The Enterprise Blog

Archive for August, 2009

Ali Alfoneh

The Iranian War on the Humanities

By Ali Alfoneh

August 31, 2009, 4:18 pm

German author Heinrich Böll noted that the monarchs and princes who established schools to teach reading and writing did not know what they were doing, as reading and writing makes people think rather than blindly obey the authorities. And Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei apparently knows his Böll.

In an audience granted to Iranian academics and university deans on Sunday, Khamenei declared war on the humanities, expressing concern about the shortage of professors with “an Islamic worldview” and slamming the “materialist and atheist foundations” of the humanities that apparently “spread doubt in [the] religious and ideological foundations” of the students.

Khamenei is right. The humanities are not an ideology, the university is not a garrison, university professors are not ideological-political indoctrination officers, and students are trained to develop a critical mind and taught to doubt rather than display ideological conformity. The irony is that this “materialist and atheist” strain of teaching arose despite the post-revolutionary purge of Western-educated Iranian academics.

Khamenei’s pique was likely fueled by the recent show trial of Said Hajjarian, intelligence ministry co-founder turned reformist theoretician and dissident. Hajjarian’s “confessions”—including his admission that he had been “misled” by the works of sociologists Max Weber, Talcott Parsons, and Jürgen Habermas—may have exceeded the intelligence of the grand inquisitor of the revolutionary tribunal, but probably not of Khamenei.

In consequence, expect Khamenei to be in the vanguard of yet another “cultural revolution” aimed at purging anew Iran’s humanities faculty. Monarchs and princes of the past may not have known what they did when they established schools and taught people to read and write, but Khamenei knows. And he intends it to stop.

John Fortier

Crist’s Place Holder

By John Fortier

August 31, 2009, 3:22 pm

Republican Governor of Florida Charlie Crist appointed his former chief of staff, George Lemieux, to fill the U.S. Senate vacancy caused by the resignation of Senator Mel Martinez. Lemieux is a place holder. He will not run for election for the seat in 2010. The leading candidate for the seat is Governor Crist himself.

The seat has taken several interesting turns. First, the news that Senator Martinez would not run again created an open seat (there are six Republican open Senate seat races and two Democratic ones in November of 2010), and it initially raised Democratic hopes for a takeover.

When Crist decided to run for the Senate seat, Republican prospects for keeping the seat increased dramatically. But there is another candidate on the Republican side: former speaker of the Florida House Marco Rubio, who is younger than Crist, more conservative, and of Cuban descent. Despite some conservative grumbling, most polls show Crist beating Rubio by a significant margin.

But Martinez surprised many with his early resignation. He could have served out his term and not sought re-election. Crist was then faced with a delicate choice of whom to appoint to serve out the remainder of the term. He was smart not to choose himself. Nine governors have had themselves appointed to Senate seats and stood for election, and eight of those nine lost. The only exception was Happy Chandler, governor of Kentucky and grandfather of current Representative Ben Chandler (Chandler appointed himself in 1939). And of the eight who lost, five lost in the primary. Clearly voters don’t like a governor who tries to give himself a leg up for a future election with an appointment. The issue arose again indirectly with Alaska Governor Frank Murkowski appointing his daughter to fill his own vacated Senate seat (she won, but nepotism was a significant campaign issue she had to overcome). And recent governors have learned the lessons of their predecessors: the last sitting governor who appointed himself to fill a Senate seat was Wendell Anderson (D-MN) in 1977 (he lost in the election of 1978).

The appointment of Lemieux is not the same as Crist appointing himself, but his appointment of someone so personally close to himself does point in that direction.

The likelihood is that Crist will win the primary and the general election, but he would have much preferred if Martinez had served out his term rather than forcing him to make an appointment that could damage his own election prospects.

Updating the update on the Obama administration’s failure to send a high level emissary to the 70th anniversary commemoration of the start of World War II in Warsaw tomorrow—today the administration announced it was sending National Security Advisor General Jim Jones to the ceremony. Yes, it’s the day before. Yes, it was an easy call three months ago when the Poles asked. But it’s never too late to do the right thing. Kudos to the Obama administration for listening to its critics.

