, and he doesn’t mince words. Here are a few tidbits:

First, the bill passed by the House on March 21 is a failure of decent lawmaking. It has not been “fixed.” It remains unethical and defective on all of the issues pressed by the U.S. bishops and prolife groups for the past seven months.

Second, the Executive Order promised by the White House to ban the use of federal funds for abortion does not solve the many problems with the bill, which is why the bishops did not—and still do not—see it as a real solution.

Third, the combination of pressure and disinformation used to break the prolife witness on this bill among Democratic members of Congress—despite the strong resistance to this legislation that continues among American voters—should put an end to any talk by Washington leaders about serving the common good or seeking common ground.

That’s for the president and members of Congress. What about those Catholic groups who lobbied for the bill?

Fourth, self-described “Catholic” groups have done a serious disservice to justice, to the Church, and to the ethical needs of the American people by undercutting the leadership and witness of their own bishops.

Chaput notes that for some identifiably left-wing and accommodationist groups, this is “unsurprising.” But he also calls out seemingly nonpartisan groups like the Catholic Health Association:

But the actions of the Catholic Health Association (CHA) in providing a deliberate public counter-message to the bishops were both surprising and profoundly disappointing; and also genuinely damaging. In the crucial final days of debate on healthcare legislation, CHA lobbyists worked directly against the efforts of the American bishops in their approach to members of Congress. The bad law we now likely face, we owe in part to the efforts of the Catholic Health Association and similar “Catholic” organizations.

In our current political environment, there is always some organization using religious language to justify a partisan position. It doesn’t follow that such a group is accurately representing the teaching of the religion it claims to represent. So citizens and legislators who want real moral guidance, who want to follow the teachings of their own faith, have to be especially discerning. A few more straight-talking Archbishops like Charles Chaput would help those efforts immeasurably.

I have turned my office upside down looking for the memo from my employer, the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), telling me not to speak to the media about the Democrats’ health legislation. I can’t find it, and neither can any of my colleagues, because no such order was ever given.

The accusation that we have been muzzled is surrealistic. According to Bruce Bartlett, who claims to have heard it from former AEI scholar David Frum, there has been hardly a peep out of AEI health scholars on ObamaCare. It is not just because we are lazy and unproductive. The real problem, Bartlett asserts, is that we simply agree too much with what Obama is doing.

Can this be true? Let’s look at the record, as reported on AEI’s website. From January 2009 through March 26, 2010, the five principal AEI scholars who work on health policy have written 88 articles for publication, including 20 articles that appeared in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, or Washington Post. That does not include 17 postings on AEI’s Enterprise blog. It also does not include dozens of articles on health reform written by Newt Gingrich, Michael Barone, Norm Ornstein, and other colleagues.

AEI does not keep a running tabulation of the numerous speeches and press interviews that we have given over the past 15 months. I can speak only for myself. From March 1 through March 26, I have given 41 interviews to newspaper and television reporters. If AEI intended to limit my contacts with the press, it failed miserably.

One has only to click on any of the dozens of links on the website to see that AEI scholars can hardly be considered lackeys to the liberal establishment. For example, Tom Miller wrote, “The short, postcard version of Obama’s health reform pitch to the public represents a faith-based initiative that straddles the line between audacity and mendacity” (“Obama Healthcare 2.0,” The American, April 2, 2009). Scott Gottlieb wrote that “two years from now we will likely be looking at an insurance market that has become worse, not better, with premiums higher and more Americans joining the rolls of the uninsured” (“Obamacare is Going to the President’s Desk—What Comes Next?” National Review Online, March 22, 2010). There are plenty of other examples.

But we are not simply naysayers. Tom Miller and I found that health insurance exchanges, one of the core ideas of Obamacare, could promote smarter purchasing by consumers, but not if they are used to overregulate the market and restrict choice (“A Better Prescription,” February 2010). Jack Calfee, Bob Helms, Miller, and I have all pointed out that inappropriate incentives created by tax subsidies for insurance promote inefficient and wasteful use of health services—a problem that is addressed, although not well, by the president’s legislation.

Despite allegations to the contrary, health policy is neither dead nor complacent at AEI. We remain free to praise or criticize public policy as we see fit. As one of AEI’s past presidents, William Baroody Sr. said, “competition of ideas is fundamental to a free society.” We will continue to embrace that ideal in every aspect of AEI’s work.

*With apologies to Stanley Kubrick.