Michael Auslin

Japan’s Obama Moment

By Michael Auslin

August 31, 2009, 1:38 pm

My take on the implications of Japan’s elections—turning power over to the untested but charismatic DPJ—is here.

Felix Salmon writes:

In an age where pretty much everybody agrees on the importance of increased regulation in the financial sector…

“Pretty much everybody”? He needs to get out more. All of the heavy academic lifting of late has been demonstrating the myriad ways that regulation set the stage for the financial crisis. See the work of Charlie Calomiris and others. Arnold Kling has a big paper coming out on this exact topic in two weeks.

In a positively illuminating Wall Street Journal column today, lighting expert Howard M. Brandston asks the government to take their hands off our lighting, or at the very least, to go first in uglifying the country’s lumen-verse.

Brandston’s expertise in lighting can’t be ignored: he’s been a lighting designer for 50 years, has lit up over 2,500 projects, and he even re-lit the Statue of Liberty (not to be confused with David Copperfield, who made it disappear).

As Brandston explains, the shift to compact fluorescent lights (CFL’s) is likely to render lighting less attractive, and may not offer environmental or energy-conservation benefits.

CFLs, he observes, are

not an equivalent technology to incandescents in all applications. For example, if you have dimmers used for home theater or general ambience, you must buy a compatible dimmable CFL, which costs more, and even then it may not work as desired on your dimmers. How environmental will it be for frustrated homeowners to remove and dispose of thousands of dimmers? What’s more, CFLs work best in light fixtures designed for CFLs, and may not fit, provide desired service life, or distribute light in the same pleasing pattern as incandescents. How environmental will it be for homeowners to tear out and install new light fixtures?

Invoking what some have argued in healthcare, Brandston offers a modest proposal of the “After you, my dear Alphonse” variety: Congress should, according to Brandston,

Satisfy the proposed power limits in all public buildings, from museums, houses of worship and hospitals to the White House and the homes of all elected officials. Of course, this will include replacing all incandescents with CFLs. At the end of 18 months, we would check to be certain that the former lighting had not been reinstalled, and survey all users to determine satisfaction with the resulting lighting.

Based on the data collected, the Energy Independence and Security Act and energy legislation still in Congress would be amended to conform to the results of the test. Or better yet, scrapped in favor of a thoughtful process that could yield a set of recommendations that better serve our nation’s needs by maximizing both human satisfaction and energy efficiency.

I like that idea, but then, I’ve wanted to see Al Gore go first on trimming his lifestyle back to the mud-hut level he advocates for the rest of us, and I’m fairly sure that we’ll never see that, nor will we see Congress going for fluorescent lighting that will make them look like corpses on C-SPAN. (And, having been in some congressional hearing rooms recently, I can assure you that they are chock-full of high-intensity incandescent lighting, which is only intensified by high-intensity lighting brought along by camera crews. One doesn’t sweat when testifying before Congress out of fear, as much as being suited up under lighting strong enough to keep the food warm at IHOP.)

But the most important nugget of information in Brandston’s column is this:

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 will effectively phase out incandescent light bulbs by 2012–2014 in favor of compact fluorescent lamps, or CFLs. Other countries around the world have passed similar legislation to ban most incandescents.

To me, that says it’s time to stock up on incandescent bulbs in 2011, if not in 2010.

Dan Akst chats up Michael Winerip’s terrific piece on a 58-year-old formerly highly compensated executive named Michael Blattman who can’t find a job. Dan (who has written for us here and here) believes this episode says a lot about our current economic predicament. And I think he’s right. When considering Blattman’s plight, it’s hard not to wonder what would help him.

Longtime readers of this blog know that I’m obsessed with entrepreneurship (there’s a chapter on it in my forthcoming book) and the hope for the Blattmans of the world—or, for example, the KC Star writer Mike Hendricks who was found job hunting here—is an economy where entrepreneurs can sweep up obviously talented folks such as Hendricks or Blattman and redeploy them in new ways. One of the frustrations of the current economic discussion is how little attention is paid by the White House and Capitol Hill to sustained growth driven by entrepreneurship. Without it, Blattman, Hendricks, and others will be job hunting for a long time.

Andrew Smarick

Union Contracts Must Be On the Education Table

By Andrew Smarick

August 31, 2009, 8:40 am

As Nick Schulz mentioned in a recent post, Steven Brill of the New Yorker turned in a shocking look into the “rubber rooms” of New York City public schools. In the Big Apple, and other cities for that matter, many teachers continue to receive their full salaries and benefits despite having been removed from the classroom for a range of charges. While they await hearings, these teachers sleep, play board games, or chat with one other, sometimes for years, in inconspicuous rooms in inconspicuous buildings.

While this obviously deserves attention in its own right, it raises important questions for the education portions of the federal government’s stimulus legislation, in particular the Race to the Top. To access funds from this $4.35 billion program, states must do lots of things to prove to the federal government that they are serious about education reform. One of the most noteworthy aspects of this program is that the Department of Education will be evaluating the laws and regulations of states applying for funds to make sure that such policies create an environment sufficiently hospitable to reform.

But as Brill’s article clearly shows, there is much more to a state’s education policy environment than its laws and regulations. Union contracts, with their influence over “rubber rooms,” staffing decisions, salaries, school schedules, and more, are a critically important part of this equation.

But I just did a search of the Race to the Top proposed requirements and, judging by that document, union contracts don’t even exist. The only appearances of the words “union” come in the lists of stakeholders that states and districts are required to engage as they are putting together applications. There is no mention of “union contacts” or “collective bargaining agreements” in the entire document.

The Race to the Top has many admirable features. But how in the world is a state or district supposed to make fundamental changes in compensation, tenure, teacher evaluations, and “rubber rooms” when union contracts are removed from the conversation?

There’s good news and bad news in Cuba.

The bad news: There’s a shortage of toilet paper, and officials in Havana say it will not ease until the end of the year.

The good news: Day-old copies of the Communist party’s newspaper Granma, a traditional substitute, are available for less than a U.S. penny. And that’s six to eight full, if rough, pages per day. (Source)

(H/T) Marian Tupy who says “This I remember from living in communist Czechoslovakia. Except, people used Czech Pravda, not Cuban Granma.”

The Wall Street Journal followed upon my “Diet COLA” post from several days back on the prospects for a Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment this year. The Journal’s editors said:

AARP and other self-styled senior lobbies are raising a ruckus over the news that in 2010, for the first time in 35 years, Social Security recipients won’t be getting a cost of living increase in their monthly checks. Members of Congress are calling for an investigation into the way COLAs are calculated. But the only real scandal here is the opposite of what Congress, the press and AARP are moaning about. The recent fall in prices has served up a windfall for seniors and a real $600 average increase in their Social Security payments this year.

The Journal piece is available here.

Quote of the day from Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs:

In fact, I would argue that most strategic communication problems are not communication problems at all. They are policy and execution problems. Each time we fail to live up to our values or don’t follow up on a promise, we look more and more like the arrogant Americans the enemy claims we are.

A fascinating piece on “strategic communications” from the chairman. And one of the most important lessons not learned from the Bush administration. No, I’m not talking about enhanced interrogation. It was George Bush’s promise of hope to Arabs and Muslims living under tyranny, and his utter indifference about his own administration’s failure to deliver. Far more than the aberrations of Abu Ghraib, that is the real betrayal of American values. One that the Obama administration promises, sadly, to continue.

Updating my recent post regarding the Obama’s administration’s indifference to the 70th anniversary of the start of WWII, and the ceremonies attendant in Poland, our friends over at Hot Air pile on. And rightly so. Apparently, the president’s vacation has enervated his entire team, which still can’t be bothered to roust a sitting official from the Cabinet to attend this momentous event. (One note to correct their report, however: apparently both the French and British foreign ministers are attending the event.)

Finally, thanks to all those Polish-Americans who emailed me expressing their disappointment in the White House. They too are noticing that our president seems more intent on cozying up to our enemies than maintaining our friends.