Charles Murray

Irrefutable Point

By Charles Murray

March 26, 2010, 4:34 pm

The flap about allegations of muzzling AEI scholars made by David Frum has been decided once and for all by our own Kevin Hassett. Tunku Varadarajan reports:

I ran this accusation by Kevin Hassett, a senior fellow at the AEI, and his response was that the muzzling charge was “absolutely false and easily falsifiable: Just go to AEI’s Web site! Joseph Antos, Scott Gottlieb, Tom Miller, they’ve been writing practically every day. And Sally Satel, too,” he said, referring to a particularly feisty AEI scholar. “Can you imagine trying to muzzle Sally Satel!”

There’s no answer to that one.

Growing Suspicion Toward Iran

By Andrew Rugg

March 26, 2010, 4:26 pm

In the American Enterprise Institute’s new March Political Report, we take a look at American attitudes toward Iran. Polls show that attitudes have grown increasingly negative. When Gallup recently asked whether respondents had a favorable opinion of several major countries around the globe, Iran placed last out of 21 countries. With only 10 percent having a favorable opinion of it, Iran fell below even North Korea.

Americans are also increasingly suspicious of Iran’s nuclear program. Seventy-one percent of respondents in a February CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll believe that Iran currently has nuclear weapons. In that same poll, 23 percent said that the United States should take military action against Iran now, up from 13 percent in April 2006. Most people, 63 percent, want to give sanctions and diplomatic efforts more time.

rugg-3262010

Yesterday’s parting of ways between David Frum and the American Enterprise Institute triggered a blogger firestorm. Attracting by far the most attention is an item on Bruce Bartlett’s blog:

Since, he is no longer affiliated with AEI, I feel free to say publicly something he told me in private a few months ago. He asked if I had noticed any comments by AEI ‘scholars’ on the subject of health care reform. I said no and he said that was because they had been ordered not to speak to the media because they agreed with too much of what Obama was trying to do.

The blogger Conor Friedersdorf queried AEI scholars directly about whether they had been squelched or guided in their research and publishing. Although he offered anonymity, the result has been a flood of responses, all of which say in one way or another that they have always been free to say whatever they want to say.

In the meantime, however, there is something astonishing about the response to Bartlett’s blog item, namely, the simple fact that many normally sensible and well-informed people have accepted it at face value. Typical is this entry from Joe Klein’s Time Magazine blog. From across the pond at the Guardian, we have Michael Tomasky, who is fully prepared to assume that what Bartlett says is true unless and until Frum himself says it is untrue.

Here is where the true mystery lies, or rather two mysteries. The first mystery is rather prosaic. Bartlett said he didn’t see anything from AEI scholars on healthcare reform and that Frum confirmed the absence of AEI views. Forget about the unfathomable puzzle of how Bartlett could avoid seeing AEI work on healthcare—which has appeared often in outlets like the Wall Street Journal, which Bartlett could avoid only in a most perverse manner—or the puzzle of how Frum could avoid seeing that same material and more, even if he has spent as little time at AEI as seems to be the case. How could media mavens like Klein, who has frequently written on healthcare reform in the past year, completely miss the scores or hundreds of ways in which—to no avail, alas—we health policy scholars have written, conferenced, blogged, and media-pundited on the downsides of Obamacare?

The second mystery is deeper. How could Klein and others so completely misconceive the basic workings of top-tier think tanks? That tier, in which I modestly include AEI, also includes Brookings, where I spent a year in the mid-1990s and where I have long-time friends. The basic strategy at these outfits is to hire strong scholars and fellows (the distinction is unimportant) whose basic orientation, typically revealed through an extensive track record, is roughly consistent with that of the institution’s management. Upon completion of the recruitment process, the institution provides support including research assistance and a complex panoply of publishing, conferences, media relations, and of course, fundraising—and then it simply unleashes those scholars upon the intellectual and policy-making firmament. At that point, the scholars’ instincts and proclivities pretty much take over. The institution really has no other choice. If you peruse the resumes of the scholars at AEI and Brookings, for example, or Google those scholars, it is apparent that trying to tell these people what to say would almost always be hopeless. They are too opinionated, too independent-thinking, too arrogant in many cases (let’s be frank), to permit anything other than yet more proof of the impossibility of herding cats. Constraints come in the form of budgets—you can’t get another research assistant or a $20,000 data set without some special pleading—but that is generally an almost evanescent barrier to opinionating. It is hard to believe that the smart bloggers and writers at Time and elsewhere have failed to learn this basic point about think-tanking, but that seems to be the case.


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