After my post on the Obama administration and the Pauline Kael syndrome, I got a fair amount of reaction, including some online, expressing dismay that I could talk about the decision to prosecute interrogators in terms of its practical political effects, when it is an issue of such transcendent moral clarity that all discussion of it must be framed in terms of moral imperatives. I revealed, inadvertently, my ethical degradation to those who were not already aware of it.

To those who were dismayed, I’ve got worse news: I think it is permissible to talk about murder and rape in amoral terms. To talk about the Inquisition, the Holocaust, and the genocides in Armenia and Cambodia in amoral terms. In fact, it is obligatory to deal with the implications of just about anything in amoral terms, because all important issues have important non-moral implications that warrant inquiry.

What bothers me is the self-righteousness of it all. Consider three issues that many people see in absolute terms: the torture/interrogation issue, abortion, and capital punishment. Given what we know about socioeconomic and political fault lines on these issues, we can be sure that large numbers of people who take an absolute position on one of the three do not take an absolute position on the other two. How can they see the nuances in two out of the three, and still think that they happen to have fixed on the one that does not admit nuances?

In a sense, I can empathize. Child abuse is an issue that I cannot imagine discussing clinically—and I especially can’t imagine analyzing child abusers dispassionately. It’s just not possible for me. But it has to be done, I have colleagues who do it, and some part of me finds it easy to understand that they can look at the issue in amoral terms for certain purposes without being morally deficient. In fact, I am perplexed by otherwise smart people who do not find it easy to understand that.

I did learn something from the reaction, however. Those famous words of Pauline Kael, “How can Nixon have won? No one I knew voted for him” weren’t quite what she said. Prof. John Pitney at Claremont McKenna sent me the actual quote, from the New York Times of 28 December 1972: “I live in a rather special world. I only know one person who voted for Nixon. Where they are I don’t know. They’re outside my ken. But sometimes when I’m in a theater I can feel them.” Sort of the same thing, I know, but then I got another email from someone who wrote, “Pauline was a good friend, and was the farthest thing from a smug, unself-aware adherent of dumb liberal cant as you could imagine . . . She undoubtedly viewed Nixon as a sick puppy. But she was no insular, snobbish Margaret Dumont.” I take his assessment at face value, and will henceforth strike “Pauline Kael Syndrome” from my rhetorical arsenal.

The indispensable RealClear mentions the FCC is going to be taking a closer look at the wireless industry and this is

potentially the first step toward more regulations intended to push down prices and increase choices for consumers.

It seems we are undergoing a great un-learning. As Steve Hayward pointed out on the blog (“Teddy Was Right”), one thing Ted Kennedy got right in his legislative career was a big push for deregulation. These deregulatory efforts lowered prices for consumers and increased choices (think airline dereg, for example). Kennedy’s efforts were informed by the law and economics revolution that swept legal and economics circles in the ’60s and ’70s (see Chris DeMuth’s remarks here for a sense of AEI’s role in that effort).

One lesson of that era is that the burden of proof is high on those who believe regulations will push down prices and increase choices (when in fact they tend to do the opposite).

Which brings us to today’s wireless. It is hard to think of an industry that has offered more innovation and choices to consumers in recent years. To illustrate, one frequent critic of the wireless industry, Tim Wu, published a paper two years ago lamenting all the things the wireless industry failed to offer customers. Take a look here. Two years later, most of those things are now product offerings. And no regulation was required. There’s an important lesson in that.

James DeLong

Counting Beans and Counting Lives

By James DeLong

August 28, 2009, 6:33 am

This week’s post on David Goldhill’s fine article “How American Health Care Killed My Father” deserves an additional note.

Goldhill comments that the cost accounting numbers used by hospitals are made of funny putty, determined by the peculiar incentives of the third-party payment system and not by the realities of providing care. (This issue of both cost accounting and pricing is also a theme of Princeton economist Uwe Reinhardt: The Pricing Of U.S. Hospital Services: Chaos Behind A Veil Of Secrecy (2006); Spending More Through ‘Cost Control:’ Our Obsessive Quest To Gut The Hospital (1996).)

The problem is indeed serious, because bad cost accounting distorts decisions. Many a business has gone bust by believing the bean counters; see: Relevance Lost: The Rise and Fall of Management Accounting (1991) and Relevance Regained (2002).

At the macro level, the consequence of bad bean counting is that the numbers at the core of the public policy debates are mythical. For example, a comatose patient dying in a hospital bed is regarded as a drain on the system only because hospital cost accounting assigns an arbitrary, and large, proportion of the hospital’s general overhead to that patient. In reality, analyzed in terms of the marginal costs of care, that patient is a profit center, generating a steady stream of income for the hospital and its staff.

If such patients are discharged, then the total costs of care might well rise, because they must be delivered less efficiently, and the hospital gets into a  spiral where its cost accountants tell it that it has saved money by the discharge when in fact it has lost money, because the overhead did not decline and must now be spread over fewer patients.

Goldhill comments:

Ten days after my father’s death, the hospital sent my mother a copy of the bill for his five-week stay: $636,687.75. He was charged $11,590 per night for his ICU room; $7,407 per night for a semiprivate room before he was moved to the ICU; $145,432 for drugs; $41,696 for respiratory services. Even the most casual effort to compare these prices to marginal costs or to the costs of off-the-shelf components demonstrates the absurdity of these numbers, but why should my mother care? Her share of the bill was only $992; the balance, undoubtedly at some huge discount, was paid by Medicare.

A final irony is that the uninsured, supposedly the objects of such national solicitude, would be expected to pay the full charge, without any of the discounts routinely granted the big players, and most families would be forced into bankruptcy.

Or not, because Goldhill notes that his father went into the hospital with pneumonia and died of sepsis and other iatrogenic causes. A widow presented with a hospital bill for $636,687 (and 75 cents) for polishing off her husband might prefer the alternative of consulting her neighborhood tort lawyer.

James V. DeLong is vice president and senior analyst with the Convergence Law Institute and special counsel with the law firm Kamlet Reichert.

Steven Brill has a jaw-dropping article in the latest New Yorker on the New York City public school system. Rick Hess brought NYC school chief Joel Klein to AEI a few months ago to discuss his reform efforts, and there is no doubt Klein is doing an admirable job; but to understand the insanity—no other word will do—Klein is up against you have to read Brill’s piece, which is chock-full of tremendous reporting. Most noteworthy is Brill’s discussion of the incompetent (at best) teachers who are kept out of the classroom in so-called “rubber rooms” around the city but nonetheless kept on the payroll for years—several continuing to make over $100,000 a year—thanks to union protections.

Meanwhile, in BusinessWeek Vivek Wadhwa highlights call centers created by entrepreneurs in Ohio who pay their best front-line workers more than 100K a year. That’s not a typo. Wadhwa’s article debunks a number of myths about trade, outsourcing, and other politically charged topics (AMERICAN readers may recognize Wadhwa’s name for his essay on the country’s other immigration crisis).

When Newt says there is a world that works and a world that fails, these are two good examples of what he’s talking about.

Norman J. Ornstein

There Is No Replacement

By Norman J. Ornstein

August 27, 2009, 7:37 am

One of my best memories is playing tennis with Ted Kennedy on the Senate tennis court, with Chris Dodd and Kennedy’s longtime aide and friend Nick Littlefield. Kennedy was a great trash talker, and kept up patter, and insults, throughout the match, including during points. Despite his bulk, he was quick and agile, a good athlete as were so many in his family. It was enormous fun, but also showed a side of Kennedy that was an important part of his persona, and of his incredible power to work with and sway his colleagues. He had a great sense of humor, an ability to poke fun at others and himself in ways that endeared. He was magnetic, truly larger than life. And he built bonds with all kinds of people, including many top-flight staffers who worked for him for decades, who stayed because of him when they could have made millions outside the Senate, and who contributed to his breadth and power. Kennedy was a mensch to his colleagues, whatever their political persuasion, and to many others, in small ways and large. He was a natural legislator and a genuine workhorse—even during the carousing years. He was a passionate ideologue, but did not hesitate to find a middle ground, to make concessions, to bring in ideological opposites, and to find that sweet spot in legislation that could bring broad bipartisan support. He was one of the handful of the most significant senators of the 20th century. There is no replacement.

Steven F. Hayward

Teddy Was Right

By Steven F. Hayward

August 26, 2009, 3:26 pm

Quick, who said this:

The problems of our economy have occurred not as an outgrowth of laissez-faire, unbridled competition.  They have occurred under the guidance of federal agencies, and under the umbrella of federal regulations.

Answer: Sen. Ted Kennedy, in defending trucking deregulation in 1978. (The staffer who did his legislative work on the idea was a young attorney named Stephen Breyer.)

James DeLong

When American Healthcare is Deadly

By James DeLong

August 26, 2009, 7:49 am

The Atlantic’s “How American Health Care Killed My Father,” written by a business executive whose 83-year-old father went into the hospital with pneumonia and died 5 weeks later of sepsis and other iatrogenic causes, harnesses personal outrage to financial expertise to produce an absorbing analysis of the healthcare system. Starting with the puzzle of why hospitals are having difficulty installing simple precautions to protect against the spread of infections (shades of Semmelweis), author David Goldhill examines the perverse incentive structures that turn skill and dedication into inefficient and over-priced institutions and outcomes.

The big lesson: The financial problems, like the spread of sepsis, are iatrogenic, starting with the fact that the customers to be kept happy are not the patients but the payers and the hospitals, and the result is “a wasteful insurance system; distorted incentives; a bias toward treatment; moral hazard; hidden costs and lack of transparency; curbed competition; service to the wrong customer. These are the problems of our health-care system, resulting in a slow rot and requiring more and more money just to keep the system from collapsing.” Goldhill notes that his father’s stay was actually highly profitable for the hospital, which billed Medicare $636,687.75, and “even the most casual effort to compare these prices to marginal costs or to costs of off-the-shelf components demonstrates the absurdity of these [itemized] numbers.”

The bigger lesson: Current proposals bear little relationship to real problems, and will do little except add a few more special-interest-generated tiers to the house of cards, and further dysfunctions to the incentive structures. The right course is to move to a system driven by the patient-as-customer, combined with catastrophe insurance.

James V. DeLong is vice president and senior analyst with the Convergence Law Institute and special counsel with the law firm Kamlet Reichert.

Philip I. Levy

The Ticking Clock on Aid Reform

By Philip I. Levy

August 26, 2009, 7:46 am

Carol Adelman and my colleague Nick Eberstadt have a thoughtful new piece on U.S. foreign aid policy in the latest Weekly Standard. They laud President Obama for the new directions he espoused on his recent visit to Africa and propose a series of appealing ideas of their own. In the midst of this, they gently note that the Obama administration has yet to nominate either a USAID administrator or a head of the Millennium Challenge Account.

Adelman and Eberstadt are diplomatic on this point, but it’s a very serious problem. While the Obama administration may be on a par with its predecessors in filling executive branch slots, the delay in the foreign assistance realm is especially costly for anyone who hoped to see serious reform.

Any such reform will involve some fundamental rethinking about how America engages with the developing world. To its credit, the State Department has launched just such a broad rethink: the Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review (QDDR), modeled on the Defense Department’s regular strategy reconsiderations. The process is to be led by three individuals: Deputy Secretary of State Jack Lew, State Department Director of Policy Planning Anne-Marie Slaughter, and a player to be named later.

Just kidding. The third individual is USAID Acting Administrator Alonzo Fulgham. For all I know, he may be one of the world’s more capable individuals, but he’s in an impossible position. It would be difficult enough for a confirmed USAID administrator to weigh in against two leading State Department principals; it’s asking too much for an acting administrator to push hard on policy reform for the next four years.

And yet, the moment for reform is fleeting. If the strategic rethink is to have any practical implications, it will need to be linked to resource reallocation. Already, the QDDR folks are feeling the time pressure. Deputy Secretary Lew described the problem:

We’re in a world where, as early as the middle of September, we have to have our budget proposals in at the White House for next year, for 2011. At the end of the year, beginning of next year, it has to be locked up so that our proposals for 2011 are set.

Federal budgets have incredibly long lead times. State and USAID are currently crafting proposals that will be forwarded to OMB in the fall. OMB will incorporate these into its plans, which will come out around February 2010 as the president’s fiscal 2011 budget proposal. That will then go to Congress, which will make its own changes, ideally before the start of the 2011 fiscal year, which runs from October 1, 2010 to September 30, 2011.

Once State and USAID have sent off their ideas for the budget, it’s hard to have any major changes. That means that even if the president nominates a new USAID administrator as soon as he’s back from Martha’s Vineyard, and even if that administrator were to be confirmed in record time by a very busy Senate, the administrator could begin to try to effect real change in fiscal 2012. He or she would presumably be constrained by the well-advanced directives of the QDDR. As Adelman and Eberstadt rightly argue, there’s tremendous room for improvement in the U.S. approach to foreign assistance, but time’s a wasting.

This weekend, Admiral Mike Mullen and Senator John McCain expressed concern about weakening public support for the war in Afghanistan. Indeed, two recent polls by major pollsters show deteriorating support. It’s important for leaders to be aware of public opinion, but they need a fuller picture than the one these new polls provide. There are two important differences in the polling on the Iraq war and the polling on Afghanistan now. The first has to do with the intensity. From March 2004 to January 2008, Americans told Gallup pollsters that the war in Iraq was the country’s top problem. When Gallup last asked that question in early August, 33 percent said the economy was our top problem and another 14 percent mentioned unemployment. Only 5 percent mentioned the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan. Afghanistan is on the back burner for most Americans today, giving the administration maneuvering room. Second, the president has solid support of his handling of Afghanistan. Most Americans, including Admiral Mullen and Senator McCain, are worried that the war effort is not going well for the United States, but their concerns should not be interpreted as outright opposition. Americans are clear on the objectives. They want them to be prosecuted successfully.

The two areas of Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) foreign policy that most interest advocates of a strong U.S.-Japan relationship are the party’s positions towards China and the UN. Many observers presume that Japan under DPJ President (and likely premier) Yukio Hatoyama will follow former party leader Ichiro Ozawa’s goal to make Japan more independent of the United States. In an op-ed last week in the Christian Science Monitor entitled “Japan Must Shake Off U.S.-Style Globalization,” Hatoyama wrote that Japan “must not forget” its identity as an Asian nation and that East Asia is “Japan’s basic sphere of being.” Within that sphere, Hatoyama reminds his readers, China is becoming the dominant player as he sees the slow but inevitable decline of the United States over the next two to three decades. This sets up a political justification to potentially move closer to China for reasons of self-interest.

There is little question that Tokyo, like Washington, will continue to engage Beijing, even as it tries to figure out a non-confrontational, but credible, hedging strategy. China has always been, and will always be, the most important country in the world for Japan. Japanese fear a strong China as much as they worry about a weak China, and many see their millennial-long history with that country as a more natural, if complicated, relationship than with the United States. The fact that China is Japan’s largest trading partner, with over $266 billion of bilateral trade in 2008, ensures that Tokyo must work constantly to maintain cordial and productive political relations (by comparison, U.S.-Japan trade in 2008 was approximately $205 billion). Ozawa himself led a massive, 450-person delegation to China back in December 2007, where he toasted future Japan-China ties with Chinese President Hu Jintao. Those who have talked to DPJ leaders know that there appears to be no unanimity within the party on China policy. Rather, it is likely that once in power, different factions within the party will debate over the appropriate degree of DPJ outreach to Beijing.

At the same time, the DPJ has also built its foreign policy opposition to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) by advocating greater Japanese participation in multilateral and regional mechanisms. Hatoyama, in his CS Monitor piece, hedged a narrow (and unrealistic) Sino-Japanese focus by calling for Japan to lead in shaping “integration and collective security in the Asia-Pacific region” while adhering to the principles of pacifism enshrined in the Japanese constitution. Yet, with Japan contributing far less to international peacekeeping operations than, say, China, and considering the amount of time it takes for Japan’s Diet to approve the special measures laws that allow dispatch of forces abroad, it is hard to see what kind of leadership role the DPJ intends to bring to Asian collective security.

For Japan to play a larger role in Asia, it must also resolve the numerous outstanding points of contention it has with its neighbors. However, neither Hatoyama’s op-ed nor the DPJ’s election manifesto give any specifics as to what issues, territorial (such as the Senkakus or Takeshima) or historical (such as the textbooks controversy), the DPJ will be willing to bring up for regional discussion. Without such bold moves, it is unlikely that Hatoyama’s desire for Japan to play a larger regional role will gain any traction. These issues, dating from World War II and before, will likely bedevil the DPJ as much as they have the LDP, which has never found the right balance between domestic and foreign demands on such explosive problems.

That leaves the UN as an arena where the DPJ will likely attempt to play a bigger role. Japan is already deeply involved in UN activities and organizations, and the DPJ shares the long-held LDP desire of gaining a permanent (non-veto) seat on the UN Security Council. Yet former party leader Ichiro Ozawa has long had an even more radical view of aligning Japanese policy more closely with UN security resolutions. Ozawa has mused publicly about reducing Japan’s cooperation with U.S. global security activities (such as anti-terrorist operations) and yet fully participating in UN-sanctioned military activities, such as against the Taliban in Afghanistan. In this, Ozawa is undoubtedly out far ahead of his countrymen and likely most of his own party. Will Hatoyama follow Ozawa’s lead? Both the DPJ and the LDP currently have moved to comply with UN inspections resolutions against North Korean ships, which is clearly in Japan’s self-interest. The question is whether a DPJ government will attempt to “normalize” (to use Ozawa’s old phrase) Japan more fully by embracing riskier operations under UN mandates. If so, then how such activities align or not with U.S.-Japan alliance priorities may become a larger question in our bilateral relations. First indications will come with the naming of cabinet ministers and their early, and probably benign, statements of foreign and defense policy.

Go here to see Sally Satel take on the National Kidney Foundation and other opponents of compensating kidney donors.

One week from now will mark the 70th anniversary of the invasion of Poland by Nazi Germany and the beginning of the Second World War. Poland will be observing the date with commemorations attended by heads of state and foreign ministers including Germany’s Angela Merkel, Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and British and French Foreign Ministers David Milliband and Bernard Kouchner. All told, 42 countries have confirmed attendance, 13 will send their head of state or government, and all others are coming at ministerial level.

Hundreds of thousands of Americans died in the war; the men and women who fought are honored as our greatest generation. Tens of millions died across Europe. Six million Jews perished in the Holocaust that ensued. Fascism was defeated, Communism began its dread march, and modern Western Europe was born.

And how does the Obama administration see it? Apparently, not at all. Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), in Poland for the ceremonies, smacked down the administration for not having identified anyone to represent the United States at this commemoration just days before it takes place (it was asked three months ago). But neither congressional outrage nor discreet Polish umbrage have stirred the vacationing president. Rum-int had it that the administration was trying to palm off former SecState Madeleine Albright on the Poles. Now ex-SecDef Bill Perry may be thrown across the pond. But no member of Obama’s cabinet can be found to represent America in the midst of all these other world leaders.

Have we truly forgotten the perils of tyranny? Do we respect our servicemen, our allies, our values so little? Isn’t this worth a visit from Joe Biden? Hillary Clinton? A sitting member of the Obama administration? For shame.

Nick Schulz

Goldberg Hangs It Up

By Nick Schulz

August 25, 2009, 3:56 pm

Jonah Goldberg has posted his last at the Liberal Fascism blog. He deserves enormous credit for writing a courageous and important book, an immense best-seller in both hardcover and in paperback, topping the NY Times list—how many books that talk up Eric Voegelin‘s ideas at length can claim that? It’s a pity that today’s immanentizers of the eschaton tried to dismiss it without reading it.


The American Enterprise Institute takes no institutional positions on policy advocacy or political campaigns. The views expressed on The Enterprise Blog represent those of the individual writers.

AEI